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As John Edwards Goes…

1/9/08, 1:30 pm EST

…so, inversely, goes Obama.

Having slept on last night’s results it occurs to me that John Edwards is the only thing keeping Hillary Clinton viable in this race.

Here’s 20 percent of the Democratic vote, hanging onto — at this point — a nonviable candidate. And as fervently as they are for John Edwards, they are equally contra Clinton.

If Edwards were to withdraw — say, in exchange for a new cabinet position … poverty czar? — and throw his weight squarely behind Obama, Barack’s core support goes from the high thirties to near 50.

Game. Set. Match.


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Comments

wrensis | 1/9/2008, 1:48 pm EST

Don’t let all of those failed predictions stop you. We just love it when you fall on your collective butts.

SS | 1/9/2008, 1:48 pm EST

It will be even more great if “candidate-lite, empty-cliched” Barack resigns and throws his weight behind John Edwards.

Then John Edwards can be a frontline opponent to all corporate-owned Hillary and Republican candidates.

Deb Jurczak | 1/9/2008, 1:59 pm EST

So far, the pundits have been so far off the mark, that by virtue of the fact that you call Edwards “nonviable,” he’ll probably win. BTW, he’s the best candidate, and it’s amazing he’s managed to place second and third considering the media’s in love with hillary and obama and that’s all we ever hear about.

susan | 1/9/2008, 2:22 pm EST

As an Edwards supporter, I can tell you that if he pulls out, my support will go to Clinton. I do not trust Obama’s world view, and he’s shown poor judgement in my opinion when quizzed on foreign policy matters. For myself, I hope he stays in until the convention, if for no other reason than to protest the way the primaries are set up. The schedule virtually guarantees that whoever has the most money wins. Therefore, the game can be rigged before it even begins.

framecop | 1/9/2008, 3:23 pm EST

And Obama entered the race in the first place to prevent John Edwards from stopping Hillary Clinton. Everyone in DC knew that Clinton and Edwards were going to be running. Barack Obama was the wild card. He’s the one who said back in 2004, that he definitely wasn’t going to be a candidate for President in 2008. Apparently, someone got to his ear, and convinced him to run, and as soon as the media began hyping him from day one, he took all of the spotlight and all of the money that would have went to Edwards, who the media ignored from day one. So, now that Obama has benefited from the media pumping him up to the point that he took everything that Edwards would have had, had Obama stayed in the Senate like he said he was going to do, people want to try and act like “Edwards” is the one who’s in the way.

Sorry. Obama is the one who got in Edwards’ way, and made sure that Edwards couldn’t stop Hillary Clinton. Obama’s only 46 years old. John Edwards is 54, eight years older than Obama.

Obama should have waited 8 years, until 2016, when there will be massive demographic and ideological shifts in this country. New Hampshire showed you last night that “THE BRADLEY EFFECT” still exists. Obama’s always going to poll well, but he’d get torched in 2008, because voters aren’t going to elect a 3-year, first-term black Senator whose middle name is “HUSSEIN.”

It’s not going to happen. He’s in John Edwards’ way, and people with “perspective” understand that, because Edwards actually has a better chance of winning a General Election if nominated, than Obama or Clinton do.

framecop | 1/9/2008, 3:30 pm EST

Raoul O’Connell –

Not only that, but Fortress Investment Group, the hedge fund where John Edwards worked, has donated money to the Clinton and Obama campaigns, something that the media has never once mentioned when they criticized Edwards over receiving campaign money from Fortress, and never once called Obama or Clinton on, when they both decided to “ATTACK” John Edwards over his ties to Fortress.

Fortress Investment Group also donated money to Chris Dodd and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

This just proves how the media have had it out for John Edwards, from the beginning, to try and bring him down.

They also smear him over the money he receives from trial lawyers, but Clinton has received about $1.5 million MORE from lawywers/law firms than Edwards has, according to Open Secrets.

I’m sick of this crap, which is why Edwards doesn’t need to go anywhere. The media have been trying to get him out of the race. He needs to stay in it just to keep the corporate-owned media up at night.

delegate count | 1/9/2008, 4:05 pm EST

This thing ain’t over for Edwards. The delegate count is O25, C24, E18. If Edwards does well in South Carolina, where he’s won before, this is a 3-way deadheat.

inrssa | 1/9/2008, 4:40 pm EST

I hope Edwards stays to the end.
Consistently he has polled as the candidate that would defeat every Republican.
No Media attention.
It is obvious that the Media fears an Edwards presidency. Why?
Thinking people should demand answers.

Obama has been anointed. The Messiah come to save the world. The arrogance is overwhelming.
Two and half years in the US Senate; does not have time to do the job he was elected to do; too busy campaigning. Missed 83% of the votes. No scrutiny for the Press.
How does Obama explain this? The “urgency of now” What does that mean?
Now things are so bad he has to jump in early to save the world? Please someone explain.
It’s pathetic! Putin must be laughing. First Bush looked into his eyes; now Obama will look into his soul and save humanity.

Raoul | 1/9/2008, 5:02 pm EST

Wow,

Great comments here! We need to let our friends and coworkers know whats going on, how a good candidate is being neglected in favor of 2 establishment types heavily indebted to corporations and the corporate media that celebrates them.

Spread the word about John! If you can, go to his website and send him money.

Raoul

Somewhere In the Middle | 1/9/2008, 5:59 pm EST

Barack resigns and throws his weight behind John Edwards.

YES!!! And perhaps Edwards could announce that as president, the first nomination he makes to the Supreme Court will be Barack.

Jen Q | 1/9/2008, 6:26 pm EST

Lol- step away from the laptop and go talk to real voters. Your assumption that all – or most – Edwards voters are uniformly anti-Hillary isn’t necessarily well founded.

JC | 1/9/2008, 8:22 pm EST

Pretty obvious what’s going on here: a bunch of Edwards people who’ve looked up Edwards on google news, and this is the best they could do.

I actually like Edwards a lot. Most of the claims on this thread about Ba4rack are totally false, though. Particularly that he raised $80 million for corporate interests. I’ve given over $1000 to Obama’s campaign, and I make $50k/year. Along with nearly 500,000 other people, it’s folks like me who are funding this campaign, not corporations.

That Edwards supporters would lash out against Barack like this shows that they really don’t believe in edwards’ message in the first place–they’re probably just a bunch of racist, sexist wackos. Barack and Edwards have more in common than any major candidates in recent history.

If you’re behind your man because of his message, there’s no way you’re voting for HRC….EVER.

I’d get behind Edwards in a heart beat if he had a chance. But he doesn’t. Every 3rd place candidate brings up the “only 1% of America has voted” thing — right before they drop out. It’s called a swan song. Enjoy it.

JAC | 1/9/2008, 8:22 pm EST

Pretty obvious what’s going on here: a bunch of Edwards people who’ve looked up Edwards on google news, and this is the best they could do.

I actually like Edwards a lot. Most of the claims on this thread about Ba4rack are totally false, though. Particularly that he raised $80 million for corporate interests. I’ve given over $1000 to Obama’s campaign, and I make $50k/year. Along with nearly 500,000 other people, it’s folks like me who are funding this campaign, not corporations.

That Edwards supporters would lash out against Barack like this shows that they really don’t believe in edwards’ message in the first place–they’re probably just a bunch of racist, sexist wackos. Barack and Edwards have more in common than any major candidates in recent history.

If you’re behind your man because of his message, there’s no way you’re voting for HRC….EVER.

I’d get behind Edwards in a heart beat if he had a chance. But he doesn’t. Every 3rd place candidate brings up the “only 1% of America has voted” thing — right before they drop out. It’s called a swan song. Enjoy it.

Anonymous | 1/9/2008, 10:07 pm EST

How is someone nonviable when they are the only Democrat that outpolls every Republican in a head to head matchup? He’s nonviable because the media would rather cover the battle royale between Clinton and Obama. A black man fighting a white woman named Clinton for the nomination makes for a good story but it also makes for a crappy way to select a nominee. The media is doing this country a disservice. Tim, you make it sound like Edwards owes Obama something. Are you serious? It’s one thing to have only two parties and pretend they are representative of the diverse views of the population. It is quite another, however, to suggest that we should only have two candidates after two states have voted in the primary season. What a democratic process!

JRE for USA | 1/9/2008, 11:03 pm EST

I support John Edwards (and have since the last election) because I strongly believe he would be a great president and because he has the best shot to win the general election with the largest margin possible. His misfortune is to be sandwiched in a race with two “historic” candidates who are the darlings of the Main Stream Media. I know that I am watching my party overlook the candidate who could help secure the largest congressional majority, but feel despondent about not being able to do much to prevent it at this point. I will support John as long as he stays in the race. If he drops out I’ll just sort of sit back and watch the train wreck unfold.

CAReal | 1/10/2008, 1:58 am EST

I will continue to support JOHN EDWARDS because he has clear plans to end the war in Iraq, strengthen the middle class, provide universal healthcare for ALL Americans, fight worldwide poverty, reverse the effects of global warming, strengthen domestic defense, root out and shut down terrorist cells, and restore American leadership in the world.

As for Obama? I’m not sure where he stands with progressives. After all, he campaigned for Joe Lieberman in 2006!

DirtyDennis | 1/10/2008, 8:36 am EST

Finally!! Dialog. (Save for the ‘usual suspects.’) I don’t care who wins but confess a CEO reign has a certain ring to it. But I DO care that the media is not ‘reporting’ events and that you few are making pointed observations. Keep up the good work. The system is broke but not irreparable.

Anon | 1/10/2008, 3:51 pm EST

um, is going from the “high thirties to near 50″ really that big of a deal?

Here are the results from New Hampshire:

Hillary Clinton: 39.2%
Barack Obama: 36.4
John Edwards: 16.9%
Bill Richardson: 4.6%
Dennis Kucinich: 1.4%
Joe Biden: 0.2%
Mike Gravel: 0.1%
Chris Dodd: 0.1%

Bill Richardson is now out, so his votes are up for grabs. If Edwards is also out, then there is only (roughly) 1.8% of the vote for candidates other than Obama and Clinton.

Thus, I would expect both Clinton and Obama to be at near 50% if Edwards would leave the race and his votes equally went to both candidates.

(Yes, I realize that I’m oversimplifying this in that each state has difference percentages, etc. But my point is that if the election is basically down to two candidates who are presently very close to each other, you could expect them to be at near 50% assuming that the people who drop out vote equally for each candidate.

DirtyDennis | 1/10/2008, 5:50 pm EST

Anon,

I could sure use a primer on what’s what with this whole primary business. I have a feeling we’d all be better off if a concensus unfolds. If it’s close at the end, it could get ugly.

For example, if Edwards drops out after a couple of months, what becomes of his delegates? And do superdelegates have any impact in the overall process?

Truly, this IS a spectator sport inasmuch as each of us has the impact on our state’s outcome that a gnat has on an elephant’s ass. I have a feeling that when it’s all said and done, the ‘pbls’ haven’t really spoken.

But it’s a feel-good story, right? Just look at them at the convention. They’re happy. Why?

Eastweed | 1/10/2008, 11:14 pm EST

There’s no reason to think Edwards supporters are backing him simply because they don’t like Hilary. If he drops his supporters are just as likely to split or to run to her instead.

Obama is doing fine the way he’s going. NH was bull and won’t be replicated without a sharp challenge from the “Chicago” politician. Fixing polls might have worked during Bush’s reign, but the Clinton’s time is up.

Krs | 1/11/2008, 8:24 pm EST

Wow, I have to agree with Jac’s comments. Militant Edwards’ supporters, die-hard to the end. Problem is, it’ll be the end of the Democratic party with Hillary taking the prize because of ol Johnny Boy’s ego. Face it, he was a loser in ‘04 and he’s a loser now. This man is going nowhere, and he knows it. It’s cruel to string supporters along giving them false hope.

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