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In Virginia, Obama Splits White, Latino Vote; Lures Independents, Republicans from McCain

2/12/08, 8:49 pm EST

This is a big win in a big state with big implications for a general election.

Obama beat Clinton 59/40 among Democrats.

But Independents and Republicans made up nearly 30 percent of the electorate in Virginia, and Obama took those voters by (roughly) 70/30.

By contrast, only 34 percent of (a much smaller pot) of Independents supported Senator McCain in the GOP race. Once I’ve got hard vote numbers I’ll try to quantify that more precisely, but here’s the point: In a head-to-head matchup, with Obama and McCain both on the ballot, vyying for independent support in an open primary, Obama kicked the Mac’s 70-year-old backside.

While that certainly puts some muscle into Obama’s electability cred, other numbers from tonight suggest he’s changed the status quo of this race against Clinton.

Obama took the Latino vote 55/45 over Clinton. (It’s a small, 5 percent sample, so throw in a large grain of salt, but that’s major movement.)

Among men and women, blacks and whites, the only Demographic that gave Clinton the edge were white women. But even there the margin was only 55/45.

The biggest surprise of the night, however, may be that Obama and Clinton split the Senior vote right down the middle: 50/50.


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Comments

McDon Dickson | 2/13/2008, 1:20 am EST

Congratulation to our new President and the only President that have everyone in mind

roy | 2/13/2008, 4:55 pm EST

the repubs and independants voted for obama, because why waste your vote on McCain? Everybody knows he’ll get the nomination. Those votes werent for Obama, they were against Clinton. And no, he doesnt have everyone in mind. He doesnt have the troops in mind. The troops want to stay in Iraq. They want to get the job done. How do I know? I am a U.S. Marine, and have pulled two years in Iraq, and I cant wait to go back. The democrats WILL NOT! crush the american spirit!

P.S. I think its cute when punks like you, try to talk like you know politics. Hahaha!

Anonymous | 2/13/2008, 7:11 pm EST

(Jed Clampett)

That’s rather funny, if they wanted McCain to win they should have voted for Clinton. Obama will movilize the democrats in droves and independents as well. There aren’t enough republicans or Dibold voting machines to make up those numbers.

Bumfuzzled | 2/13/2008, 7:36 pm EST

Can anyone tell that corporate America is likin’ Obama just fine? Please DON’T try to tell us that 30 million dollars in January came from “little people”…ROFLMAO.

If Republicans and Independents are for him, I’m against him.

Sheesh. People, THINK!

Bumfuzzled | 2/13/2008, 7:39 pm EST

Er… Roy….I don’t think the Diebold Denizens of Deception will have ANY interest in taking the votes AWAY from Obama. He’s the Democratic version of Dubya. “Change” my posterior dorsal.

I cannot believe Americans are so naive. God help us. Again.

Anonymous | 2/13/2008, 9:06 pm EST

(Jed Clampett)

Wow, looks like the Clinton’s have put money into getting some full time posters to denigrate Sen. Obama. They really are desperate now.
Obama like Bush? man what an unlikely comparison, just in listening to them speak you can tell the difference is totally 180 degrees out of phase.

Let’s compare then, Bush, grew up a pampered son of a political insider, into a family that made it’s wealth in the oil and defense industries. A culture of priviledge took him away from his duty in the texas National guard during a time of war to help a family friend run a campaign… one in which no one seems to remembers him participating. In college he is reportedly brought in to join the skulls and is definately known as the typical frat guy, considering his provenance, that doesn’t seem too farfetched. After bouts with alcoholism and alledged drug abuse he tries his hand at the oil business. By all accounts he failed at that as well until he met a misterious middle eastern man that rescued his company and miraculously put him in a position of power, enough to try for a run at the house of reps. Somehow he became part owner of the texas rangers, apparently the arab helped him with much cash and put him in contact with political insiders.
He then beat ann richards by playing the dirty politics game, unfortunately ann obliged with her ‘born with a silver foot in his mouth’ comment. He then became president in an election that was not merely disputed but by all accounts a travesty of democracy. Obviously he was groomed by forces outside his own volition to take the reigns of power and place the industries that made his family wealthy into an even larger boondogle with help of a VP with similar provenance.

Now Sen. Obama, a man of modest provenance, after applying himself academicaly and proving himself as a citizen activist he was accepted into Columbia U and later to Harvard Law school. By all accounts he’s aplied himself diligently trhoughout his life to helping others, perhaps a result of seeing that others live in abject poverty thanks to his 4 years living abroad. A stint in the illinoi senata has given him a knowledge of how to negotiate with opposing views and to create legislation. I imagine he learned how they put loopholes in the laws and how the players play the game as well, let’s hope he can parlay that into the opposite of Bushney.

a quick browse through opensecrets.org will show you where the candidates money comes from. Sen. Obama’s bulk of contributions come from donors donating less than $2000 dollars. A great site, it even lists the donations by sector of the economy and other interesting demographics. Take a look at who the defense industry is putting it’s money behind. Also the energy sector, would be nice if it was split up by type of energy, perhaps later.

So, don’t let pundits and charlatans attempt to steer you wrong, look at sites and inform yourself, get involved, this time is very important. Make an informed decision rather than an emotional response to pandering as we’ve been so accustomed to.

Plisk | 2/13/2008, 11:10 pm EST

Bumfuzzled: do your research. Obama has a MUCH HIGHER amount of donors over Senator Clinton, and a HUGE chunk of his money comes from small internet donations.

Believe what you want, but Clinton is more likely to get bigger chunks from corporate sponsors than Obama is. Go to Opensecrets.org and you can get a pretty good search on donor names for candidates.

Anonymous | 2/14/2008, 9:15 am EST

(Jed Clampett)

Don’t be misled, keep in mind that no individual contribution to a candidate can be greater than a couple of grand. Companies have a tendency to bundle their employees donations into a large donation to a candidate, this leaves room for malfeasance of course… Do I know that my company gave the money to the candidate I donated to? Does the government know if the company actually donated the money in the employee’s name in order to circumvent the rules? Stil needs lots of work unfortunately.

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