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Trouble for Obama: 36 Percent Undecided in South Carolina

1/24/08, 2:53 pm EST

Anyone who thinks Barack Obama is a lock to win in South Carolina this weekend is fooling themselves.

This latest poll shows Obama with a sizeable lead — 27 to 20 percent — but also indicates that 36 percent of Democratic voters are undecided.

In Nevada, as in New Hampshire, the late deciders broke decidedly in Clinton’s favor.

All of which points to the fact that Obama camp is, once again, terribly mismanaging the expectations game. As they did in both New Hampshire and Nevada, they’re embracing the perception of front-runnerdom and doing nothing to guard themselves against defeat.

Look at what Clinton has done in each state: Essentially conceding defeat in the days before New Hampshire and Nevada. The tactic apparently has invigorated her supporters — Hillary needs me! — while at the same time both raising the stakes of a potential Obama defeat and buffering themselves against the possibility of a loss.

OK, maybe they really did believe they were going down in flames in New Hampshire. But in Nevada, despite late polls showing Clinton in first place, her camp predicted a five point loss to Obama. Obama did nothing to contest that expectation. So when she pops up with a six point victory it creates a perception of momentum out of what was really a status quo victory.

What’s curious is that even if Obama does win this Saturday, it does him no good to pose as if that were the foregone conclusion heading into the contest. Indeed, it minimizes any bounce he’s likely to get coming out of South Carolina.

Why not use the New Hampshire precedent to say the polls are phooey and that this is going to be a tight, tight contest? If he wins going away, he looks all the stronger.

As it stands, if Obama loses this weekend, he’s in deep trouble.

Given the uncontested expectations created by a combination of his consistent lead in the polls and Hillary not even campaigning in the state, I’m not sure a loss in the Palmetto State is a blow he can recover from.


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Comments

harpo | 1/24/2008, 3:11 pm EST

where the hell is Oprah now?

James | 1/24/2008, 3:29 pm EST

SC-Pres (D)
Jan 24 Clemson
Obama 27%, Clinton 20%, Edwards 17%

SC-Pres (D)
Jan 24 ARG
Obama 45%, Clinton 36%, Edwards 12%

SC-Pres (D)
Jan 24 Zogby
Obama 39%, Clinton 24%, Edwards 19%

Only the Clemson poll has him only up by 7, arg has him up by nine – and Zogby has him up by 15.

but Wait!!!! | 1/24/2008, 3:32 pm EST

Oh, but Tim! You overlooked the most interesting part of the pole.

Obama’s lead over Clinton is safely outside the margin of error. (Not that said margin means much is this cycle of record turn-outs and unpredictable polls).

But Clinton’s lead over Edwards — son of the south — is well within the margin.

If this poll is to be trusted, we could easily see Hillary land another third place finish behind Edwards and Obama, which would, in my view, put Obama back on the level playing field he was dealing with post-Iowa.

but, WAIT!!! | 1/24/2008, 3:38 pm EST

**wait, where’d my previous comment go, I’ll repeat it.**

Hold up, Tim… you overlooked the most interesting part of the poll.

Barack’s lead over Hillary is outside of the margin of error — not that said margin is of much comfort to the Obama team in this cycle of unpredictable polls and record turn-outs.

But Hillary’s lead over Edwards is statistically insignificant. It’s well within the margin of error at only 20-17 percent. The Son of the South could well pull a second place finish down there, knocking Hillary to third — a development which could profoundly shake-up the contest in a way that a simple Hillary loss to Barack could not. That could put Edwards in contention, at least in the South.

Don’t forget — the debate last Monday was, in the eyes of many press observers, a stand-out moment for Edwards. And we’ve already observed how Edwards takes votes away from Hillary at least as much as he does from Barack.

Not trying to be an Edwards supporter (I’m not) desperately clinging to a slim chance of a comeback — *but*… if you want to talk about up-ending the expectations game, this is Edward’s chance to do just that.

GeorgeJohn | 1/24/2008, 5:00 pm EST

I think the point is how will that undecided break, and might it break heavily in favor of Clinton.

I don’t think this will happen, but getting the vote out is key.

GeorgeJohn | 1/24/2008, 5:00 pm EST

I think the point is how will that undecided break, and might it break heavily in favor of Clinton.

I don’t think this will happen, but getting the vote out is key.

ava | 1/24/2008, 5:51 pm EST

Hillary has no chance of winning a national election. She simply does not have it.

Tim | 1/24/2008, 5:58 pm EST

Obama’s ideas about change are inspiring to say the least, but can he inspire a million more people to vote for him before the nomination?

elizard | 1/24/2008, 7:10 pm EST

Hillary is much stronger then anyone thinks. SC is nothing. I can’t wait until we vote here in CA – which IS Clinton country. I want a good steward of the econom and I know EXACTLY what I’m getting with Hillary. If you think that’s not a good thing, you were asleep during her husband’s presidency.

Jane | 1/24/2008, 7:56 pm EST

He wins South Carolina. McCain clobbers Clinton in the national election and the NY Times once again endorses a loser in the name of Clinton.

H-towner | 1/24/2008, 7:58 pm EST

elizard,
I just want to point out the ignorance in your statement:

“I know EXACTLY what I’m getting with Hillary. If you think that’s not a good thing, you were asleep during her husband’s presidency”

Bill is not Hillary therefore Bill’s success can’t be passed onto Hillary. I can understand that you appreciate Bill’s presidency but we do have TERM LIMITS. Let Hillary run on her own record and merits. It’s amazing how quickly you have forgotten her disastrous health care plan in 1993. How can she be an effective president when republicans hate her and she tends to bring out the worst in people?

Jay | 1/24/2008, 8:11 pm EST

I’m going to put on my tin foil hat here and wonder ‘do reports of oversized undecided votes fore-shadow vote count fixing?’

Ok – so paranoid, but NH did have some interesting ‘issues’ with their recount.

Jay | 1/24/2008, 8:19 pm EST

PS. Looks like Edwards is making a last minute leap over Hillary, sending a clear message to the rest of America that irrespective of their skin colour, SC does not approve of Clinton dirty tricks. I hope she is defeated resoundingly by Obama and Edwards, then see how they spin Obama’s win away due to race when large numbers of the white voters reject her for Edwards.

Truesdell | 1/24/2008, 8:22 pm EST

Obama may be in over his head…the Clintons’ one-two sucker punches has him gasping for air. They are street fighters; he is professorial. Not only does he keep losing the “expectations game” but HIS voters – blacks, the young – poll well but vote in disappointing numbers.

Long-term View | 1/24/2008, 9:09 pm EST

Hillary and Bill’s major mistake is that they believe after the primaries are over the Democrats will come together. Wrong, Wrong and triple wrong. The attacks have been so dirty that a lot of Obama supporter will not vote for her under any situation.
I for one would vote for McCain, before I vote for Hillary and if the Republican nominee was anybody else I will vote in every race except for President.

Robyn | 1/25/2008, 12:05 am EST

TURN THE PAGE!!!

Sen. Obama’s message of hope and unity are extremely powerful. People need to hear something positive and inspiring, in order to motivate the American people to take action in our electoral process and allow people to believe in our federal government and its role in our lives

This should be an obvious choice. The DNC and Obama should join forces and take the party and America into the future. I do not want to go backwards.

TURN THE PAGE!!

Lisa F. | 1/25/2008, 12:58 am EST

Hillary can never win the election because the Obama supporters will never vote for her under any circumstances. I believe we would all prefer to go republican

Lisa F. | 1/25/2008, 12:58 am EST

Hillary can never win the election because the Obama supporters will never vote for her under any circumstances. I believe we would all prefer to go republican

Lisa F. | 1/25/2008, 12:58 am EST

Hillary can never win the election because the Obama supporters will never vote for her under any circumstances. I believe we would all prefer to go republican

not hungry any more | 1/25/2008, 8:43 am EST

Someone should tell CheezCakeFuctory that EAT VD doesn’t do much for the appetite.

Jean | 1/25/2008, 2:05 pm EST

Obama wins S. Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Illinois – maybe a few more. But Clinton takes New York & California (her Hispanics & women “firewall”), then goes on to lose to McCain in November. In 2012, hopefully, millions more will take Obama seriously. In the meantime, he will have to distinguish himself INSIDE the Beltway. I love him.

Cara | 1/25/2008, 6:44 pm EST

I am with everyone else! If Hillary wins the democratic nomination, I will vote Republican. And so will the rest of Obama’s supporters because all of us are against her! She is evil, and people are stupid for voting for her. What is wrong with the people who support her? I don’t understand! Anyways, for everyone in South Carolina, do what is right and vote for Obama!!!

Cara | 1/25/2008, 6:44 pm EST

I am with everyone else! If Hillary wins the democratic nomination, I will vote Republican. And so will the rest of Obama’s supporters because all of us are against her! She is evil, and people are stupid for voting for her. What is wrong with the people who support her? I don’t understand! Anyways, for everyone in South Carolina, do what is right and vote for Obama!!!

Torey | 1/25/2008, 10:35 pm EST

Just because Obama is a great orator does not make him a great candidate! Wake up people this is insane!

VA | 1/26/2008, 1:20 am EST

Wow, a couple of Hillary haters around. You know, Hillay will win general election. The reason: Macain is clueless about economy – the most important issue now. And he still want stay in Iraq, a $100 billion waste per year.

Cliton was the smartest president ever. The whole world admired US then. Now what? You think about it when you lost your job, your house, and well, your 401K.

DirtyDennis | 1/26/2008, 8:49 am EST

Cara, et al

Look up the word narcisstic. Then look into the mirror.

I hate to point this out, but the election ’should’ be to choose who will be best for the country, NOT who ‘you’ like. That’s partly why we’re in the mess we’re in.

Try to rise above your petty banality and make a ‘choice,’ from reason, not from spite.

coco | 1/26/2008, 2:47 pm EST

I got no dog in the game but it appears the Obama folks do hate the Clintons a lot. Why wouldn’t they vote for her if she’s the nominee? They say they’d rather vote for the repubs. Now that’s hate.

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