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Four Out of Five: Iraq Is Lost

9/28/06, 8:55 am EST

Okay, you knew it was bad. But the latest Harris Interactive poll shows a stunning result: Only one out of five Americans believe that the U.S. is going to win in Iraq. Asked: “How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?”, only 20 per cent said they were “confident.” Fully 61 per cent answered: “Not confident,” and 19 per cent were “Unsure.” Also, more than half thought that Iraq would fall apart in civil war in the next six months. (Of course, most expert Iraq watchers says that Iraq is pretty much already in a civil war, with deaths at 3,000 per month and rising.)

That explains why the president is scrambling so fast to change the topic from Iraq, where he is weak, to terrorism, where he is strong. Recent polls have shown that voters who see Iraq as the No. 1 issue are against Bush by a 4 to 1 margin, while voters who think terrorism is most important support Bush by 4 to 1. Even thick-headed consultants can grasp what those numbers mean.


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Comments

Jed Clampett | 9/28/2006, 7:38 pm EST

I don’t get it, if four out of people understand that Iraq is a lost cause, how can they thing the people that bungled it so badly can do any better in fighting extremists.

Are we to believe that the only way to prosecute criminals is to suspend the constitution and the libertys we hold dear and separate us from the rest of the dictatorships.

How does the FBI and police departments ever solve any crimes without these ‘Laws’ they are trying to pass?
How long will it take for them to realize that if they can do it to foreigners, they can do it to citizens? If they pass these laws, the very first ones to be investigated under these new measures should be the members of congress. Let’s find out who is corrupted and taking money under the table. Who has been selling out our treasury for fractions of a cent on the dollar? Does it not hurt us all when our money is given away as it is being done these days?

Mike Burns | 9/29/2006, 9:08 am EST

Well, as far as news out of Iraq goes, here’s some good news/bad news that the Bushies would consider mostly bad, and thus don’t want you to hear. It’s summarized in the form of an e-mail I sent to Joseph Farah at World Net Daily:

“You are indeed correct that al-Qaeda is increasingly unpopular in Iraq these days, Joseph. It is a fact that in Anbar (a majority Sunni region) province, a Sunni tribal leader was quoted in NYT (on September 18, days before your latest editorial) as saying that 25 of 31 tribes in the province have pulled together to resist al-Qaeda.

But, it is also a fact (according to al-Hayat in London) that the proposed Sunni solution to the problem of al Qaeda includes the demand that the United States set a date for withdrawal in return for their ending their own insurgency and cooperating with an Iraqi government against al-Qaeda. And, before a final withdrawal, the Sunnis want the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Anbar, along with the largely Shi’ite army units of the “Iraqi“ army.

Another unpleasant fact is that, in a recent report made by analysts Anthony Cordesman and Nawaf Obaid, foreign fighters represent only four to ten percent of the 30,000 or so armed insurgents in Iraq. In other words, the Iraqi people fighting against the minority of foreign al-Qaeda insurgents are, themselves, Sunni insurgents who also fight against American troops and against the predominantly Shiite troops of the Iraqi army (both of whom seldom venture into Anbar these days).

In view of all this, and given the fact that this majority of home-grown Sunni insurgents (opposed to al Qaeda though they may be) is adamant about getting the US out and overwhelmingly voted “no” in the constitutional referendum (in spite of al Qaeda’s attempts to intimidate them into not voting), I’d have to walk a good country mile to believe your contention that “One of the driving forces for wanting an early departure of U.S. troops may have to do with increasing confidence in Iraqi army forces – trained by Americans.” There is plainly a zeal here to put a pro-administration spin on the story, Joseph.

This story, in reality, is not going to have a happy ending for either Osama bin Laden or George Bush.

J | 9/30/2006, 12:56 pm EST

I posted this on another forum, but I felt it was appropriate her as well.

The break up of Iraq not a good exit strategy for the US, unless you subscribe to the idea that the Bush administration and all the other Neocons do, that our real goal should be to divide and conquer almost every major country in the ME, leaving Israel as the Dominant player.

On the other hand, it may not be avoidable at this point, although a change in congress and the administration might help move us in the right direction.

Perhaps we might still have a chance as long as Israel does not make our job there even harder by continuing to exacerbate the situation in Lebanon, although it is certainly in Israels interest to try to incite as much violence as possible in order to drag us towards greaters wars (against countries that Israel’s furthest right contingent considers to be thier enemies) in the region.

Bringing in NATO and or UN forces might help to diffuse the attacks and lessen the calls for sectarian violence. Certainly, soldiers from a country other than one whose president says ” we want to draw terrorists into Iraq so that we do not have to fight them on our shores” might be viewed as somewhat more friendly and credible.

Honestly, the more I consider the outrageous nature of Bush’s statement about drawing the terrorists into Iraq so that we can fight them there instead of here, the more disgusted I am by the whole thing. It’s as though he’s painting a big red target on our soldiers inadequate body armour that says ” I am trying to draw terrorists into your country. Shoot me before I succeed”.

If there was a group of people running around America whose sole mission was to draw terrorists into America and away from their own country, what would our reaction to them be like I wonder? On the other hand, that describes AIPAC’s and the Israeli settler movements relationship with Congress and the current administration pretty well, I suppose.

J

Mike Burns | 9/30/2006, 2:42 pm EST

Yesterday, I got my voter registration updated. I’m all set to do what little I can to turn the GOP bastards out of office Nov. 7. I hope all of you do the same.

We need divided government again the worst way.

Desiderata | 10/1/2006, 1:03 pm EST

It’s pretty hard to take polls seriously. But clearly sentiment is running against our being in Iraq. Too little; too late. Pulling out without someone covering our tail would be a disaster. And who, in their right mind, would cover our tail? Were I over there, and leaving, I’d be damned scared of everyone.

You’re dead on Jed, sadly. Elsewhere I discussed why we’re in every terrorists gun sights. I won’t belabor it now suffice to say it wasn’t you nor me who put a jack boot on the necks of most of the brown-skinned peoples of the world. But we do have to take responsibility, like it or not, right or wrong. “I have seen the enemy and it is US.”

I doubt many of our R friends would agree with that position, but denial seems to be sustenance for the POH. I’m really liking POH. Play it again, Sam. Okay, that’s not what he said, but that’s how it’s remembered.

On a whole different take, remember when Ronnie and GW I crowed, pre Contra, that anyone who was afraid to take a polygraph had something to hide? Never could understand why the cowardly dems didn’t beat them over the head with that, post Contra. Opportunity missed. I bring it up ‘cause if GW II is going to usurp his constitutional powers, why not implement universal polygraph tests? And I DO mean universal. I know they’re not falible and can be beated by pros, but it sure would be fun/fodder to see the results.

Okay, while I’m wish-listing, the next time politicians vote on war, let’s let them all be first in line, and their families. If they, the politicians, can’t remember that war is the LAST resort, perhaps they need a reminder.

C Co... aka I Smell Propaganda | 10/1/2006, 3:18 pm EST

If 19% of people were “unsure”, that doesn’t make 4 of 5 people thinking the war is lost, it makes 3 of 5. Simple math. But yeah, where are all the liberals who claim that they think polls are bullshit. Oh, unless it’s a pro-Liberal poll, then it’s not bullshit. I see.

Desiderata | 10/1/2006, 6:36 pm EST

I understand that polygraphs are falible. If I gave any other impression it was poor communication on my part. I would just like to see them sweat.

Of more importance, I just read that there’s a truce between Kurds in Iraq and Turkey. I didn’t know that there was open conflict. Bad D!! Bad D!! The enmity between Turkey and those Kurds is well known, however.

What I’m wondering is, what if all out war breaks out between the two. Does the U.S. side with the country it’s occupying? I believe Turkey is a NATO country now. What would happen?

Capitalist Pig | 10/1/2006, 7:58 pm EST

Jed,

Those at gitmo are not criminals they are POW’s, and never in history has a country given POW’s criminal trials. The left wants to try them in court because they no it is not possible and would tie up the courts for years.

TinFoilHat | 10/1/2006, 10:23 pm EST

“are not criminals they are POW’s”,
Ah but if lawyers argue to give the detainees the rights that ARE offered to POWs under the Genvea Convention, then the Bushies always say “they aren’t POWs, their ‘Enemy Combatants’, a legal specification invented by Bush so that he could (legally?) give these guys NO RIGHTS. Sorry Cap, you can’t have it both ways.

tjmosa | 10/2/2006, 12:13 pm EST

Mike Burns,
There is an excellent article by James Dunnigan on the strategypage.com website site entittled, ‘The Civil War Myth.’
It might very well be the future of Iraq.
As far as the foreign militants go, AP writer David Rising had an article in which the new Al-Qaida boss in Iraq (Abu Ayyub al-Masri) admitted that they have lost over 4,000 fighters in Iraq since the beggining of the invasion. What he doesn’t say is how many were killed by Sunni’s.
It could be argued that we are bringing democracy to Iraq, the overthrow of 300 yrs of repression by 20% of the population (Sunni’s) against 80% (Kurd n Shia). It just isn’t being carried out in a western way.

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