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Edwards’ Electability Edge?

6/20/07, 1:36 pm EST

Others have highlighted this poll data to point out Romney’s weakness against the Democrats. I don’t put too much faith in that aspect — the Democrats are largely known quantities. Romney’s still introducing himself, and where he’s spent the most time — eg, Iowa and New Hampshire — he’s surging.

But for most of the nation I think Romney is about as close a stand-in for Generic Republican as you’re going to get. And look at John Edwards’ edge over Hillary in this scenario. Eight points.

A top handicapper told me recently that he expects Hillary to perform in a general election as ‘Generic Democrat Minus Five Points.’ Meaning that she can win — but only in another wave election like we saw in the 2006 election, where resentment against Bush and the GOP gives Dems a 6 to 8 point head start.
Barack Obama may have a similar structural disadvantage. (Though given his ability to mobilize untraditional voters — millennials and gen xers in particular — he might be able to make up for it. He remains as ever a wild card.)
If Democrats are looking for a safer bet to take back the Oval office, Edwards the silver tongued Southern senator looks like a winner from this poll data…  especially if he’s fortunate to run against another flip flopper from Massachusetts.


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Comments

Wha? | 6/20/2007, 2:35 pm EST

Edwards has no chance, really, in a general. He’s the poster boy for everything trad-Republicans (now independents) dislike about the party.

Tucker and other Republicans have trumpeted Obama’s charisma as being a cross-party phenomenom…if only fellow Dems would start to see this.

Bloomburg, once he jumps in, will easily be able to steal the election from Hillary or Edwards…and just might be able to win the general (see high ‘independent’ registrations, his running mate Hegel’s popularity with mainstream GOP, and general hatred/resentment for both Congress, the Pres., and parties in general).

ray | 6/20/2007, 2:53 pm EST

Romney wont be nominated, Edwards is only at 16 percent in the latest Democratic poll. It looks bad for the GOP when all3 democrat front runners are way ahead of Romney.

If If If | 6/20/2007, 5:23 pm EST

So many “If’s”, so little chance of any of them happening. Besides Romney, (if he’s a generic Republican why is he trailing nationally in single figures) are there any other completely unlikely to be nominated Republicans Edwards could manage to beat? Maybe Johnny Ramone?

You’re relying on data/trends from prior elections, ie, fighting the last battle.

Bush won’t be on the ballot. It’ll be the Dem Congress against whoever the Repubs nominate. If it’s Giuliani, a non Washington pol, against Senator Clinton, the Repubs win again unless the Dem Congress accomoplishes something/anything the country wants … and it ain’t amnesty for illegal immigrants, more money for failing schools (tried that, don’t work) or .

Rasmussen Reports has Giuliani, and even McCain, leading over Dem inevitable nominee, Hilary. Obama mania has faded. Edwards has already peaked (at about 19%). So That leaves either Gore or a Hail Mary (Monica?) as the only alternative to Hilary.

Then again, it’s June 2007, a lot can happen. Both parties have lots of time to alienate the voters. A terrorist attack would crush any chance of Sen Clinton winning the nomination or the general election. Like it or not, this country isn’t ready to let a woman run the country in anything resembling an armed conflict.

A recession would hurt the Repubs. A downturn seems more likely and not till next year which may be too late for voters to notice. Unless gas hits $4, it’ll be a non-issue. Demand for gas even at $3 plus hasn’t slowed a bit.

I realize you have a column to post but try running some realistic, higher percentage scenarios if you want to rally the troops.

obvious | 6/20/2007, 5:27 pm EST

With Republicans talking about how “formidable” Clinton and Obama would be as opponents, i would hope Democrats would take these poll numbers seriously.

These poll numbers become even more stark when the electoral college is considered. If the Democrats nominate Clinton or Obama (or really anybody other than Edwards) my suspicion that they are addicted to losing will be confirmed.

Wha? | 6/20/2007, 6:04 pm EST

Obvious–Why would Obama be a losing pick? And who’s better–Edwards? That ‘War on Terror is nothing but a bumper sticker’ comment will haunt him to his grave and ensures a Dukakis-wamping in the general.

‘If If If’– Romney leads in the first three primary states…these are the important races. Two wins in these three primaries would ensure him an incredible amount of press and earned media. Plus, Republicans tend to fall in line, once a front-runner appears–with his posturing and looks, he’d then be a shoo-in for the GOP nom…

The truth | 6/20/2007, 6:55 pm EST

Ray knows nothing. NATIONAL PREFERENCE POLLS mean nothing. They get you good media attention, but they don’t mean anything in the nominating states. At this point last time, John Edwards was at 5% in the polls.

Things shift right before the people vote in the primaries. How old are you? Have you ever been around for an election before, because if you have, you must not have been paying attention.

annefrank | 6/20/2007, 8:16 pm EST

Edwards is the only Dem who can win the south and rural voters. However, he’s also calling out Big Oil, Big Insurance, Big Pharma – all corporate sponsors of the corporate media.
So – look for more haircut bashing from the media!

annefrank | 6/20/2007, 8:19 pm EST

Wha? wrote: That ‘War on Terror is nothing but a bumper sticker’ comment will haunt him to his grave…

Actually the House Budget Committee has banned the GWOT phrase in all their documents and the British government has done the same.
Perhaps you can urge Jack Bauer to run for prez – to keep you all stirred up and fearful.

ray | 6/20/2007, 10:08 pm EST

The truth is neither Edwards or Romney will be nominated. Polls do mean something, the money wont support someone with poor numbers and many voters will give up on a candidate with low numbers early on.

JoeCHI | 6/21/2007, 9:29 am EST

Edwards couldn’t even win his own state in 2004! Silver tongue my ass!

qwerty | 6/21/2007, 9:52 am EST

bottom line: the democrats have horrible candidates, election-wise. they have great candidates, policy-wise. they got the facts and the policy right–they just can’t get elected. clinton? are you kidding? obama? HAHAHAHAHHAAAA!!! stop smoking the good stuff, people. neither are electable. why, you ask? TAKE A LOOK AT THEM. YES, AMERICA IS THAT SHALLOW. if you think a woman or a black man can actually be elected president in the united states in 2008, you are dreaming. of COURSE they’re qualified. of COURSE they would make fine presidents. but that does NOT MEAN THEY WILL BE ELECTED. wake up. STOP THE ADDICTION TO LOSING.

Wha? | 6/21/2007, 1:26 pm EST

obvious– we shall have that world history test, anytime (even tho it has nothing to do with the price of tea in China).

Annie– You’re (mostly) right but that’s not how the populace understands it. Just think of the Cold War…that wasn’t a technical term, either…and yet, for over three decades, those two words defined American foreign policy. Branding is a magical thing, people.

Oh and also? You folks seem to constantly confuse taking exception to a point with disagreement…I’m not ‘pro war on terror’ and neither am I a fan of the Jack Bauer Power Hour. I am a liberal and do have an opinion…just because I disagree with you doesn’t make us mortal enemies, altho yr desire to frame it as such maybe says something about your inferiority complex. Go argue with the boreline fascists on politico.com if yr just here to beat up on the other side.

ann Maguire | 6/21/2007, 10:20 pm EST

John Edwards is my favorite . Don’t
count him out. I have seen him speak in person and he is magic.
IT is the PEOPLE who will elect him
not the media who have done their best to write him off. Just wait and watch him take the primaries.

ann Maguire | 6/21/2007, 10:20 pm EST

John Edwards is my favorite . Don’t
count him out. I have seen him speak in person and he is magic.
IT is the PEOPLE who will elect him
not the media who have done their best to write him off. Just wait and watch him take the primaries.

ann Maguire | 6/21/2007, 10:20 pm EST

John Edwards is my favorite . Don’t
count him out. I have seen him speak in person and he is magic.
IT is the PEOPLE who will elect him
not the media who have done their best to write him off. Just wait and watch him take the primaries.

Let Them Eat Cake | 6/22/2007, 2:52 am EST

Edwards does have a chance.
In 2008, things can change quickly.
Who knows if the polls have any validity-I think it’s strange that Hillary has bounced up so much-Most Democrats I know still prefer and will vote for Obama or Edwards, some are still waiting for Gore to jump in…
The media and the Republicans are Desperate for Hillary to be the Democratic candidate-and who is affiliated with so many of the polls-the networks…
Who doesn’t recall how Desperate the Republicans were for Kerry to win the Democratic Primaries?
Sure, let’s just give the Republicans what they want…
If anyone has Lousy Candidates, it’s the GOP…Ugh!

Hillary is being supported by the conservative wing of the Party and Murdoch, McAWfflie, etc.

Beware…Go Obama or Edwards…

Dr. Ralph | 6/24/2007, 5:35 pm EST

Edwards is a blood sucking leech… taking millions from insurance companies and driving the health care costs up exponentially. He is the polar opposite of Hillary who actually IS a Democrat and you fools will screw her because of your gender bias. Get that damn hillbilly trial lawyer in the White House we know we can trust him LMFAO!!!

Word | 6/24/2007, 8:27 pm EST

Edwards is a leech? Hell Cheney is the mother of all leeches and America voted for him and the village idiot twice (sort of). America LOVES leeches.

The only reason cons are prejudiced against trial lawyers is that they’ve been conned by republican propaganda: trial lawyers are one of the major contributors to the democratic party. Anyone trying to dress this up as a moral issue about the poor victim insurance companies are either lying or being manipulated. Or they’re morons. Can’t ever rule that out.

keep conning yourselves…

Dr. Ralph | 6/25/2007, 7:40 am EST

If you boys would just listen to me everything would work out fine… the Dumbocrats need Hillary and Obama on the ticket. How else can Thompson can elected?

Word | 6/26/2007, 11:14 pm EST

Thompson is another venerable leech! He’d be the first federally registered LOBBYIST to serve as commander in chief if elected. Hello Jack Abramoff. You can just hear the special interests licking their lips…

Like I said, America LOVES leeches. VOTE EDWARDS 2008!

Taz | 7/3/2007, 3:50 pm EST

Edwards will win because his campaign isn’t all about himself, unlike Obama & Hillary. Their naked ambition will turn people off, and polls show neither could win.

Edwards didn’t say terrorism is just a bumper sticker, he said Bush is using it as bumper sticker! Get it straight! Bush is a fear monger. Bush says, “we’re fighting them there to stop them from coming here” that’s the bumpersticker! Bush never explains how that’s going to stop them from coming here AGAIN. If you want to cower in fear, go hide behind Giuliani’s skirt. They want you to be scared. Americans didn’t win WWII or the cold war by being yellow.

dk2 | 8/5/2007, 2:32 pm EST

Edwards has more chance then the other Democratic candidates.

What a bunch of nonsense posted above by Tarheel 007 !

There are answers and debunks just about on everything you listed. There are just as many things positive and works that Edwards has done or more that the number on you list.

Everyone can continue to worry about Edwards – he is still greatly underestimated in the polls, so get ready for the JRE express to come buzzing by you.

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