Ten Who Must Go

A Republican Bloodbath?
Political analyst Stu Rothenberg — who predicted the Democratic takeover of the Senate in 2006 — calls the '08 congressional race

Are we going to see a repeat of 2006 in November?
It's very, very rare that you have two elections in a row where one party gets spanked. When you have the kind of big shift we had in 2006, it normally relieves the pressure — voters deliver change, then things return to a more neutral political environment. But the last election didn't produce a return to normalcy.

Why not?
Voters still hold Republicans responsible for the nation's problems — and it looks like they're going to deliver part two of the same message they delivered last time. We don't know the magnitude of the message yet, but this looks like another terrific election for Democrats.

How big will they win?
They could pick up five to eight seats in the Senate — and it might go higher. And in the House, we're talking 15 to 25 seats.

Could they win 31 seats again, like they did in 2006?
Right now I can't rule it out.

Is there a historical precedent for this kind of wave carrying over for two election cycles?
Gains of 20 or more seats in two consecutive years? You have to go back to 1952, when the Republicans picked up 22 seats only two years after gaining 28 seats. But that was more understandable, because in 1948 the GOP got slaughtered during Truman's re-election — they lost 75 seats. That was a two-step correction.

When was the last time we saw consecutive gains that weren't part of a correction?
The Depression. Republicans lost 49 seats in 1930 and 101 seats in 1932. It was a consecutive bloodbath that remade the American political landscape. Just as 1932 was a continuation of 1930, 2008 is a continuation of 2006. We're seeing the Republicans taking the one-two punch again.

Keep reading for Tim Dickinson's guide to the worst congressmen up for re-election