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Obama’s California Dream

1/8/08, 1:19 pm EST

Before the 2008 primary/caucus schedule got squeezed to within an inch of 2007, there was a nifty national strategy available to candidates: Bank votes in big states by absentee ballot before Iowa and New Hampshire have a chance to upend national public opinion.

I was speaking to strategist Chris Lehane earlier this year and he outlined the way this strategy might work out:

“There could be more Democrats who will vote absentee in Los Angeles county than Democrats who cast votes in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina combined. And they could vote before the first caucus in Iowa.”

Well, that was when the Iowa caucus was scheduled for next Monday, January 14.

As it stands, California’s absentee voters, who make up roughly 40 percent of the primary electorate, will be getting their ballots later this week, perhaps tomorrow. If everything goes according to the polling, that’s the day after Barack Obama will have sealed his second victory over Hillary Clinton in a romp.

All of which means that Obama can now start locking in his Big Mo before he ever gets to South Carolina or Nevada. California loves to vote for a winner. And there’s something Schwarzenegger-ian about Obama’s sunny post-partisanship. Even if Clinton somehow forges a comeback between now and Palmetto State, Obama will have been busy cherry picking from the motherlode of convention delegates.

This is similarly bad news for Rudy Giuliani. His big state gamble will be looking worse and worse if John McCain emerges victorious tonight. Like Obama his win could beget a much bigger win among the Golden State’s GOP and independent absentee voters.

There was talk that the revamped primary schedule might minimize the importance of the tiny early states. Right now Iowa and New Hampshire are looking like the butterflies whose flapping wings will give rise to Obama’s perfect storm.


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Comments

bk | 1/8/2008, 1:30 pm EST

Tim, is Obama paying you for all this coverage?

Baffled in Buffalo. | 1/8/2008, 2:23 pm EST

Tim –

Can you tell us how this primary works? How many states will Barack or Hillary have to win to lock this thing in? Will it be over on Super Tuesday? I’ve read that the democratic party reserves a certain number of delegates for themselves — in other words, even if the voting public gives the most delegates to Barack, cigar-smoking establishment people could still tip the scale to Hillary. Help us out… How’s the whole darn thing work, strategically speaking?

Andrew | 1/8/2008, 2:31 pm EST

Come on, BK — the point of the post is that absentee voting in California further amplifies the “gatekeeper” function of New Hampshire and Iowa.

Bella | 1/8/2008, 3:17 pm EST

Ugh, Puleaze. Obama is a joke with buzzwords catering to gullible people.

Some of us are smarter than that and aren’t drinking the Kool Aide with an expiration date or letting the media pick our next President for us.

Lenwood | 1/8/2008, 3:33 pm EST

Thank you for the article Tim. I’m a born and raised Californian who has been wishing and hoping for someone like Sen. Obama to come along. Californians have been watching Barack’s brilliant campaign and movement grow steadily for sometime now, and I’m confident that our primary ballot’s will reflect our support for him.

Anonymous | 1/8/2008, 3:33 pm EST

Hillary would make a good librarian.

stax | 1/8/2008, 3:34 pm EST

Hillary would make a good librarian.

joseph pierre | 1/8/2008, 4:18 pm EST

There’s tsunami coming to CA.

JC | 1/8/2008, 4:37 pm EST

All of you are now casting Obama as the media favorite, bandwagon, candidate who has no substance… WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN FOR THE LAST YEAR? Hillary has been the preordained nominee by the press, and the democratic establishment, since “day 1.” Obama has overcome tremendous odds, mobilized new voters, and appealed to a broad range of the electorate. Nobody likes sore losers.

DirtyDennis | 1/8/2008, 5:02 pm EST

I think bk was speaking to the general theme Tim has been exhibiting the past week or so, not so much this particular thread. My read on it is that Tim sees the absentee ballots as some sort of boon to Obama although it eludes me as to how.

He claims CA loves a winner, but I’d be interested in seeing specifics to support such a claim. In fact I’d be interested in any attempt to paint CA as anything. It’s too amorphous to be categorized.

The article Tim points to states that absenteers are older and better educated, not quite the type who would be ’stampeded’ because of a candidates success in IA or NH. Nor do they sound like the type who are ‘revolutionary.’ Further, Tim would seem to believe that these absenteers are going to rush to get their ballots in the mail. Based upon … ?

Finally, just when are those absentee votes due in and when are they to be to be counted and published? At the time of CA’s primary? If so, what’s the relevance? ALL of CAs votes are valuable and it sounds, from the article, as though HRC’s folks are working the absentee pump there pretty hard. No mention of Obama’s team doing that. If he’s only relying on Big Mo to carry the day, he might be a little disappointed.

A2DaB | 1/8/2008, 5:05 pm EST

WOW! you all should respect Mr. Obama, becase i think that no one has stablished anything this far as Obama did, this is like a dream come true. Go on Obama!

Paul Patrol | 1/8/2008, 5:20 pm EST

How about some coverage of Dr. Paul? It’s obvious this is just another MSM black-out.

dg | 1/8/2008, 5:42 pm EST

i think obama will win im voting for him.wont he be the first african american president

dg | 1/8/2008, 5:42 pm EST

i think obama will win im voting for him.wont he be the first african american president

dg | 1/8/2008, 5:42 pm EST

i think obama will win im voting for him.wont he be the first african american president

DirtyDennis | 1/8/2008, 5:56 pm EST

If you have to ask that then I don’t think you should be voting.

The Real Jesus Christ | 1/8/2008, 6:11 pm EST

Unfortunatly, Obama won’t be able to achieve unity, the republicans won’t allow it. They refuse to listen to anything that contradicts their agenda. I like Obama, but I have no illusions about what he can and cannot achieve. The republicans will stand in his way at every turn.

Diggler | 1/8/2008, 6:35 pm EST

Jesus Christ, what’s your point? Sounds like you might as well just stick your head even further up your ass and call it quits.

GMJ | 1/8/2008, 6:48 pm EST

To Bella, “Obama is a joke with buzzwords catering to gullible people. ”
You obviously haven’t been paying attention. The media picked Hillary Clinton as the next president, but Obama’s results have trumped their prediction, so now they’re all singing his praises because it’s such a big story and the polls actually mean something now that we’re so close to the actual primaries and caucuses. Obama inspires people more than anyone who has come along since Dr. Martin Luther King by reminding them of the power they have to make a difference. I’m sure there were the naysayers who scoffed and derided him to, but here we stand today living out his creed. Who’d have thought…..

Go OBAMA ‘08! Can’t Wait!

Andrew | 1/9/2008, 12:11 pm EST

it would appear all those CA absentee ballots will not be voting for Hillary.

Endaboy Teages | 1/10/2008, 3:36 am EST

I think BO will win the presidency not because he is black or what? but only because he is highly educated, far sighted, intelligent guy. America deserves educated president for God’s sake once.
Thankyou

nancy lawrence | 1/30/2008, 11:10 pm EST

I voted absent T

two weeks ago.

Obama…hands down!

Eureka, CA

nancy lawrence | 1/30/2008, 11:10 pm EST

I voted absent T

two weeks ago.

Obama…hands down!

Eureka, CA

Neighborhood Crow Server | 2/15/2008, 1:04 pm EST

Ouch, suprised you haven’t pulled this article, seeing as how each of your predictions was 100% wrong. Brave man.

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