Crunching the Wisconsin turnout numbers against the exit poll, it seems again that Obama was the third highest recipient of Republican votes, claiming roughly 70,000.

That’s more than three times Ron Paul’s total, and nearly half of Huckabee’s tally.

Chew on this: McCain only beat him 3:1 among Republicans.

If anything like that holds up in the general, this will be a slaughter.

I’ve been crunching the numbers, and there are more than a few stunning results out of Virginia tonight:

• Obama received nearly 140,000 more votes than all of the Republicans combined.
• Obama finished third among Republicans. His 47,000 Republican votes are more than six times what Ron Paul received, and match one quarter of McCain’s haul.
• Independents flocked to Obama over McCain 145,000 to 38,000 — that’s closing in on 4:1.

The smart money — not to mention the latest polls — gives an edge to Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee in tonight’s Iowa caucuses.

But take a couple hundred thousand Midwesterners, pack them into gyms and libraries and town halls on a frigid Iowa night, add a heaping measure of peer pressure to the equation, and, well, anything can happen.

Here are five unlikely results you that shouldn’t be shocked to see when the final precinct tallies come in:

1) John Edwards Wins Going Away

No one in presidential campaign history has ever worked a state like John Edwards has worked Iowa. No one. But for a brief hiatus for the 2004 general election, Edwards has been campaigning there non-stop since early 2003. He’s answered more questions from more voters at more diners and summer cookouts — in every last corner of the state — than Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama combined. (more…)

I’ve been watching the Republican Univision debate broadcast from Miami — centro del universo anti-Castro — and he just went there:

We talked to Stalin, Kruschev, and Mao. We’ve talked to the whole world. Actually I believe we’re at a time where we ought to talk to Cuba, open travel with Cuba, trade with Cuba. We create the Castro’s and the [Hugo] Chavez’s of this world by interfering and creating chaos in their countries, and they respond by throwing out their leaders.*

Needless to say he was almost booed out of the building for this Bullworth moment.

The look on John McCain’s face during a cut-away — clenching his jaw to fight back the giggles — was absolutely priceless.

UPDATE: Here’s the clip…

—

*The quote’s not quite exact as I’m having to re-translate the voiceover translation that is drowning out the original English answers.

More anti-war insights from my interview with Ron Paul

In a recent debate, you blasted Mike Huckabee for supporting the war, saying we’re only staying in Iraq “to save face.” But wouldn’t leaving Iraq be a propaganda victory for bin Laden?

Everything is much worse if we stay. Right now they’re very content to bleed us in Iraq. Bleed us financially and by killing Americans. We lose lives, we spend money we don’t have, it furthers our financial crisis. The longer we’re there, the stronger Al Qaeda gets. Our being there is the greatest incentive ­conceivable to help Osama bin Laden. The evidence is very clear. There’s more Al Qaeda now than before. Which means we’re in greater danger of being hit by terrorists than before.

Besides, who are the people telling us there’ll be problems if we leave? The same ones who said it would be a ­cakewalk. What kind of credibility do they have?

My interview with Ron Paul from the current issue — in which he denounces the “warmongering” of “chicken hawks” like Cheney and Giuliani — is now online

What do you make of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and current U.S. posturing toward Iran?

He’s a loudmouth, and he hurts their cause. But we help his cause when we gang up against him. When we pass sanctions against him, the dissidents in Iran who would like to get rid of him rally around him for nationalistic reasons.

We get hysterical over a guy who doesn’t have a single weapon, and nobody’s proven that he’s ever violated the arms-nonproliferation treaty. Matter of fact, the International Atomic Energy Agency is going to have an agreement with him by the end of the year. That’s why you have all of this warmongering going on: It is to try to find an excuse to start bombing him before they prove that he doesn’t have a chance of having a weapon. That’s exactly what we did with Iraq. I’m scared to death they’re getting ready to do that with Iran.

The Bush administration says Iran is supporting the Iraqi insurgency. How much can we trust that assessment?

About as much as what we heard about Iraq before the war. What was true about that? Very, very little, if anything. They’re capable of telling us anything if they want to go to war. And that’s what they want.

read more here…

Answering Why Ron Paul? with bullet-point elegance is Dlynne:

I am voting for Ron Paul, and here are some of the following reasons:

1. Paul voted against the war in Iraq. I was not in favor of the war in Iraq because I never did understand its connection to 9/11.

2. Paul supported the action in Afghanistan, insofar as capturing Bin Laden and destroying the terrorist camps. I supported the Afghanistan action and the capture of Bin Laden. I NEVER supported the idea that we were going to “build” Afghinstan into our idea of what it should be. [N]Either did Paul.

3. Paul wants to cut out all foreign aid AND close down all foreign bases. He will give the billions in savings back to the citizens who are paying for all this stuff, including me.

4. Paul will secure our borders, which is the ONLY way to thwart future terrorist attacks in our country. I am in favor of secure borders, and do not think that soldiers — stationed in Iraq — can protect our soil or citizens against the threat here at home.

5. He will cut out all unnecessary and redundant (need I say Homeland Security?) federal agencies.

6. He voted against the Patriot Act. I think he was the only Congressional member who actually read it. I am not in favor of the Patriot Act, and I am tired of my government trying to turn me into a wimp. I am not afraid, and see no reason to give up my rights as a U.S. citizen in order to feel secure. Surely, we are all made of stronger stuff than that.

By the way, I am pro-choice. But no candidate is going to meet my criteria 100%. Paul is willing to let states decide their own take on abortion, and I can live with that.

Ron Paul supporters have savaged me as a “disservice to this country” a “biased,” “completely ignorant” “propaganda agent” “media moron” “douche” “Dick-in-son” “dork” guilty of “spin and pure disrespect.”

But there are no hard feelings here. In fact, here’s an olive branch.

Or at least a soap box:

Come one, come all. Preach the virtues of Ron Paul.