Early Oscar Handicapping : Rolling Stone

Best Picture: Right now I'd have to put The Curious Case of Benjamin Button on top, followed by Milk, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road, The Soloist, Doubt, The Road and Clint Eastwood's Changeling, which raises a caveat. Eastwood also directed Gran Torino, starring himself, and the film may sneak out in December and surprise everyone. Clint likes doing that — remember Million Dollar Baby? Also, I'm expecting Steven Soderbergh's Che, a two-part, 268-minute Spanish-language epic about Che Guevara (Benicio del Toro), to find a fall berth after its debut at the New York Film Festival. Hollywood is still shuffling the cards in its deck, and with only The Dark Knight and The Visitor as pre-fall contenders, the next months will be loaded with drama.

Best Actress: Meryl Streep has the role to beat in Doubt, but Angelina Jolie (Changeling) is right on her tail. And don't forget Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Keira Knightley (The Duchess), Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road) and Kristin Scott Thomas (I've Loved You So Long), who is absolutely astounding. The film is in French, which didn't stop Marion Cotillard from nabbing Oscar for La Vie en Rose.

Best Actor: Sean Penn (Milk) and Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) are front-runners. Frank Langella hits a career peak in Frost/Nixon. Viggo Mortensen (The Road) is on a roll. Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road, Body of Lies) has two shots at bat. And don't discount Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino) and Benicio del Toro (Che) if their films get out of the gate.

Best Supporting Actress: Summer gave Pen&eacutelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona) a leg up. But props to Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married), Amy Adams and Viola Davis (Doubt), and Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button).

Best Supporting Actor: I could mention Robert Downey Jr. (The Soloist), Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon), James Franco (Pineapple Express) and John Malkovich (Burn After Reading). But the award belongs to Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight). End of discussion.

[From Issue 1060 — September 4, 2008]

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