The Next Recession Is Going to Be Brutal

But sooner or later, the current economic expansion — by many measures the longest in U.S. history — is going to end. And that’s particularly troubling when you consider how many Americans continue to fare poorly even in the current “strong economy.”

Some 40 percent of American families struggled to cover the cost of food, health care, housing or utilities last year, according to a report from the Urban Institute. A Fed found four in 10 adults couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense. Even at the current low unemployment rate, about 6 million workers are actively looking for jobs right now — and that doesn’t include part-time workers looking for more hours or those who want work but have stopped looking. Men in the prime of their lives are employed at lower rates than they were before the last recession. Suicide rates are spiking, driving down U.S. life expectancy.

A Gallup poll released in January found 48 percent of Americans felt economic conditions were worsening — a trend that had steadily progressed in preceding months — despite the fundamentals remaining strong. At issue was the fact that the benefits of a strong economy were not being broadly shared by all Americans. 

Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell called the dynamic out in two speeches he delivered at the end of last year. “The benefits of this strong economy and sound financial system have not reached all Americans,” he explained. “The aggregate statistics tend to mask important disparities by income, race and geography.”

A recession could take many of those families struggling on the margins and push them squarely into poverty. A family that can’t cover a $400 expense definitely isn’t ready to weather an unexpected layoff. And workers already struggling to find jobs will fare worse if and when the number of openings plummet and the number of unemployed job seekers climbs. 

The fact that there are so many Americans still struggling highlights the opportunity President Trump and Republicans missed when they slashed taxes for corporations, businesses and the wealthy, rather than, say, shoring up social safety net accounts, investing in economic development in marginalized communities, funding worker training programs to help them transition to more stable jobs — or even just paying off some of the nation’s debt.

Instead, of course, Republicans promised the working-class and poor would get their share as benefits trickled down in the form of a tax cut-fueled economic explosion. Whether that was a lie or a delusion doesn’t matter now. The economy is showing signs of turning, and the people who saw the least benefit from the latest boom are now the most vulnerable ahead of the next bust.