Rock Albums Lead Fall Season, But Record Biz Still Struggles

With Guns N' Roses and AC/DC releasing new discs, and potential blockbusters from Nickelback, the Killers and Fall Out Boy on the way, retailers say rock albums will lead the holiday music-shopping season. But none of the retailers Rolling Stone spoke to expected the superstar-packed slate to substantially improve the fortunes of the reeling record business, which has seen sales fall 36 percent from 2000 to 2007, according to Nielsen SoundScan. "We're going to have a solid release schedule," says Ed Hogan, director of music for Best Buy, which is putting out G n' R's long-awaited Chinese Democracy. "I doubt whether it can turn around the overall industry decline and help make up for the fact that the economic time is difficult."

Expected hits by U2, Dr. Dre and Jay-Z have been bumped to next year. But among the confirmed superstar records due are Kanye West's 808s & Heartbreak, on November 25th; 50 Cent's Before I Self Destruct, in mid-December; Britney Spears' Circus, December 2nd; Beyoncé's I Am . . . Sasha Fierce, later this month; and new albums by Akon, American Idol winner David Cook and possibly, by year's end, Eminem.

After 14 years of delays, Chinese Democracy is finally coming out on November 23rd. But with Axl Rose unlikely to do many promotional appearances, the album will have to rely on radio play and Best Buy's marketing machine, which ran a clever ad during Saturday Night Live. The first single, "Chinese Democracy," hit Number Nine on hard-rock radio in its first two weeks. "I really think [fans] are going to go out and buy this thing the minute it hits," says Doug Podell, program director for Detroit rock station WRIF. "I sense it's pent-up. The timing is really right." Beyond G n' R, Best Buy's Hogan has high expectations for Beyoncé's two-disc set and Nickelback's Dark Horse, due November 18th. "Those aren't necessarily a one-week thing," he says, noting that both artists' previous albums simmered to multiplatinum sales. "They'll sell for a long period of time."

But on the retail front, things continue to look bleak. Walmart is reportedly continuing to cut its shelf space for music to make room for Blu-ray discs and other products. And Circuit City, a major music outlet, recently said it would close 155 stores. But the rock records already released this fall provide a rare bit of good news: AC/DC's Black Ice has sold more than 1 million copies in two weeks, and Metallica's Death Magnetic has moved more than 1.25 million copies since it came out on September 12th. "Seeing how AC/DC and some other groups of that ilk have done makes me a little more positive," says Ron Burman, senior vice president of A&R for Nickelback's label, Roadrunner. "I would like to think rock isn't necessarily affected by the economy. People want to rock."

[From Issue 1066 — November 27, 2008]