Elizabeth Warren has jumped into second place nationally in a poll of the Democratic 2020 field. The Economist/YouGov survey shows her surge has come at the expense of Bernie Sanders, who now sits in third place.
No surprise: The poll finds Joe Biden still comfortably in first place. But the former vice president’s ceiling is remarkably low: Just 26 percent of voters who intend to participate in the primaries and caucuses list Biden as their first choice.
Warren moves into second place at 16 percent (up 5 points from a YouGov poll a week ago), while Sanders registers at 12 percent support (shedding 4 points). The survey underscores that the race for the Democratic nomination is wide open. If treated as a candidate, “Not sure” comes in third at 14 percent. No other candidate registers in double digits.
While it’s just one poll, the YouGov survey aligns with broader polling data that indicates a softening of support for Sanders, and with the betting market PredictIt, which also has Warren in second place in the race for the 2020 nomination. Warren has also just grabbed second in a new poll of Nevada, an early-voting state:
New Monmouth poll of Nevada:
Biden – 36%
Warren – 19%
Sanders – 13%
Buttigieg – 7%
Harris – 6%
First poll in any early state that has Warren over Sanders.
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) June 12, 2019
Although Democrats are broadly (80 percent) satisfied with the candidates they have to choose from, the YouGov poll reveals that voters have strong negative feelings about several of the candidates in the race — including both frontrunners and also-rans. Four candidates have “very unfavorable” ratings in the 30s. Sanders registers at 33 percent on this score, while Biden, Bill de Blasio and Warren all sit at 30 percent.
The HuffPost’s polling editor, digging directly into YouGov’s data, has unearthed another gem. If you assume, as many do, that Biden’s support is soft, and inflated by familiarity or name recognition, it’s helpful to know which candidates his backers might turn to instead. That figure suggests who in the 2020 race has room to surge.
On this measure Kamala Harris comes out on top, despite being the first choice of only 6 percent of voters overall.
Deleted first version of this because I left out Booker number, apologies:
Who Biden-first-choice voters are also considering, per new Economist/YouGov:
Rest of field: <10% each
— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) June 12, 2019
Harris also wins on another important metric. Only 5 percent of registered Democrats say they would be disappointed if she became the nominee, compared to 7 percent for Warren, 17 percent for Biden, 20 percent for Sanders and 22 percent for the unloved de Blasio.