The Politics of Fear

At first glance, it might appear that Bush's grandstanding on gay marriage has backfired. But the amendment was never designed to appeal to a majority of voters, or even to pass the Senate -- it was designed to revive Bush's evangelical base. ''People ask me, ?Isn't this a big defeat?' '' says John Green, a senior fellow at Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. ''If you look at it in policy terms, of course it is. But if you look at it in political terms, there's a big benefit to the Republicans.''

The hot-button issue could prove pivotal in several Senate races where GOP incumbents are struggling to hang on to their seats. In Ohio, where the ballot initiative against gay marriage is widely credited with boosting turnout for Bush in 2004, Sen. Mike DeWine has switched his position on the issue, signing on as a sponsor of the federal amendment. In Pennsylvania, Republicans hope gay marriage will give an edge to Sen. Rick Santorum, who is behind in the polls to Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr. And in Tennessee, where Sen. Bill Frist's impending retirement creates an open seat, the religious right has placed an initiative on the ballot to ban same-sex unions. In an off-year election, when both parties rely more heavily on their core voters, even a slight increase in turnout among Christian conservatives could help the Republicans.

''If you goose that turnout a little bit, it could be the difference between retaining control of the Senate or losing control of the Senate,'' says Green. ''We're talking about political calculations on the margins -- but calculations that might very well make a difference.''

The gay-marriage issue also plays well among seniors, whose turnout could be crucial in dozens of House races. ''Normally, you have fifteen competitive House races -- tops,'' says Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster. ''Now it could be as many as fifty. We're seeing competitive numbers in districts that haven't been competitive in a decade. The GOP has a sense of urgency about maintaining these seats -- and without the energy of the base, Rove can't hope to reproduce the amazing turnout of 2002 and 2004.''

If seniors turn out to oppose gay marriage, strategists say, it could tip House races to Republicans in central Pennsylvania, rural Ohio and Kentucky, and exurban districts in Indiana. ''The issue works well among voters from outside major metro areas,'' says Cook, the political analyst. ''It probably hurts the GOP in some Connecticut districts, but guys in Indiana like Reps. Chris Chocola and John Hostettler probably don't mind this a bit.''

Heading into the 2006 elections, however, the demonizing of gay marriage may be less of a surefire political winner. ''My sense was that issue was uniquely situated for 2004,'' Cook says. ''You had the court decision in Massachusetts legalizing gay marriage, then you had Mayor Newsom in San Francisco. One year earlier or one year later, it wouldn't have been as big an issue as it was right then.''

In the long run, most political observers agree, opposing gay marriage will ultimately prove as unsuccessful as the GOP's earlier efforts to outlaw interracial marriage. The same week that Bush demonized gays as a threat to the family, DC Comics introduced a new version of Batwoman -- as a spandex-clad lesbian. Ten years ago, a gay comic-book heroine would have sent shock waves across America. In 2006, it was met with a collective shrug.

''I think one of the reasons you're seeing so much sturm und drang from the conservatives is that they know that they're losing the debate,'' says Dan Savage, a national political columnist who chronicled his experience as a gay father in The Kid. ''The polls on gay people, gay marriage and gay adoption track more and more favorably with every passing year. Republicans want to lock in their bigotry now, while they have what they perceive to be a majority. But you can't have Rosie on The View and Elton John packing Mom and Pop in at Caesars Palace and gay people all over television, and then have these politicians run out there with a straight face and say that ?gay and lesbian relationships are a threat to the family.' We are winning in the culture -- which is why we'll ultimately win the political war.''