Modern Family (ABC)
Parks and Recreation (NBC)
Silicon Valley (HBO)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
WILL WIN: Though Transparent earned the headlines and swept the Golden Globes, perpetual favorite Modern Family has fended off forward-thinking streaming-only competition before — Orange may have been the new black, but it wasn't the new Emmy winner for Best Comedy. (Now it's in the Drama category, just to show how cockamamie these things can get.) The show also seems likely to withstand any sentimental votes for Parks & Rec's fond farewell, given that it did the same to 30 Rock a few years back. Picking Modern Family to pick up its sixth win may be the conservative choice, but in this category, conservatism is generally rewarded.
SHOULD WIN: Like Girls and Orange Is the New Black before it, Transparent expands the emotional and personal palette of the sitcom genre. If you see the Emmys as a signpost of what we find worth valuing in TV, rather than an argument that the winners are necessarily flawless, that's worth rewarding.
ROBBED: The big bong theory of Abbi Jacobson and Ilana Glazer's Broad City deserved a shot, but the comedy brutality of Lisa Kudrow and Michael Patrick King's The Comeback and Andy Daly and Jeffrey Blitz's Review should have earned either of those superior series a win.