The Fear Factor

Fence Off Mexico!
PAT BUCHANAN, conservative pundit and former presidential candidate
If I were recommending an October Surprise, I would tell Karl Rove to have the president ask for $5 billion to build a fence along the Mexican border. It would rally the Reagan Democrats to Bush and put the Democrats in a real bind with their Hispanic base.

Bin Laden Seized!
DONNA BRAZILE, former campaign manager for Al Gore
They'll raise the terror-alert levels. The FBI will come out and announce that some domestic plot has been uncovered. Or someone big will be captured in Pakistan, someone on our most-wanted list, a senior operative in Al Qaeda. And then there's always the big one -- bin Laden captured or killed.

George Clooney Arrested!
ELI PARISER, executive director of MoveOn.org
Looking at the news this fall, I have to imagine the Republicans are hoping for some little girl to go missing. Because the JonBen?t Ramsey coverage has been remarkably effective at drowning out the reality of people coming home in body bags from Iraq every day. If I were Karl Rove, I would assign the Department of Justice and the FBI to drum up more celebrity show trials. That's really their best hope: another Michael Jackson scandal.

Terrorist Bomb Plot Foiled!
CLARK KENT ERVIN, former inspector general for homeland security under Bush
The most dramatic October Surprise, obviously, would be to catch bin Laden. That would be huge. But there's no reason to believe it will happen anywhere in the near future. My sense is that they are less concerned these days with catching bin Laden: The unit dedicated to hunting him has been closed. And the raising of terrorist-threat levels won't work like it did in 2004, when they seemed to be timed with major events in the election cycle. More likely, the president will continue to do what he's done -- that is, to make the case that the recent foiled plots in London and Miami and Atlanta suggest that he must be doing something right, because there hasn't been a terror attack since 9/11.

President Bush Assassinated!
LARRY BEINHART, author of "American Hero," the basis of the film "Wag the Dog"
Here's what Rove is going to do: He's going to have Bush assassinated. They blow up Air Force One. Maybe shoot it down with a missile that will turn out to have been stolen from a U.S. Air Force base. They'll track it back to Afghanistan, say it got into Al Qaeda's hands that way. It solves everything. It rallies Americans around this terrorist assassination and gets rid of this loser who's embarrassing them. Dick Cheney steps grimly to the helm, declares martial law and becomes President for Life.