I predict that Obama is going to pad his delegate lead slightly tonight. Clinton may win Ohio, and may even nose out a popular vote victory in Texas’ primary, but both of those will be undone, in my guestimation, by an Obama rout in the “precinct primaries” otherwise known as Texas’ caucus.
The optics will be important. If she can get CNN to paint Texas her color even if she’s lost the delegate battle, for example, it’ll look like she’s got something going.
Of course, unless she pulls some stunning upsets tonight the math just doesn’t work for her. And even if she does achieve the improbable, the math is still unkind.
So what’s she doing?
Hanging around for the next six weeks — at least through Pennsylvania — hoping for an Obama implosion. For something truly icky to come out of the Rezko trial. For some equivalent of the Times/McCain affair to surface for Obama. Waiting in the wings for some meltdown radioactive enough that the Democratic base — and by extension the super delegates who have to face these voters’ wrath at the polls — get caught up in a panicked case of buyer’s remorse.
It’s not a likely scenario. If there were anything that juicy about Obama, Clinton would surely have leaked it to Drudge by now. No?
But I think Clinton learned the lesson of Mitt Romney. Fuck the “good of the party.” If you want to win, keep yourself in the equation as long as you plausibly can, and try to start a feeding frenzy the instant a drop of blood hits the water.