How Many Electoral College Votes Will Joe Biden Win? - Rolling Stone
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How Many Electoral College Votes Will Joe Biden Win?

Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina still have Electoral College votes up for grabs

WILMINGTON, DE - NOVEMBER 04: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks one day after Americans voted in the presidential election, on November 04, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. Biden spoke as votes are still being counted in his tight race against incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump which remains too close to call. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks one day after Americans voted in the presidential election, on November 4th, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware.

Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden has defeated Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Nevada — and, more importantly, in the 2020 election — according to calls by the Associated Press and the major networks. Read Rolling Stone‘s full Biden-victory coverage here.

All that’s left now is the final counting. Biden is at 279 Electoral College votes with his Pennsylvania and Nevada victories, and there are still 42 votes up for grabs in the three states: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. (If you want to really stretch it, the AP hasn’t called Alaska (3 votes) because of the high number of votes left to be counted, but Trump has a commanding lead and is widely expected to triumph.)

Biden trails in North Carolina (15 votes) and seems unlikely to close the gap, but he’s leading in Arizona (11) and Georgia (16). If those margins hold, Biden will have 306 Electoral College votes — the same tally Trump took in 2016 and a margin of victory he’s called a “a massive landslide.”

Arizona — 11 Electoral College Votes

Fox News and the AP called Arizona for Biden early Wednesday morning, a projection that would give him 11 Electoral College votes and all but deliver him the presidency. But that call remains controversial, as there are votes left to be tallied and the composition of those ballots is uncertain enough to cause outlets like the New York Times, which usually follow AP’s lead on these calls, to hold off.

As Monday morning, Biden’s lead over Trump in state had shrunk to about 20,000 votes.

Chuck Coughlin, a Republican political consultant in Arizona, told Rolling Stone that most of the remaining ballots out of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, are “late earlies” — absentee ballots that voters submitted at the end of the early-voting process. The key question, Coughlin says, is whether those late-earliers break in favor of Trump or Biden.

It still appears Biden will win Arizona and net 11 more Electoral College votes, but as of Monday it’s still too close to call.

Georgia — 16 Electoral College Votes

As of Monday, Biden’s lead in the state stood at just over 11,000 votes. Because the margin is so slim, a call may not be made until still-outstanding provisional ballots and mailed ballots from military members overseas can be tabulated. On Friday morning, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced that there will be a recount in the state, citing the razor-thin margin. That means Georgia election officials won’t announce a final result for at least several weeks. But as of now, it’s looking good for Biden.

Georgia was never pivotal for Biden’s path to 270. But going into election night, there were hopes he might turn a longtime red state blue. Biden is now on the verge of becoming the first Democrat to win the state since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Nevada — 6 Electoral College Votes, Called for Biden

Shortly after Pennsylvania was called for Biden on Saturday morning, the AP called Nevada for him, bringing his total up to 285 Electoral College votes.

Nevada is a swing state that has leaned reliably blue for Democrats in recent elections, thanks in large part to the political machine built former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in and around Las Vegas.

As of Monday morning, Biden had won just over 35,000 more votes than Trump in the state. Most of the outstanding ballots to be reported are in Clark County, home to Las Vegas and a Democratic stronghold.

North Carolina — 15 Electoral College Votes

North Carolina still hasn’t been called but it seems likely to go to Trump. As of Monday morning, Trump had won just over 75,000 more votes there.

Can Biden make up the difference? It doesn’t look likely, but it isn’t impossible. While the few counties still to report more votes like Forsyth and Cumberland lean Democratic, Biden would have to win huge percentages of those few ballots to surpass Trump’s statewide total and claim North Carolina’s 15 Electoral College votes.

Pennsylvania — 20 Electoral College Votes, Called for Biden

With Biden stretching his lead to more than 30,000 votes in the Keystone State, the call desks at AP and the major TV networks began calling the state for him on Saturday a bit before 11:30 a.m. ET. There are more than 80,000 votes left to be tallied from areas that favor Biden and Trump has no path back. As of Monday morning, Biden’s lead in the state stood at just over 45,000 votes.

Adding a bit of poetry to the final result, it was the 20 Electoral College votes from his home childhood home state that propelled Biden to victory.

Is Trump Conceding?

It isn’t looking like it. On Saturday morning, the Trump campaign released a statement calling the election “far from over” and, promising legal challenges, lying that the ballots Biden wants counted are “fraudulent.”

Also, though: Who cares? Trump is in charge of this presidency, but voters are in charge of picking the next one — and they just elected Biden. Trump and his team may make more legal moves to overturn the will of the people, and we should all be vigilant of those. But Trump refusing to concede doesn’t make his loss any less real.

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