Yemen’s Hidden War

Yemen’s Byzantine, fractious politics seem to confound even experienced observers. And yet, looking at what has already happened in Libya, Iraq and Syria, there seemed to be a precedent. Yemen’s war will intensify. Rival sides will splinter into even smaller, more brutal militias. Regional powers will pour fuel on the fire in the pursuit of their own rivalries and domestic agendas, despite the risk of blowback. The international community will stand by helplessly. A massive human tragedy will unfold, shattering millions of lives and sending refugees into teeming camps and to the shores of an unwelcoming West. And a succession of increasingly nihilistic jihadist groups, the war’s only winners, will thrive and pose a grave threat to the world.

“The world hasn’t learned anything from the Syrian experience,” Faqih, the human rights activist, tells me. “What’s happening in Yemen is creating an environment that encourages jihadist groups. They have been dreaming of this day.”

It may not be too late for Yemen. It may be that the genies of war and sectarian madness can somehow be put back in their bottles. If the U.S. can pressure Saudi Arabia and the coalition into ceasing the bombing and blockade, and in return the Houthis agree to stop their march on the rest of the country; if Saudi Arabia and Iran can be persuaded to leave Yemen out of their rivalry; and all sides within Yemen return to the table at Geneva — then maybe, just maybe, the country has a chance.

Faqih looks out the window. “I think the worst case is coming, without a miracle,” he says, and chuckles bitterly. “And there are no miracles.”

On the night before Ramadan begins — my last night in Yemen — a series of car bombs go off around Sana’a. Three hit mosques in the city, and another targets the offices of Ansar Allah’s political committee. At the scene, I meet Bukhaiti, the Houthi leader I had interviewed, examining a hunk of twisted metal that had been a Hyundai Sonata. The bombings would soon be claimed by ISIS, but Bukhaiti isn’t in the mood to make distinctions. “The Saudis, as well as Al Qaeda and ISIS — it’s all the same,” he says, his face made gaunt by the beam of a flashlight. “We’re expecting that there will be more.”