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Poll-a-Pallooza

2/3/08, 10:17 pm EST

From Talking Points Memo:

ABC/WaPo: Clinton 47%, Obama 43%
Pew: Clinton 46%, Obama 38%
NYT/CBS: Clinton 41%, Obama 41%
USAToday/Gallup: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%

One quick thought about these national polls as they relate to Tsunami Tuesday.

To this date, Clinton has had a consistent lead in states that Obama has not yet contested, but this lead can quickly evaporate once Obama shows up on air and on the campaign trail.  See for instance: California.

These national polls are likely to be skewed in Clinton’s favor by in big, non-Tsunami Tuesday states like Texas and Pennsylvania, where Clinton has a substantial advantage based on name recognition. My gut tells me you have to give Obama a 2 or 3 point bump from his national average to reflect his average in the states that will be fought for on Tuesday.


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Comments

Puff-N-Stuff | 2/4/2008, 9:22 am EST

Tim

I’ve had a chance to look over these numbers, and if we keep them in the proper context, we may be able to examine them and find another underlying result that not yet dawned on many of us.
If we look at the last 3 weeks in the California Democrat Primary and the last 8 days for the Republicans in the same state, we’ll find that they mirror certain voting patters in New Hampshire.
Even thought, some of the candidates have dropped out at his time, if we look closely at the end result in New Hampshire and in Arizona, we find that in the Privet Polling System that many of the News Media use, one result remains constant and has been proven time and time again..

These people do not know what the hell they are talking about and have been wrong more times than they have been right!!
If these same people were making odds in Vegas,, ( BABYYY ), the mob would have taken them out long, long ago..
Yes, not you, nor me, nor the Big Shots in NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, BBC, MSNBC, C-Span, or PETA know who the phuk is going to win this one on either side, and anyone who can tell you with certain that Hillary, Obama, McCain, or Romney is going to win big, sure as hell were not betting their money on the Patriots clobbering of the Giants last night!!

BurnDaddy | 2/4/2008, 9:43 am EST

?

David... | 2/4/2008, 10:37 am EST

Polls are just a bunch of people asking questions of a bunch of people. That’s all. The results are interesting, but certainly not written in stone.

Same thing for your guesses of what might happen Tuesday. Any good reporter would never “project” his/her own ideas. Whenever you start guessing what’s going to happen it’s only a matter of time before you’re wrong, and you lose your credibility. Ooops.

As long as we’re guessing, I’ll guess that you’re wrong and Obama will have a better showing than you think. McCain already has it in the bag.

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