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Poll-a-Pallooza

From Talking Points Memo:

ABC/WaPo: Clinton 47%, Obama 43%

Pew: Clinton 46%, Obama 38%

NYT/CBS: Clinton 41%, Obama 41%

USAToday/Gallup: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%

One quick thought about these national polls as they relate to Tsunami Tuesday.

To this date, Clinton has had a consistent lead in states that Obama has not yet contested, but this lead can quickly evaporate once Obama shows up on air and on the campaign trail.  See for instance: California.

These national polls are likely to be skewed in Clinton’s favor by in big, non-Tsunami Tuesday states like Texas and Pennsylvania, where Clinton has a substantial advantage based on name recognition. My gut tells me you have to give Obama a 2 or 3 point bump from his national average to reflect his average in the states that will be fought for on Tuesday.

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