Run, Al, Run

Waiting makes sense, given the current political landscape. "Jumping in too early is a huge mistake for him," says Tony Coelho, who chaired Gore's 2000 campaign. "If the party wants to have Hillary, there's nothing Gore can do or say to stop it. But Barack Obama could be a godsend for Gore. Obama makes Hillary look like just another politician, as opposed to a fresh woman's face. He could slow her up, and John Edwards can create further doubts."

According to David Gergen, who has served in the Nixon, Reagan and Clinton administrations, that scenario could create an opening for Gore. "If the three of them fight each other to a bloody draw, nobody emerges as the cherished front-runner," he says. "Then you to turn to Al Gore as someone who is not scarred up by the battle. He would look very formidable."

Letting others battle-test Hillary's viability as a front-runner has an added benefit for Gore: It allows him to put off a bruising political confrontation with Bill Clinton. Some insiders suggest that a reticence to take on his generation's most brilliant political mind -- and someone renowned as a take-no-prisoners campaigner -- is the primary factor keeping Gore off the roster. "It's one thing to distance yourself from Bill Clinton, as Gore did in 2000," says a Democratic strategist who has advised both men. "It's another to run against Bill Clinton when the former first lady is heading the field."

If Gore does decide to run, there is no question that his entry into the race would instantly reshuffle the deck. "He would dislodge a whole lot of Hillary support," says Luntz, "opening up this race so that anyone would have a shot." He would also have history on his side: Andrew Jackson and Grover Cleveland, both of whom won the popular vote but lost the presidency, reached the White House on their next tries.

But even those who have worked most closely with Gore agree that his candidacy would face some significant hurdles. "You got a lot of people pretty skeptical," says Carville. "There's labor. The African-American community is not particularly close to Gore. The trial lawyers are certainly going to favor Edwards." Even Gore's prescience on the war may not be the towering advantage that many are predicting. "One is always penalized for being right about too many things," Carville says. "Prophets are shot in this town."

Further complicating the picture is the new, accelerated primary calendar, which adds South Carolina and Nevada to the traditional races in Iowa and New Hampshire, forcing Democrats to face four contests in the first fifteen days. A late start could make it tough for Gore to win Iowa, where Edwards has established an early lead and former governor Tom Vilsack looms as a hometown hero. But he would stand a good chance of beating Hillary in New Hampshire, where a battle between John McCain and Rudy Giuliani on the GOP side of that state's open primary is likely to siphon off large numbers of independent voters -- leaving anti-war Gore supporters to dominate the Democratic vote. Unlike Clinton and Obama, Gore could also sweep the South, knocking native son John Edwards out of the race.

Should he win the nomination, Gore would stack up well against the likely Republican contenders. In the earliest head-to-head polls, he performs as well as Hillary and better than any other Democrat in the field, edging McCain by one percent and running even against Giuliani. "If Gore secures the nomination," says Gergen, "his chances of victory would be strong."

Gore's biggest challenge, however, may come from within. "He's kind of a klutzy politician," says Elaine Kamarck, a Gore confidante. If he has any hope of being president, Gore has to find a way to stay in touch with the looser, more confident side of himself that has emerged in recent years.

"Al Gore is so appealing now because he's free," says Trippi. "The real question is, will he be able to maintain that freedom as a candidate? Or as soon as he has something to lose, does he revert back to that cautious, overly consulted guy we saw in 2000?"

As the campaign heats up over the next six months, Gore will remain very much in the public eye. In February, he'll be up for an Oscar for An Inconvenient Truth May, he will publish a new book, The Assault on Reason, and in July he is planning a series of concerts to raise awareness about global warming.

But Gore's greatest appeal may come, ultimately, from what he represents to voters fed up with two terms of the Bush administration. "He'll be able to make the case that he should have been president already," says Carrick. "And that had he been president, things would have been a lot different, with the Iraq war being Exhibit A."

This, agrees Luntz, is Gore's greatest draw. "Democratic voters in 2008 are not only looking to turn back the last eight years, but to erase the last eight years," he says. "If I were working for Gore, I'd message around a single word: Imagine. 'Imagine if I'd been president instead of George W. Bush. Imagine where we'd be today.' "

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