Ten Who Must Go

Democrats in Congress are poised to oust a handful of GOP hard-liners who once seemed invulnerable. A guide to the worst congressmen up for re-election - and why their seats are suddenly up for grabs

TIM DICKINSON

Posted Oct 30, 2008 3:30 AM

A Republican Bloodbath?
Political analyst Stu Rothenberg — who predicted the Democratic takeover of the Senate in 2006 — calls the '08 congressional race

Are we going to see a repeat of 2006 in November?
It's very, very rare that you have two elections in a row where one party gets spanked. When you have the kind of big shift we had in 2006, it normally relieves the pressure — voters deliver change, then things return to a more neutral political environment. But the last election didn't produce a return to normalcy.

Why not?
Voters still hold Republicans responsible for the nation's problems — and it looks like they're going to deliver part two of the same message they delivered last time. We don't know the magnitude of the message yet, but this looks like another terrific election for Democrats.

How big will they win?
They could pick up five to eight seats in the Senate — and it might go higher. And in the House, we're talking 15 to 25 seats.

Could they win 31 seats again, like they did in 2006?
Right now I can't rule it out.

Is there a historical precedent for this kind of wave carrying over for two election cycles?
Gains of 20 or more seats in two consecutive years? You have to go back to 1952, when the Republicans picked up 22 seats only two years after gaining 28 seats. But that was more understandable, because in 1948 the GOP got slaughtered during Truman's re-election — they lost 75 seats. That was a two-step correction.

When was the last time we saw consecutive gains that weren't part of a correction?
The Depression. Republicans lost 49 seats in 1930 and 101 seats in 1932. It was a consecutive bloodbath that remade the American political landscape. Just as 1932 was a continuation of 1930, 2008 is a continuation of 2006. We're seeing the Republicans taking the one-two punch again.

Keep reading for Tim Dickinson's guide to the worst congressmen up for re-election

Rep. Tom Feeney
(R) Florida

Under investigation for ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. As state House speaker, drew his own district's boundaries to create safe Republican seat. Democrats outspending GOP nearly 3 to 1 on ads.

Rep. Don Young
(R) Alaska

Pork king who backed "Bridge to Nowhere." Subject of four federal corruption investigations. Has held seat since 1973 but survived primary by only 304 votes. Challenger Ethan Berkowitz leads in the polls.

Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart
(R) Florida

Nephew of Castro's first wife; called for assassination of Fidel, naval blockade of Cuba. Challenger Raul Martinez — also Cuban exile — riding surge of 12,000 new Democratic voters, decline of 1,100 Republicans.

Rep. Chris Shays
(R) Connecticut

Stalwart supporter of Iraq War; blamed Abu Ghraib on "National Guard unit run amok." Last GOP House member from New England. Democrats targeting district, which voted heavily for Gore and Kerry.

Rep. Michele Bachmann
(R) Minnesota

Sought pardon for convicted money launderer. Calls global warming "voodoo," says world already saved — by Jesus. Bought $1.3 million "dream home," then blamed poor minorities for Wall Street meltdown.

Sen. Norm Coleman
(R) Minnesota

Accepted $2 million in contributions from Wall Street — most of any Senate candidate. Still backs privatizing Social Security, even after $2 trillion of stock losses in retirement funds. Why he may lose: Sen. Al Franken.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole
(R) North Carolina

Introduced legislation this year to reduce regulatory oversight on financial institutions. State in worst recession since 1981. New-voter registration among Democrats outpacing Republicans by 190,000.

Sen. Saxby Chambliss
(R) Georgia

Swift-boated triple-amputee Vietnam vet Max Cleland in 2002, linking him to Osama bin Laden. Challenger Jim Martin benefiting from Obama registration drive, which has added 120,000 black voters to the rolls.

Sen. Mitch McConnell
(R) Kentucky

Senate minority leader voted with Bush 93 percent of time; sponsored bill to expand domestic spying. Served 24 years, but approval rating at only 44 percent. State jobless rate just hit 16-year high.

Sen. Ted Stevens
(R) Alaska

Eighty-four-year-old found guilty of accepting $250,000 in gifts from oil-services firm. In audio played in court, tells donor, "We might have to serve a little time in jail." Unable to take lead in polls despite "Palin effect."

[From Issue 1064 — October 30, 2008]

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