The Fear Factor

Indeed, the latest survey by pollster Peter Hart confirms that such scare tactics are losing their effectiveness. "The recent stress on national security has helped the Republicans, but it's been a marginal effect," Hart says. "I don't think that issue cuts the same way anymore." Indeed, recent polls contain some daunting numbers for Republicans hoping to reach into their old bag of tricks: Seventy-three percent of Americans believe the country is unprepared for a biological or chemical attack, and sixty-one percent consider Bush's comparison of Islamic terrorists and the Nazis to be both inappropriate and self-serving.

"We know the Republicans will come up with something," says House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. "In October, unencumbered by money, fact or decency, they will pull anything to win. They think they can undermine us on national security. What's sad about what John Boehner said about Democrats being 'more interested in protecting the terrorists than protecting the American people' was not only that it was over-the-top, but that he didn't even think it was. You should know when you're lobbing a hand grenade and not just passing a bonbon. But this is the nature of the comments you will see. We're dealing with desperate people, so they have to revert as usual to their politics of fear. It should come as no surprise to anyone. I just hope the American people don't fall for their gimmick."

With the political reality so clearly running against Bush, pundits wonder: How will the Democrats manage to lose this time? The party's own incompetence is generally guarantor enough, but Karl Rove and Co. surely have something special in the works, a political bombshell designed to change the momentum of the midterm elections. We surveyed a broad range of political thinkers and asked for predictions, both serious and fanciful, of possible October Surprises by the GOP. Here are the results.