Fearless Oscar Nomination Forecast: If I'm Wrong, Mock Me Tomorrow! - Rolling Stone
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Fearless Oscar Nomination Forecast: If I’m Wrong, Mock Me Tomorrow!

On Tuesday AM, the Academy of Motion Picture Old Farts & Sciences will announce its 2010 Oscar nominations, including 10 candidates instead of the usual five for Best Picture. Here are my predictions in the major categories with some side notes on long shots and who will get royally screwed. Play along, why don’t you? And feel free to tell me where I’ve screwed up big time.

**Best Picture**


The Hurt Locker

Up in the Air


Inglourious Basterds

An Education

District 9



A Serious Man

**Maybes**: Star Trek, The Hangover, (500) Days of Summer, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Blind Side (please gods of cinema, don’t let this happen!)

**Most Deserving But It Won’t Get In**: The Messenger

**Best Actor**

• Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart*)

• George Clooney (Up in the Air*)

• Colin Firth (A Single Man*)

• Morgan Freeman (Invictus*)

• Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker*)

**Maybes**: Sam Rockwell (Moon*),Joseph Gordon-Levitt ((500) Days of Summer*), Tobey Maguire (Brothers*), Ben Foster (The Messenger*), Viggo Mortensen (The Road*), Daniel Day Lewis (Nine*), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station*), Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man*), Nicolas Cage (Bad Lieutenant*), Michael Sheen (The Damned United*), Joaquin Phoenix (Two Lovers*)

**Most Deserving But He Won’t Get In**: Sharlto Copely (District 9*)

**Best Actress**

• Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side*)

• Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia*)

• Carey Mulligan (An Education*)

• Gabourey Sidibe (Precious*)

• Helen Mirren (The Last Station*)

**Maybes**: Abbie Cornish (Bright Star*), Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria), Zoe Deschanel ((500) Days of Summer*), Marion Cotillard (Nine*), Zoe Saldana (Avatar*), Michelle Pfeiffer (Cheri*), Penélope Cruz (Broken Embraces*), Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones*), Shohreh Aghdashloo (The Stoning of Soraya M*), Catalina Saavedra (The Maid*), Yolande Moreau (Séraphine*)

**Most Deserving But She Won’t Get In**: Tilda Swinton (Julia)

**Best Supporting Actor**

• Christoph Waltz (*Inglourious Basterds*)

• Woody Harrelson (*The Messenger*)

• Stanley Tucci (*The Lovely Bones*)

• Matt Damon (*Invictus*)

• Christopher Plummer (*The Last Station*)

**Maybes**: Christian McKay (*Me & Orson Welles*), Anthony Mackie (*The Hurt Locker*), Fred Melamed (*A Serious Man*), Zack Galifinakis (*Hangover*), Alfred Molina (*An Edication*), Peter Sarsgaard (*An Education*), Paul Schneider (*Bright Star*), Stephen Lang (*Avatar*), Alec Baldwin (*It’s Complicated*)

**Most Deserving But He Won’t Get In**: Peter Capaldi (*In the Loop*)

**Best Supporting Actress**

• Mo’Nique (*Precious*)

• Vera Farmiga (*Up in the Air*)

• Anna Kendrick (*Up in the Air*)

• Samantha Morton (*The Messenger*)

• Maggie Gyllenhaal (*Crazy Heart*)

**Maybes**: Julianne Moore (*A Single Man*), Melanie Laurent (*Inglourious Basterds*), Diane Krueger (*Inglourious Basterds*), Patricia Clarkson (*Whatever Works*), Mariah Carey (*Precious*), Penélope Cruz (*Nine*), Judi Dench (*Nine*), Sigourney Weaver (*Avatar*)

**Most Deserving But She Won’t Get In**: Marion Cotillard (*Public Enemies*)

**Best Director**

• Kathryn Bigelow (*The Hurt Locker*)

• James Cameron (*Avatar*)

• Jason Reitman (*Up in the Air*)

• Quentin Tarantino (*Inglourious Basterds*)

• Lee Daniels (*Precious*)

**Maybes**: Oren Moverman (*The Messenger*), Lone Scherfig (*An Education*), Neil Blomkamp (*District 9*), Joel & Ethan Coe (*A Serious Man*), Pete Docter & Bob Peterson (*Up*), Michael Haneke (*White Ribbon*), Clint Eastwood (*Invictus*), Tom Ford (*A Single Man*), J.J. Abrams (*Star Trek*), Jane Campion (*Bright Star*)

**Most Deserving But It Won’t Get In**: Spike Jonze (*Where the Wild Things Are*)

**Best Original Screenplay**

• Mark Boal (*The Hurt Locker*)

• Quentin Tarantino (*Inglourious Basterds*)

• Joel & Ethan Coen (*A Serious Man*)

• Peter Doctor & Bob Peterson (*Up*)

• Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber (*(500) Days of Summer*)

**Maybes**: James Cameron (*Avatar*), Robert D. Siegel (*Big Fan*), Jane Campion (*Bright Star*), Jon Lucas & Scott Moore (*The Hangover*)

**Most Deserving But They Won’t Get In**: Oren Moverman & Alessandro Camon (*The Messenger*)

**Best Adapted Screenplay**

• Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (*Up in the Air*)

• Nick Hornby (*An Education*)

• Geoffrey Fletcher (*Precious*)

• Neil Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell (*District 9*)

• Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach (*Fantastic Mr. Fox*)

**Maybes**: Nora Ephron (*Julie & Julia*), Scott Cooper (*Crazy Heart*), Joe Penhall (*The Road*), Anthony Peckham (*Invictus*), Scott Z. Burns (*The Informant*), Jane Campion (*Bright Star*), Tom Ford (*A Single Man*), Alex Kurtzman, Roberto Orci (*Star Trek*)

**Most Deserving But They Won’t Get In**: Spike Jonze & Dave Eggers (*Where the Wild Things Are*)

**Best Cinematography**

• Mauro Flore (*Avatar*)

• Barry Ackroyd (*The Hurt Locker*)

• Robert Richardson (*Inglourious Basterds*)

• Dione Beebe (*Nine*)

• Christian Berger (*The White Ribbon*)

**Maybes**: Roger Deakins (*A Serious Man*), Bruno Delbonnel (*Harry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince*), Andrew Lesnie (*The Lovely Bones*), Dante Spinotti (*Public Enemies*), Andrew Dunn (*Precious*), Lance Acord (*Where the Wild Things Are*), Javier Aguirresarobe (*The Road*)

**Most Deserving But He Won’t Get In**: Mihai Malaimare Jr. (*Tetro*)

**Best Editing**

• John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin (*Avatar*)

• Chris Innis & Bob Murawski (*The Hurt Locker*)

• Maryann Brandon & Mary Jo Markey (*Star Trek*)

• Dana E. Glauberman (*Up in the Air*)

• Julian Clarke (*District 9*)

**Maybes**: Joe Klotz (*Precious*), Roderick Jaynes (*A Serious Man*), Alan Edward Bell (*(500) Days of Summer*), Debra Neil-Fisher (*The Hangover*), Richard Marks (*Julie & Julia*), Joe Hutshing & David Moritz (*It’s Complicated*), Andrew Weisblum (*Fantastic Mr. Fox*), Kevin Nolting (*Up*), Claire Simpson & Wyatt Smith (*Nine*), James Herbert (*Sherlock Holmes*)

**Most Deserving But She Won’t Get In**: Sally Menke (*Inglourious Basterds*)

**Best Documentary**

• *The Cove*

• *Food Inc.*

• *Every Little Step*

• *The Beaches of Agnes*

• *Garbage Dreams*

**Maybes**: *Mugabe and the White

Facing Ali, Living in Emergency: Stories of Doctors Without Borders, The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Sergio,
Soundtrack for a Revolution, Which Way Home, Burma VJ, Under Our Skin, Valentino The Last Emperor*

**Most Deserving But They Won’t Get In** (because they’re not on the Academy short list): *Tyson, Capitalism: A Love Story, This Is It, It Might Get Loud, Anvil: The Story of Anvil


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