WTF Happened to Trump and Clinton in Wisconsin, Explained

Even so, Chaos in Cleveland is not yet a foregone conclusion. As the delegate-counting maven who goes by @Taniel on Twitter put it, “Trump’s big loss in WI doesn’t shut down road to 1237, but removes margin of error. Now needs big wins in NY/CA/CT & wins in NJ/DE/MD/PA/IN.”

Anything else I need to know?
Ted Cruz is still not the Zodiac Killer. (Probably.) But 37 percent of Wisconsin GOP voters said they’re scared or concerned about what he’d do as president; 13 percent voted for him anyway.

THE DEMOCRATS

The Sanders hot streak is still alive?
Yes, as are Bernie’s (very, very) slender hopes of overtaking Clinton in the battle for pledged delegates. Bernie’s sixth consecutive victory was one of his most impressive of the campaign, toppling the frontrunner by 13 points, 56-to-43.

What was the key to victory?
Much like in his Michigan win, independent voters in the open primary made the difference for Sanders. Indies comprised 27 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, and Sanders won them in a landslide: 72-to-28. But unlike Michigan, where Clinton won among Democrats (58-to-40), in Wisconsin Sanders and Clinton split Democrats 50-50. This is explained, in part, by demographics: Non-white voters made up 30 percent of the Democratic primary electorate in Michigan, but just 17 percent in Wisconsin. (Clinton took the Wisconsin black vote by a familiar 69-to-31.)

Were there any surprises?
Unlike in past primaries where Clinton has done better among affluent voters, Bernie took every income bracket in Wisconsin — including voters with family income up to $199,999. In addition, Sanders edged out Clinton among women voters (50-to-49). The issue terrain was also odd in Wisconsin — particularly on the contentious issue of trade. Sanders won over 60 percent of voters who believe trade destroys U.S. jobs and 55 percent of those who believe it creates U.S. jobs.

Give it to me straight: Is Bernie still in this thing?
Barely. As impressive as Sanders’ victory was in Wisconsin, he’ll need to average a repeat performance in every contest left — including very challenging terrain in places like Puerto Rico — to have a chance at the lead in earned delegates.

Where do we go from here?
After being humbled of late by Sanders’ ragtag revolution, Clinton will have her best chance to strike back in the Empire State. New York votes on Tuesday, April 19th.