Getting Out of Iraq

Those who favor a quick exit point out that withdrawing will actually go a long way toward satisfying the demands of the warring factions in Iraq. The Sunni population that provided the base of Saddam's support -- including the current leaders of the Iraqi resistance -- would be more likely to participate in the political process if the United States pulls out, providing a counterbalance to the theocratic and paramilitary Shiite parties who currently control Iraq's fledgling government. That, in turn, would reduce Iran's influence in Baghdad, where the Iranian-backed Badr Corps is keeping the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in power. And once the U.S. occupation ends, most analysts believe, the ability of Al Qaeda to attract recruits will largely evaporate, since it is the anger over the presence of American troops in Iraq that provides Al Qaeda with its best sales pitch.

To those who argue that Iraq would be plunged into deeper chaos and even full-scale civil war if the U.S. leaves, Brzezinski says that the Shiites, who control Iraq's southern region, and the Kurds, who govern the mountainous north, would be able to defend themselves without U.S. troops. "They would not necessarily be taken over by this Al Qaeda threat that the president so much pumps up," he says. In fact, the main force of the Iraqi resistance fighting the United States is drawn not from Al Qaeda but from the former Iraqi army and Republican Guard, which dissolved after the war. Many insurgents are also what Iraq experts call POIs, or "pissed-off Iraqis" -- mostly Sunni Arabs who hate the idea that Iraq is occupied by U.S. troops.

What would an Iraq exit strategy look like? To facilitate the process, the United States could halt offensive operations in Iraq, return its forces to defensible positions outside the combat zones and make it clear that it has no long-term desire to stay in Iraq. Based on extensive discussions with U.S. diplomats, military and intelligence officials and foreign-policy experts, getting out of Iraq would involve three distinct steps:

Set a Date. Even some of those who favor a quick exit from Iraq argue that announcing a timetable would give the insurgents an advantage, enabling them to lie low until the United States leaves. In fact, the reverse could be true: Setting a precise date might force squabbling Iraqi factions to settle their differences rather than to rely on U.S. troops to solve their disputes. "For better or worse, the United States has to step back and let Iraqis do it themselves," argues Wayne White, who served as a senior intelligence official on Iraq until last spring.

As the situation in Iraq worsens, the idea of establishing a timetable is gaining favor in Washington. Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat from Wisconsin, says it is time for "a proposed target date to have the troops come home." In the House, a bipartisan resolution with more than sixty co-sponsors asks the president to initiate a withdrawal "as soon as possible, but not later than October 1st, 2006."