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Last Call for VP Predictions

8/19/08, 1:43 pm EST

Everybody’s favorite summer parlor game is coming swiftly to a close.

If I had to bet today, I’d say it’s Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius.

The logic goes like this: The VP pick is almost never the name on everybody’s shortlist.

Where did Joe Lieberman and Dick Cheney come from? Left field.

And let’s not forget that Dick Gephardt episode (see above) from ‘04.

The strategerie of floating the three top names out there now is pretty clear. It gets some buzz going in the swingable states Virginia and Indiana where Kaine and Bayh fans start thinking: “Hey, if Obama is thinking about my guy, I should give him another look.”

Biden may be in it for real, but he’s got a lot of baggage and little electoral college clout. Also, Obama has repeatedly said he doesn’t need a foreign policy tutor as VP. Floating him for VP makes it clear to a certain educated class of independent voter that Obama values a smart, rational foreign policy. It also elevates Biden in the eyes of the pundit class allowing the campaign to use him as an effective attack dog going forward.

As to Sebelius. Obama really likes her. The record she’s racked up in Kansas — getting important work done across party lines — weaves into the Axelrod narrative that Obama wants to project perfectly. To say nothing of underscoring the middle-American aspects of Obama’s “mother from Kansas father from Kenya” bio.

Sure, she’s soft spoken, doesn’t have a lick of foreign policy cred, is a woman who is not Hillary, blah blah blah blah blah, which is precisely why the chattering classes would go to town dissecting and puzzling over and praising the pick. America gets to know the many things there are to like about her, and McCain’s trouble with women voters gets turned up to eleven.

Anyhow, that’s my reading of the tea leaves.

What’s your best guess?


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Comments

davidlee | 8/19/2008, 2:48 pm EST

You forget Biden’s achievements this year in a lackluster congress…

Nobody has gotten more created passed and done than Joe Biden…seriously.

Over foreign policy that is big when you are trying to get “change’ things passed.

davie... | 8/19/2008, 3:06 pm EST

my guess is that YOUR guess is wrong.

Mark | 8/19/2008, 3:15 pm EST

This is so on target. It’s about women not a woman.

roy jones | 8/19/2008, 3:34 pm EST

nahhhh he isnt bold enough hell make a safe pragmatic choice like tim kaine sebelius will be tooo dramatic

roy jones | 8/19/2008, 3:34 pm EST

nahhhh he isnt bold enough hell make a safe pragmatic choice like tim kaine sebelius will be tooo dramatic

Agreed, also... | 8/19/2008, 4:51 pm EST

You can usually get a feel for who the best fit for VP would be….not who checks off the “vp pre-quals.” ie, as you mentioned in the article……Did anyone really think Gephardt really “felt” like the likely choice…Certainly not, where as many would say Edwards did.

As I think about the gut feeling about the other three mentioned……
Kaine (not even close)….
Byah (perfect on paper, but again not much of a VP feel for having such a perfect resume)….
Biden (fairly good feel as I could sort of see him as a VP…..however, not as a President- which in the end will elimate him).

To me, Sebelius seems to have the right feel for the time, and I have said for over a year now, that She will be the first President, not Hillary.

On a side note, I fully think that John Edwards was going to be the VP as late as 1 month ago, until the 06 affair started coming closer to the surface. Where as I did not think he was perfect for ‘04 VP, I think he is/was for ‘08…He also perfectly fills in the missing appeal (to Ohio/ Penn/ etc) that Obama Lacks.

Even with the affair, I think Edwards is still the best choice…..Kennedy had great judgement in his public life despite personal short comings….examples could go on and on. And many may not agree, but I think it does say something that he told his wife two years ago, rather than waiting until he gets caught and is forced to. Also, Unlike others I do think on some level, 1 affair is different than a history of repeated cheating- which shows no remorse or self correction.

Mario Kart | 8/19/2008, 5:28 pm EST

I vote Ronald McDonald

he has soccer mom appeal

Delta Wild Man | 8/19/2008, 6:42 pm EST

Who cares what John Kerry wants,, If I were Obama, I’d listen to John Kerry and do the exact opposite of what he suggests..
I mean, with a Record like John Kerry, what more could you ask for??
A Red Hot Poker of the Whazoola??

Delta Wild Man | 8/19/2008, 6:44 pm EST

Change ” of the Whazoola ” to ” up the Whazoola “..
Forgive me

touched monkey | 8/19/2008, 11:46 pm EST

it’ll be either Gore or Kerry

touched monkey | 8/19/2008, 11:46 pm EST

it’ll be either Gore or Kerry

Anonymous | 8/20/2008, 12:20 am EST

Jed Clampett

Did you guys happen to catch POV on PBS tonight? It was a little story about how the military was able to take over the country through fear and terror and enslaven the population of Chile with help from the CIA.

If your ‘intelligence’ services can do that to a democratically elected government in another country, what makes you think they won’t do it to you? All it takes is enough money and to be the member of the right kabal, anything can be dissembled when the population has been conditioned to be gullible and react the desired way to a campaign of fear.

The 7-10 | 8/20/2008, 8:23 am EST

Obama will pick Biden
McCain will pick Pawlenty

BurnDaddy | 8/20/2008, 9:31 am EST

Obama – Jack Reed (Ex military, Catholic, experienced in foreign policy and defense as well as energy and housing. If not VP then SOD.

McCain – Tom Ridge (best fit for the NeoCon agenda, should McCain croak.)

jeffery mcnary | 8/20/2008, 11:29 am EST

i say warren beatty, again! as “buggsy” he gets things done. and his senate experience, “bullworth”, proves he’s got the touch with the people.

Cousin Dave | 8/20/2008, 2:56 pm EST

Okay here are my VP picks.

If Hillary comes out of Denver with the Democrat Party nomination: Ted Strickland.

Barak Obama: Dick Gephardt.

John McCain: John Kasich.

bored | 8/20/2008, 4:00 pm EST

obama – Sam Nunn
mccain — Mitt Romney

Dave (NYC) | 8/20/2008, 6:36 pm EST

Bloomberg.

Dave | 8/20/2008, 6:36 pm EST

What about Bloomberg.

Dave | 8/20/2008, 6:37 pm EST

What about Bloomberg?

Dave | 8/20/2008, 6:38 pm EST

Apparently, I’m very adamant.

NewportRacer | 8/20/2008, 7:07 pm EST

Obama needs someone with administrative experience, okay he needs someone with a TON of experience, but that is another issue.
Ed Rendall – Gov of PA swing state and key Hillary supporter
OR
Bill Richardson – Gov of NM, former Clinton Sec of Energy and UN Ambassador, foreign policy experience.

Martin | 8/20/2008, 9:05 pm EST

I agree with
Cousin Dave.
It is all about
Ohio,Ohio,Ohio.
McCain cannot win without Ohio.
John Kasich is the ticket for many
reasons.On the Democratic side,
Gephardt would be a great choice.

bfooo | 8/21/2008, 12:21 am EST

Ob – HRC
Mc – Ridge

V. Santollo | 8/21/2008, 4:43 pm EST

For the good of the country I hope it is General Wesley Clark.

PartyCrasher | 8/22/2008, 4:38 am EST

For the good of the country I hope it don`t matter who Obama picks for VP. Because I hope he doesn`t get anywhere near the White House.

But I say he picks Evan Bayh of Indiana. It`s safe and Obama don`t like taking risk.

cynthiaki | 8/22/2008, 1:44 pm EST

Rep. Chet Edwards of Texas…for so many reasons, I could see this happen.

Marklee | 8/24/2008, 9:31 pm EST

Wish you had been right about this. I agree with your reasoning about why Sebelius would have been a great choice. Very disappointed that Obama seemed to lose his vision and courage on this one. As far as the foreign policy experience issue, well, governors like Bill Clinton seemed to do fine. She is the commander in chief of the Kansas National Guard and has been actively involved in Iraq war issues, among other things. Governors have global experience of different order than Senators and she has been an amazing governor.

I’m one of those somewhat unhappy Hillary Clinton supporters, by the way. I was pretty disappointed that Sebelius didn’t endorse her but otherwise I think she’s remarkable.

Marklee | 8/24/2008, 9:31 pm EST

Wish you had been right about this. I agree with your reasoning about why Sebelius would have been a great choice. Very disappointed that Obama seemed to lose his vision and courage on this one. As far as the foreign policy experience issue, well, governors like Bill Clinton seemed to do fine. She is the commander in chief of the Kansas National Guard and has been actively involved in Iraq war issues, among other things. Governors have global experience of different order than Senators and she has been an amazing governor.

I’m one of those somewhat unhappy Hillary Clinton supporters, by the way. I was pretty disappointed that Sebelius didn’t endorse her but otherwise I think she’s remarkable.

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