The Real Liberal: John Edwards is Third in the Polls, But Don't Count Him Out

Indeed, no Democrat has made a stronger play for union backing than -- Edwards: Since 2004, he has participated in more than 180 labor events -- including a hunger strike for immigrant janitors in Miami -- for twenty different unions. In 2006, while Clinton was burning through $30 million on her shoo-in re-election campaign in New York, Edwards was campaigning for initiatives to increase the minimum wage in six key states. While other candidates have little time for labor-hall rallies -- the PR firm of Clinton's chief strategist, Mark Penn, has actually engaged in union busting -- Edwards has made labor a central element of his anti-poverty campaign. On the stump, he calls collective bargaining the key to "making work pay" and lifting low-wage Americans out of poverty.

"This is a true commitment on his part," says Anna Burger, chair of the labor federation Change to Win. "He was doing this when there were no cameras watching him. We needed a spotlight on workers, and anything he could do to raise their profile, he was willing to do that. His special relationship with labor is forcing the other candidates to play catch-up."

Union support could pay off big in Nevada, where the hotel and service workers in the casinos of Las Vegas and Reno offer Edwards the kind of organizational muscle money can't buy. "The unions are going to own the Nevada caucus," predicts Moulitsas. "It's all about organization. So there's a very strong possibility Edwards will take Iowa and then Nevada. That would give him real momentum going into New Hampshire."

Veteran strategists agree that Edwards will need every bit of it. "As good as his operation is in Iowa, Hillary is as good if not better in New Hampshire," says Lehane. But unlike 2004, when Edwards had only seven organizers on the ground in New Hampshire, he is now deploying forty. Nor is the Granite State a lock for anyone: The candidate who led one recent poll here isn't even a candidate -- it's Al Gore. It requires no great leap to imagine that many would-be Gore supporters will ultimately gravitate to the other white male Southerner with a serious plan for global warming.

Such considerations of race and gender can't be overlooked, says Leyden of the New Politics Institute. "Obama and Clinton are terrific candidates," he says, "but they each represent an untested threshold in American politics. You have to entertain the idea that when Democrats really think about who is going to ensure that the party wins in 2008, a lot of people might get nervous and say, 'Damn it, we need a good-looking, charismatic white guy.' I hate to be crass. But that's baldfaced politics."

Edwards himself takes pain not to play the race or gender cards directly, saying only that "we must nominate a candidate who will win the general election." The unstated implication is that, while racism and sexism would hurt Obama and Clinton in November 2008, Edwards could run strong in the South -- particularly against Northerners like Romney or Giuliani. "You get a Southerner against a former Massachusetts governor or former New York City mayor, and you've really got a cultural dichotomy that is tough on the GOP," says Carrick. "It's enough to make a Republican strategist suicidal." Edwards is also careful to temper his progressivism with more centrist positions. Speaking to Rolling Stone, Edwards refused to rule out recommitting U.S. forces to Iraq to halt a genocide, and he even demonized single-payer health care: "Do you think the American people want the same people who responded to Hurricane Katrina to run their health-care system?" On The Tonight Show, Edwards also played it down the center, soft-pedaling global warming and trumpeting his anti-poverty credentials.

The appearance didn't move the needle on his poll numbers, but it may have helped him turn the page on that disastrous haircut. Two weeks after the show aired, Edwards was still featured in Leno's monologue -- but now another politician was on the business end of the punch line. "Senator John Edwards began what he's calling his poverty tour today," Leno announced. "He's visiting people who have no money and no hope. His first stop: John McCain's campaign headquarters."