Al Gore's Fight Against The Climate Crisis

I spent most of a day at the Scripps Institute last week reviewing the evidence with a large group of scientists. The IPCC will typically have projections for three scenarios: low, moderate and severe. Almost all of the new results that are cascading in are hugging the top, severe scenario. Any rational person who immerses himself or herself in this evidence would say, "Oh, my God, we've got to act immediately and drastically. We have a planetary emergency."

Many climate scientists say, off the record, that they have grave doubts that we'll be able to slow global warming in time to stave off a planetwide catastrophe. James Lovelock, one of the world's most esteemed scientists, told us recently that he believes it is already too late to save ourselves by buying Priuses and changing light bulbs - that we need to begin preparing for life on a different planet. Do you agree with that?
I agree that we're not going to solve this problem by buying Priuses and changing our light bulbs. But driving hybrids and choosing better technology is still important in two respects. First, it makes a small contribution to reducing CO2. And second, when people make changes in their own lives, they are much more likely to become part of a critical mass of public opinion and to support the bigger policy changes that are going to be needed to really solve the problem.

Another part of Lovelock's analysis I agree with is that some degree of change in the planet's climate is now clearly unavoidable. Some is already beginning to take place, and a good deal more is programmed into the climate system because of the extra heat stored up in the oceans. That will play out in our lifetimes and beyond. So some degree of adaptation is sensible and necessary. But it's crucial that we not fool ourselves into thinking that we can adapt to this climate crisis. If we don't begin to sharply reduce CO2 emissions, then there would be no adaptation to the constant reshuffling of the climate deck - rainfall and storms and sea level and soil moisture and diseases and ice melting and all the rest. It would be a different planet from the one on which human beings evolved.

So does that mean we need to start figuring out how to terraform Mars?
No. It's impertinent for me to disagree with such a distinguished scientist about anything in the scientific realm - James Lovelock has forgotten more than I will ever learn. But I think I may know one thing about politics that he doesn't know. And that is that the political system shares one thing in common with the climate system: They're both nonlinear. For those who look at the frustratingly slow pace of change that has characterized the last few decades on this issue, it is tempting to simply extrapolate that pace of change and conclude that we're not going to get there. But I think that we are closer than ever before to a genuine political tipping point beyond which the pace of change is going to accelerate very dramatically.