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Which Band Will Reunite Next? Placing Odds on 14 Groups, from Led Zeppelin to N’Sync

We gauge the chances for a reunion of Oasis, REM, Pink Floyd and 12 other dormant acts

Paul Westerberg, Bob Stinson, Tommy Stinson and Chris Mars of the The Replacements

Paul Natkin/Wire Image

After months of rumors, The Replacements finally announced the first dates of their upcoming reunion tour last night. They haven't announced the exact line-up of the band, but it's certain that frontman Paul Westerberg and bassist Tommy Stinson will be back. Original drummer Chris Mars is still alive and healthy, but he's completely retired from music and fully devoted to his art career. Still, the chance of a big fat payday might get him back behind the kit. Guitarist Bob Stinson died in 1995, so it's very unclear who will get that gig.

When we first put together our list of possible band reunions last year we said the odds of a Replacement reunion was 60%. In hindsight, we were probably lowballing them. Click through to see our predictions regarding the possible reunions of Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin, The Kinks and many others. 

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The Smiths

Why They Split: The Smiths accomplished a lot during their five-year run, but when guitarist Johnny Marr quit the band in the summer of 1987 they simply couldn't continue – despite a brief attempt to soldier on with guitarist Ivor Perry. 

Last Performance: London's Brixton Academy on December 12th, 1986. They finished the set with "Hand In Glove," which was their first single just four years earlier. 

Odds Of A Reunion: Relations within The Smiths have been extremely poor for quite some time, especially after drummer Mike Joyce sued Morrissey for recording royalties. (Read this 2005 letter for Morrissey's take on the situation.) Morrissey hates even being asked about the possibility of a reunion, famously saying that he'd rather "eat his own testicles" than reunite with The Smiths. This one seems really, really unlikely. We'll say 10%. 

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Oasis

Why They Split: Years of tension within Oasis finally reached a boiling point backstage at a Paris festival in August of 2009. Reports vary wildly about what happened, but the Gallagher brothers got into some sort of physical altercation and then refused to take the stage. The rest of the tour was canceled. "With some sadness and great relief I quit Oasis tonight," Noel Gallagher said in a statement. "People will write and say what they like, but I simply could not go on working with Liam a day longer."

Last Performance: The final gig took place August 22nd, 2009 at the V Festival in Weston England. The Paris fight was six days later.  

Odds Of A Reunion: When Oasis split, Liam Gallagher continued on with the rest of the band as Beady Eye. Noel formed Noel Gallagher's High Flying Birds. Both are rather successful, but not nearly on the same level as Oasis. The brothers have spent the last two and a half years attacking each other in the press, even as Liam expresses a desire to reform Oasis in 2015 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of (What's The Story) Morning Glory. We obviously aren't sure if that's going to happen, but a reunion at some point seems extremely likely. We'll say 85%. 

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