UPDATE: Top 10 House Races


For the October 19th Rolling Stone, I put together a list of "10 Key Races" for taking back the House.

These races are "key" not in the sense that they're essential for Democrats to squeak into power.

No, these are the races with the potential for turning this election into what strategist Charlie Cook described as "a big goddamn wave," one that washes out the Republican Revolution and creates a durable Democratic majority.

These are races that in any other year should be safe GOP seats. But looking at the lastest poll numbers, they all look ripe for the Democratic picking. In 8 of these key races, polls show the Democratic challengers in the lead. And the other two remain in clear striking distance.

When I began working on this list in September it seemed impossible that Democrats could do better than 7/10. Now a clean sweep can't be ruled out.

Without further ado, the list:

  1. New Mexico's 1st; May the Best Woman Win: Heather Wilson* v. Patricia Madrid (45%/49%)
  2. Connecticut's 5th; Age and Treachery v. Youth and Skill: Nancy Johnson* v. Chris Murphy (42%/46%)
  3. Pennsylvania's 7th; Stick a Fork in Him, He's Weldon: Curt Weldon* v. Joe Sestak (43%/50%)
  4. Ohio's 15th; The Pryce of Loyalty: Deborah Pryce* v. Mary Jo Kilroy (41%/53%)
  5. California's 4th; It's the Great Corruption, Charlie Brown: John Doolittle* v. Charlie Brown (50%/43%)
  6. Arizona's 5th; Just Wild About Harry?: J.D. Hayworth* v. Harry Mitchell (46%/48%)
  7. North Carolina's 11th; The Democrats' Jack Kemp: Charles Taylor* v. Heath Shuler (43%/48%)
  8. Indiana's 8th; The Passion of the Kook: John Hostettler* v. Brad Ellsworth (43%/53%)
  9. New York's 24th; Wagering on Wages: [Open Seat] Ray Meier (R) v. Mike Arcuri (D) (43%/52%)
  10. Minnesota's 6th; Wetterling Dreams: [Open Seat] Michele Bachmann (R) v. Patty Wetterling (D) (49%/42%)

*=Republican incumbent

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