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Rolling Tsunami Tuesday Analysis Thread

Remind me never to trust another Zogby poll again.

Tie Goes to Obama: based on generous delegate projections for Clinton in California, MSNBC is roughly projecting an 841/837 delegate split… with Obama on top. In other words, a Tsunami tie.

Alaska! The biggest [land-mass] victory of all goes to … Obama.

Missouri goes for Obama? This is his big state. Another real surprise. Goes a long way for him plausibly claiming a tie tonight.

Clinton takes California. This is huge for her. It will be interesting to see what the delegate count in California is, but it looks like she’s got a monster lead in the popular vote.

California for McCain. I think we have a nominee. So long, Romney. It was fun while the flip-flops lasted. [Chris Matthews is already talking about the Romney “autopsy” ouch.]
Missouri for McCain — if he hadn’t taken that it could have been disaster for him tonight.

Obama’s line of the night: “Change will not come if we wait for some other person. Or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we’ve been waiting for.”

If you’re a Democrat you’ve got to love McCain’s incompetence as a speechmaker. He gives terrible teleprompter. God the contrast between he and Obama would be glorious. But even Hillary Clinton would sound like MLK in contrast.

Clinton takes Arizona.

California exit poll looks really tough for Obama. 65 percent of Hispanics voted for Hillary. 72 percent of Asians did. Tops 60 percent of Hispanic men. She’s winning 55-40 among Democrats.

Idaho for Obama.

Mike Huckabee is having a hell of a night. Georgia. Arkansas. Alabama. If he wins Missouri and Romney takes California, McCain could be in trouble again.

Connecticut for Obama. That’s a win in Clinton’s backyard. The first real surprise of the night.

Huckabee tries to box out Romney: “They’ve been saying this is a two-man race. Well it is. And we’re in it.”

Obama takes North Dakota and Utah.

Obama takes Kansas caucus.

840 is majority number for delegates tonight. So far 315 Obama 215 Clinton, according to NBC.

New Jersey goes Clinton.

Tonight is going to be all about the blowouts. Obama has two early: Illinois and Georgia. Clinton has ones in Oklahoma, Arkansas. We’ll see how the New York delegate count shakes out.

Delaware goes Obama.

MSNBC is coloring in Florida and Michigan for Hillary. An edge to her on the optics.

Clinton takes New York.

Massachusetts goes Clinton.

Chris Todd on MSNBC is talking about the delegate splits that look tighter in some cases than the popular vote — Tennessee, for example, looks like a pretty even delegate split.

I’m not paying much attention to the Republican side. Sorry for whomever got that salmon color. Oh. It’s Huckabee. I don’t feel so bad anymore.

I was wondering how they would handle the color coding. Obama is turquoise on MSNBC. Clinton dark blue.

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