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Crunching the Campaign Numbers

7/16/07, 6:59 pm EST

By now you’ve probably seen the top-line data on the solvency of the 2008 campaigns: McCain is broke, Obama and Hillary are rolling in it, yadda yadda.
But let’s take a look at primary cash-on-hand minus debt. (And I throw Ron Paul in here only to appease the members of the Paul Patrol I upset by besmirching his good name in my post RuPaul McRompson). This seems like the fairest snapshot of financial health:
(in $millions)

Obama 34.5
Clinton 29.7
Giuliani 14.7
Edwards 12.1
Richardson 6.9
Romney 3.2
Paul 2.3
McCain 0.1

Interesting that John Edwards is only a couple mil shy of Giuliani right now. It suggests that he’s still got enough cash to mount a credible campaign, but that the Democratic frontrunners are now a financial orbit all their own.

The Richardson/Romney disparity is also eye-brow raising. But Romney’s ability to self finance (he’s already lent his campaign more than six million) makes this kind of disparity more or less moot. John McCain’s money troubles are just sad. Little wonder his campaign has hit the reboot button.

Here’s another little metric I devised to offer a gauge of sustainability for the candidates. It’s the cash measure above divided by amount of money the campaign has already spent. Think of it as a burn rate.

Outlier Ron Paul does great, with only $700K spent but more than $2.3 million at hand. You gotta like that ratio. He can afford to build out his campaign and start making more noise.

This measure shows that Hillary, despite trailing slightly in the money chase, has better burn rate than Obama. But it also reveals that Richardson and Edwards have lived within their means. They’re still saving for that rainy day when either Obama or Clinton slip.
Again bad news for the GOP. A figure of 1 would be sustainable. Cash out the door=cash in hand for the next quarter. But it looks like the top Republicans are depleting their war chests faster than they can fill them. Again, put a fork in McCain.

Paul 3.28
Clinton 1.66
Obama 1.52
Edwards 1.24
Richardson 1.11
Giuliani 0.84
Romney 0.09
McCain 0.004


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Comments

thanks I guess | 7/16/2007, 7:17 pm EST

I’d rather you didn’t stick Dr. Paul in there just because you wanted to appease us supporters of his but I’ll take what I can get. While I understand that you can’t discuss each candidate just any group thinks is relevant since you would end up with thousands, there are plenty of reasons to mention RP besides some people insisting that you do. The dude has some political ideals that are worth looking into.

JTaverner | 7/16/2007, 7:26 pm EST

Thank’s for the article, Tim. The burn rate was very insightful. I’ve donated to Paul and will be voting for him. He’s the only Republican who’s applied fiscal conservatism to their campaign. You can see where the US economy will be headed with Giuliani-Romney-McCain leadership.

Smack | 7/16/2007, 7:56 pm EST

Appease us Ron Paul supporters? Get your facts right please.
Did you have to condescend to ‘appease’ us poor, know-nothings?
Aww…
And by the way, Paul has more cash than that by about a million. Research it a little better if you want to remain credible.

You don’t hear any of the other Candidates mention the Constitution, much less a return to Government adherence to it. Why is that?

Tommy | 7/16/2007, 8:07 pm EST

Thank you so much for “appeasing” me. I know it’s radical to actually care about the constitution. Those founding father fellas were so fringe.

DELTAWILDMAN | 7/16/2007, 9:03 pm EST

WHAT IF WE CONVERTED IT TO PENNIES, THEN DEVIDED BY ANY GIVEN DAY OF THE MONTH,AS LONG AS IT’S NOT FRIDAY, THEN SQUARED IT?? WHAT WOULD THAT TELL US??

MarkCinPhx | 7/16/2007, 9:28 pm EST

Here…I’ll mention Obama, Hillary, Rudy, John, John, and Mitt in my comment, as everyone else is talking about Ron Paul. Oh wait…I’m supporting Ron Paul as well. Man…another one of those fringe people that need to be appeased.

Walker Pfost | 7/16/2007, 9:43 pm EST

It seems to me that any article regarding campaign finances should mention the wildly sustainable fund management of the Paul campaign, with or without pressure from the “Patrol.”

However, the mere existence of the “Patrol” reveals the one flaw in your otherwise applaudable analysis–you have left out grassroots support. Clearly, we Paul supporters are, rightly or wrongly, WAY more excited about our candidate than anyone else.

And no amount of money can buy that.

ray | 7/16/2007, 10:20 pm EST

Unless Obama starts doing better in the polls this may be his last big money quater. im seeing Rqo PAul bumber stickers and signs where i thought id see Obama.

Tim Dickinson | 7/16/2007, 10:25 pm EST

you da man tom dickinson!!!Go Ron Paul

Let Them Eat Cake | 7/16/2007, 11:08 pm EST

Ron Paul is

A. How Old?
B. Let’s have Paul’s political history.
C. I really want a candidate that can end up giving us a Republican Platform(Ugh).
C. Enough of Republican rhetoric-who wants a candidate that age can affect immensely and, would end up with Other Republicans to Replace him, ugh…

Let Them Eat Cake | 7/16/2007, 11:16 pm EST

I think everyone who has half a bran is smart enough to know that a pro war neo-con will not live in the White House in 2009.

Unfortunately, most people are so simple minded and black and white that their thought process says that if they don’t like Republican then that means they like Democrat.

I seriously doubt Hillary or Obama will bring the troops home (although they will seriously insinuate that they will).

Yet, we will get socialized health care and higher taxes. Watch what happens to your investments when they raise the capital gains tax. Ouch!

The only logical candidate is Ron Paul: anti-war, lower taxes.

BuckRogersIV | 7/17/2007, 12:31 am EST

Tim,

In addition to cash, Ron Paul has 25,000 meetup.com group members (and growing) who are spending their own money and time promoting him. Way more members than any other candidate (Obama is second with 6,000), plus Paul is adding 400 members a DAY and Obama is adding about 20 per day.

Paul is the man!

Paige Turner | 7/17/2007, 2:07 am EST

Another proud member of the “Paul Patrol” right here! Thanks for appeasing me. Just so you know, I don’t have a problem with the “RuPaul McRompson” post.

truth seeker | 7/17/2007, 6:32 am EST

I will be registering as a Republican and voting for Ron Paul. I also donated money to his campaign…. these things I have never done in my entire life. It’s because of his message:

Reduce the size of Federal government and return power to the individual states. There is nothing difficult to understand here.

I currently relay his message to most of those I come in contact with and people are waking up.

Ron is a seeker of truth with the Constitution as his guide….. is there anything wrong with that? At times, all branches of US government have been using the Constitution as toilet paper. Enough is enough.

Max Daman | 7/17/2007, 7:38 am EST

Look how Ron Paul runs his campaign, he is not spending money, til he makes it, hmm, just think what he could for our country and your tax dollar.

Hallzee | 7/17/2007, 9:20 am EST

NEWT 08

Jeanette Doney | 7/17/2007, 9:23 am EST

What I found more interesting than the article, which led me here, was the list of “Topics”, on the right side of the page. Why no Ron Paul topic? Who is RuPaul McRompson and where is the O’Hill John topic, since appeasing is the nature of today’s beast? RP08!

ND4RP | 7/17/2007, 10:29 am EST

I’m just hoping you don’t get fired for mentioning Ron Paul.

Way to Go! | 7/17/2007, 12:04 pm EST

Wow! I’m really actually very surprised that Rolling Stone magazine isn’t ALL OVER the Ron Paul phenom! He’s anti-war (and has the record to back that up) – he’s against the war on drugs, and he’s against the police state. Why the heck isn’t he on the cover, is all i’m wondering? Isn’t the hippy scene how Rolling Stone magazine earned it’s bread and butter in the 60s in the first place??

Tarheel 007 | 7/17/2007, 12:53 pm EST

Questions for RD to ask of Edwards:
1. How many 80 hr weeks has he worked (like 1000’s of NC nonprofit workers and state legislators when in session) doing something that directly benefited N. Carolina—or directly benefited ANYONE more than Edwards?
2. How much $ has Edwards made last few years from law, how much from politicking?
3. How much of the $$ he’s made/raised has he donated to nonprofits working to help the poor?
4. What % of his income and fundraising efforts has gone to (a) own family (b) self-promotion aka campaign (c) NC nonprofits helping the poor?
5. Compare % of his income that he gives to charity to what that lower-income people give. (Statistics always show lower-income people give a greater % to charity, because they better understand how much it’s needed.) (Donor info can be discerned from published nonprofit donor lists.)
6. Why didn’t he build a “modest” $1 million mansion, donate the $4.5 M to agencies helping the 1000’s homeless NC families? Same with those sixteen $175-400 haircuts
7. Compare his haircuts, house, income to annual budgets of some NC nonprofits providing services to the poor:
–Many NC nonprofits have entire budgets that are less than 100k/yr–with considerable time spent on raising those funds. Think how far his multi-million dollar house fund would’ve gone.
-How much has Edwards given to the NC Access to Justice campaign, a fundraising program targeted at lawyers, to raise money to provide the NC poor with civil legal service for help with slum landlords, disability, domestic violence, etc. At one time he gave only $50, far less than most lawyers. Also others give pro bono time–did Edwards? Did he help raise money? If he did nothing else, supporting this ONE cause could make a WORLD of difference for 1000’s in his own state.

Tarheel 007 | 7/17/2007, 1:01 pm EST

Q’s to ask Edward’s campaign:

1. How many 80 hr weeks has he worked (like 1000’s of NC nonprofit workers and state legislators when in session) doing something that directly benefited N. Carolina—or directly benefited ANYONE more than Edwards?
2. How much $ has Edwards made last few years from law, how much from politicking?
3. How much of the $$ he’s made/raised has he donated to nonprofits working to help the poor?
4. What % of his income and fundraising efforts has gone to (a) own family (b) self-promotion aka campaign (c) NC nonprofits helping the poor?
5. Compare % of his income that he gives to charity to what that lower-income people give. (Statistics always show lower-income people give a greater % to charity, because they better understand how much it’s needed.) (Donor info can be discerned from published nonprofit donor lists.)
6. Why didn’t he build a “modest” $1 million mansion, donate the $4.5 M to agencies helping the 1000’s homeless NC families? Same with those sixteen $175-400 haircuts
7. Compare his haircuts, house, income to annual budgets of some NC nonprofits providing services to the poor:
–Many NC nonprofits have entire budgets that are less than 100k/yr–with considerable time spent on raising those funds. Think how far his multi-million dollar house fund would’ve gone.
-How much has Edwards given to the NC Access to Justice campaign, a fundraising program targeted at lawyers, to raise money to provide the NC poor with civil legal service for help with slum landlords, disability, domestic violence, etc. At one time he gave only $50, far less than most lawyers. Also others give pro bono time–did Edwards? Did he help raise money? If he did nothing else, supporting this ONE cause could make a WORLD of difference for 1000’s in his own state.

Jason | 7/17/2007, 1:10 pm EST

Smart move putting Ron Paul in the article: it clearly attracts more readers and attention to an article that would otherwise have gone unnoticed.

More Ron Paul coverage = more readers, more popularity, and more money in the bank.

Plus his stand on the issues (voted against the Iraq war, voted against the patriot act, voted to end the war on drugs) kicks ass!

NEC | 7/17/2007, 4:34 pm EST

Appease us all you want. Ron Paul will by the next President and all the liberal/neo-con scum who have run this country into the ground will get theirs!

ron_paul_supporter_in_pa | 7/18/2007, 4:19 am EST

I know I only read it because it mentioned Dr. Ron Paul.

Small-Dickinson | 7/19/2007, 4:15 am EST

Tim Dickinson—Why do you even bother to show up for work? You are a total jagovf. You act like you are doing the world a favor by writing garbage. Take a year off. Make the world a better place.

1 | 7/20/2007, 5:12 pm EST

3

merik | 9/2/2007, 2:40 pm EST

hello world!

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