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The Independent Republic of
Al Qaeda in Iraq?

10/17/06, 11:51 am EST

Republican Senator John Warner said yesterday that Iraq was “drifting sideways.” Make that accelerating to full speed… in reverse. The war that was sold as a way to make the world safe from terror has, it seems, made Iraq safe for terrorists.

Inexplicably buried in yesterday’s Washington Post frontpage story about escalating sectarian violence is the explosive, sickening news that Sunni insurgent groups — including Al Qaeda in Iraq — have declared an independent Islamic republic in Iraq’s lawless Anbar province:

The announcement was made by a spokesman for the Mujaheddin Shura Council, an umbrella organization of insurgent groups that includes al-Qaeda in Iraq, and aired by al-Jazeera satellite television.

WTF?! How is this not in the headline? “Al Qaeda Declares Victory, Independence in Anbar”? Of course, a declaration of something doesn’t make it so.

But the same must be said of Bush’s repeated declarations that we’re going to win this war, or that Iraq isn’t currently in a state of civil war. Also buried in the Post piece, this discouraging word:

In Washington, Anthony Cordesman, an analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said by telephone: “If you total up the number of people that are being killed, that are being wounded, that are being displaced and are being forced to leave the country, and the zones in which there is major civil conflict . . . trying to declare there isn’t a civil war borders on the absurd.”


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Comments

A Naw Knee Muss | 10/17/2006, 1:58 pm EST

Let me preface this by saying, I am not being snarky or sarcastic. I am actually asking to better understand what constitutes a civil war by definition. I also do not support the United States being there and am wavering on whether we should pull out. I’m a point where I think we should stay and clean up the mess we have made.

So…

If a civil war is defined as “A war between factions of the same country; there are five criteria for international recognition of this status: the contestants must control the territory, have a functioning government, enjoy some foreign recognition, have identifiable regular armed forces, and engage in major military operations,” then how was Iraq in a civil war before this news?

The Sunnis may have taken control of the “lawless Anbar province”, but that would not be considered having a functioning government beforehand. Certainly it does not constitute one now. Where is the international recognition? Where is the identifiable armed forces outside of Al Qaeda?

I don’t see where actually Iraqis, outside of this Sunni group, are a part of this. Don’t the majority of a territory fighting one another for control have to be involved to deem this a civil war? Is one province taken over by a militia group all it takes to declare civil war? If so, how was there one before?

Klaatu | 10/17/2006, 2:36 pm EST

If we leave, the well-funded Sunni insurgency could topple the fragile Iraqi goverment, spring Saddam and reinstall him. Remember, the Sunni minority was dominant during Saddam’s regime. What better way to repudiate the US invasion than to simply put him back in?

Rolling Stone Reader | 10/17/2006, 2:50 pm EST

OMG, did you like see My Chemical Romance on TRL yeterday. They were like so totally rad. Those guys are like soooooo hot. I can’t wait to buy the action figures.

A Naw Knee Muss | 10/17/2006, 2:51 pm EST

Klaatu – Very good point. And the planned removal of Saddam goes back to the Clinton adminstration if I understand correctly. Not that the Bush administration has done a whole lot of paying attention to plans from the earlier administrations, but it was something in place for a while.

Beelay | 10/17/2006, 3:01 pm EST

Well, it’s not surprising the Washington Post tries to hide and bury facts that don’t toe the party line.

Also, why does everyone put such importance on this conflict being recognized or not recognized as a civil war, by definition?

Does it matter? Does it change things? No.

Either way, a country is in ruins, thousands upon thousands of lives have been lost, with more killed each day. Millions of people are suffering. Lawlessness and terror are rampant.

Bush and his cronies are simply not living in reality. Either that, or they refuse to see the reality of this conflict.

A Naw Knee Muss | 10/17/2006, 3:07 pm EST

Beelay – It is important because this administration sees things only in black and white. If they saw there was a real civil war going on then they MIGHT just actually start doing something to fix things there. As it stands, they just sit on their thumbs and spend even more money and build up our government and strip away our civil liberties instead of fixing their screw ups.

Rolling Stone Reader | 10/17/2006, 3:19 pm EST

OMG, Fall Out Boy and Panic at the Disco are almost as hot as My Chemical Romance. TRL will be coming on soon and I can’t wait to watch some real talent.

TinFoilHat | 10/17/2006, 5:57 pm EST

Muss,
“..planned removal of Saddam goes back to the Clinton adminstration if I understand correctly.”

If you are referring to the letter penned by the conservative think-tank PNAC (Project for a New American Century), the suggestion was politely but emphatically rejected by the Clinton Administration. If that is the case, I believe you do misunderstand.

Jed Clampett | 10/17/2006, 6:09 pm EST

Under those guidelines there will never be a recognized civil war anywhere.

The way I see it, if there are armed individuals fighting each other and terrorizing the general population in order to impose their will by force, it’s a civil war.

Sunnis coming back to power would be unlikely, the shia’s have too much support from Iran and oil wealth. The Kurds are too well established up north to let them take over. The more likely scenario is the country being split into three zones after a protracted war of brutality.

The gov has restarted it’s anthrax vaccination campaign, doesn’t it make you wonder what they know? The syrians and Iranians have plenty of quemical weapons, get ready for a big surprise.

The military has had plans for the invasion of Iraq since the first Gulf War, they planned for nation building, necessary force, keeping the peace, protecting from looting etc. etc. All those plans were tossed away by Rummy, he felt we could go in there with 50k troops and everything would be hanky dory.

A Naw Knee Muss | 10/18/2006, 3:19 pm EST

Jed – You can see it how you want to, but that’s not how it is. The combatants actually have to be citizens of that country to make it a civil war. Otherwise it is just a war.

TinFoilHat | 10/18/2006, 8:17 pm EST

So, Muss..
Just curious: If Arnold Schwarzenegger attacked Washington with the California National Guard. Would that be a Civil War?

C Co... aka I Smell Propaganda | 10/18/2006, 8:54 pm EST

Rolling Stone Reader | 10/17/2006, 2:50 pm EST

OMG, did you like see My Chemical Romance on TRL yeterday. They were like so totally rad. Those guys are like soooooo hot. I can’t wait to buy the action figures.

10/17/2006, 3:19 pm EST

OMG, Fall Out Boy and Panic at the Disco are almost as hot as My Chemical Romance. TRL will be coming on soon and I can’t wait to watch some real talent.

——————— ———-

I think you just named everything I hate all in just 2 comments. I’m not even mad, that’s amazing.

A Naw Knee Muss | 10/18/2006, 11:18 pm EST

TinFoilHat – Yes, that would be a civil war. Schwarzenegger is the governor of California and has control over the national guard there. I’m sure that was a trick question so I await your gotcha come back.

DirtyDennis | 10/19/2006, 7:31 am EST

This discussion is a tad irrelevant. We’re discussing semantics when people are dying.

For the record, Wikipedia: “A civil war is a war in which parties within the same culture, society or nationality fight for political power or control of an area.”

A Naw Knee Muss | 10/19/2006, 9:56 am EST

Dennis – “This discussion is a tad irrelevant. We’re discussing semantics when people are dying.”

Very true. Good point. I pretty much used the same argument in another blog in regards to the Dargur government and the Janjaweed. People are calling for Bush to speak out against it when speaking out doesn’t stop the actual killing. Their response? Go to some Darfur advocacy group and donate money. *blink* The advocacy groups are going to get the government out of power?

That said, the wikipedia definition of a civil war may be correct to a degree, but it’s too simplified in my opinion. Remember it’s my opinion and I can be convinced otherwise.

DirtyDennis | 10/19/2006, 10:38 am EST

Muss,

Glad your coffee’s kickin’ in. In a few minutes, you’ll be revved up and rarin’ to go.

It’s my feeling that the whole ‘Iraqi Situation’ is SO complicated in and of itself, that we need to simplify, as much as possible, all talking points (heavy emphasis on we’re talking, they’re dying).

The original premise of this thread bears revisiting: a avowed enemy of this country, if not THE principle party in our original ‘declaration of war,’ at least second, has, along with other groups, declared themselves a republic. I suppose they’ll be holding elections soon. Dark humor aside, and discounting that it’s merely gamesmanship, mayhaps the situation is far more desperate than would could glean from four ‘major news outlets.’

I’ve been saturated with ‘news’ from Iraq and claim numbness so I haven’t been following details as closely as one should before ‘speaking,’ but that doesn’t seem to stop anyone else, so I shant either. It was/is my belief that although we couldn’t be everywhere at once we had, at least, some control over most of the country. Apparently such is not the case.

Ensuing scenarios:?: We begin bombing the area to show who’s REALLY the boss, thereby inflicting yet more civilian casualties with no perceptible benefit.
We ‘loose’ the Kurds telling them they can have anything they can hold.
We look the other way and pretend it’s not happening.

The last one would seem more historically relevant and given the publicity surrounding it, the likely option. In a corollary, General George Casey, in a press briefing, referenced the various factions as extremists. Wow, that’s a bit removed from terrorists. Not sure what that ‘signals,’ but Rumsfeld was there holding the leash. A ‘test balloon’ before the official “Cut ‘N Run.” Sorry, only the Dems do that; the Cons declare victory and leave.

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