I find it both sad and disgusting that this type of reporting has to come from a music magazine. Good work, Tim. I enjoyed your article very much.

Good article…I’d like to think we will find a way out of this mess, but the three proposed scenarios are difficult to ignore.

Wow, that is pretty spooky to hear on the futuer of the world.

If your panel is correct; it sounds like the military industral complex, the multinational oil cos and their puppets, Bush & Co, have us just where they want us which is-we will be in Iraq for the forseeable future because they can make the case, however specious, that having the US in Iraq is better than the scenarios of regional wars etc as commented by your panel. I believe we are there for many years unless a change of administration, both in the US and Iran, make it feasible to leave the region.

Canada and NATO will continue to help rebuild Afghanistan so the US can concentrate on Iraq. Iraq is not lost and the security in Bagdad is a great strategy, all we need to do is capture Bagdad and the country will fall. By the way don’t forget Israel just finished up a decent offensive last summer.

How can Al Qaeda be stronger when we have killed all of them? How can you have WWIII when we could blow the living hell out of any country? Bottom line is we need Iraq. We need it to face the evil that has spread through our ONLY PLANET PEOPLE. We have to fight because they will not listen to reason. Iraq’s who kill there own people and sleep in there beds. They scurry like rats when the big dog comes, biting at it’s feet. We will secure Iraq; it has to be done, either by us or the Iraq government.

I’m not worried about Iran, I think they will cool down, but we might have to take step back and trust someone in right. Iraq is a key to establishing a major victory and a buffer between the Middle East and the Western World. We can’t give up yet.

As long as we have leaders who deal with other countries in the “cowboy diplomatic” manner in which the current administration has operated, we will continue to be viewed as arrogant,captilistic, and self-serving. Much of the mainstream media paints Iraq as a country of illiterate people who cannot govern themselves. In interviews I have seen within the country, there should be a more regional approach to solving problems i.e. diplomacy with Iran, Syria, Egypt etc

At the least, Iraq will be in a civil war for at least a decade. The worst case of WWIII will happen if a war with Iran is started.
Either way, we have sqandered our resourses (military personnel & treasury). We have gotten a lot for our money. to the contrary, our borders and security have never been improved upon since 9/11. Who else is there to blame for this other than our elected leaders?

So true, we need to find a better way; it is almost like we are pounding our fists against a stone wall. Also, I think people don’t want the war but at the same time they want to do what’s right. What is right in this case? If we stay we only throw fuel on the fire, but if we leave we throw away all our hard work and sacrifice, not to mention lose the only leverage we have in Iraq.

WWIII sounds good.

Great panel good article. I like Senator Obamas plan to pull out of Iraq but keep enough in the region to respond if needed. We should arm the Kurds and not allow genocide against either of the 3 parties.

“An expert panel convened by ROLLING STONE…”

Because you know what’s going to happen…

I could come up with a panel of college professors that say the Holocaust never happened. This also, proves nothing.

If you’re going to make these claims on possible scenarios, at least be honest and say it comes from your personal liberal opinion. Don’t hide behind words like “expert panel” (more like hand-picked). It’s disingenuous.

Propaganda sniffer,

Typical con: shoot the messenger. Dude when you get to college that tactic ain’t gonna work unless you can legitimately destroy the credibility of each panelist. You can’t. Go get laid dude. It’ll help you out.

WINTESS THE ANBAR SALVATION COUNCIL

30 of 36 Sunni Tribes in Anbar have turned on al Qaida and joined the Shi’ite led govt. Especially Sheik Sattar.

The are other reasons for a CAUTIOUS optimism at this time.

Rolling Stone has assembled a group of pessimists and folks that have a conflict of interest in the situation.

The new general in charge has a new plan. Give the man a chance.

Douglas Mcarthur, George Patton, FDR, Winston Churchill, Dwight Eisenhower: These men are turning over in their graves about the talk here.

The guy from the Carter admin with the unpronouncable name is a joke. That guy failed to deal with the Shah properly, and was screwing up Afghanistan from the start of the Soviet invasion also. “put the guns into anybody’s hands” [Milton Beard, CIA station chief]. Gulbadien Hekmatiyar especially. The Discovery Times Channel [That's the New York Times] has an hour long special including a bunch of interviews.

The guy is covering his own ass in front of an audience that odds are would be too young to know his role.

C Co… aka I smell Propaganda-
You’re the one who smells of propaganda. I think Tim is pretty straightforward about which side he’s on in all of this.

Winning the war was easy. When Saddam’s government fell, we should have gone home and told the Iraqis to play nice with us from now on. It is this stupid imperialist adventure-trying to install a democracy by force in a country without the cultural underpinnings to support it-that will fail.

I’m ashamed to admit that i learned so much from this article. …I’m scared.

why dont people wise up and just say that nobody knows what the hell is going to happen, instead of talking out their asses offering doomsday predictions–its WAR, you play it as you go. No war plan in history has ever held up in actual battle, not one, there are always unforseen snags

heres a scenario:

iraq will eventually level out, ala France in the early 1800 after their revolution, or more recently, Nicaragua in the late 1980s and

iran wont take over the middle east (the saudis have already begun quietly negotiating with other gulf states to prevent this)

and iraq will either end up like Nicaragua, where one side simply out kills the other into submission, or it will split up ala yugoslavia

its going to be tough, but there is a way out of the malaise other than counting down to doomsday

As the world’s last true Superpower (US) we have an obligation to bomb any country we damn please. You see Iraq’s insurgence will face the great explosion of the MOAB. Also, think about all the experience, technology and skill we are gaining from this. Once again the US is on the forefront of innovation, technology and military power.

An obligation to bomb? That’s ridiculous.

this war is about making a buck for military crooks like cheney and gang, and the american soldier is the pawn to help make this buck. Read ” War is a Racket by General S. Butler………..Henry Kissinger who was quoted in the book, “Kiss the Boys Goodbye” stated, “Military men are just dumb stupid animals to be used as pawns in foreign policy.

this war and other wars are about money…….and what will happen in the middle east is based on making a buck…….

Just putting this out there: if we go to war with Iran, we’re fucked. I don’t mean we-all-get-drafted fucked, I mean the end of the USA fucked. Iran is completely Shiite, and not afflicted by the level of dissidence we see in Iraq. We’ll have next to no allies if we invade — both in and outside Iran.

Of course, we could nuke the shit out of them, but there’s oil there so we wouldn’t do that.

People, not just Americans, are fucking stupid (myself included, but I wish I was as woefully ignorant as most everyone else). If we invade Iran, I move to Canada.

I don’t care what Alex Smith has investigated, it is no excuse to attack our country. It is no excuse to blow the living shit out of your own streets and people with explosives strapped to you nuts. These guys are sick man; they have to be stopped like the plague. (But it is interesting to see the corruption, lies and politics we are all faced with today with our government)

Oh, I feel the need to correct one of their “expert” panelists, “because of the king’s oppression of Islamists.”
“Islamists” isn’t a word Mr. Scheuer. The word you wanted to use was Moslem, a practitioner of Islam. It may be petty semantics, but petty semantics are at the root of the debacle between Sunni and Shiite Moslems.

“It’s all over now baby blue.” The Jesus Cult has gotten what they wanted, a split in the fastest growing religion. The oil companies got theirs. I just want to know where the American political class is going to move to and where they are going to put their money.

The USA made a complete mess of things. The Kurds would never agree to be part of any government for too long. Eventually they would want to go their own way. When that time comes the USA would have to decide if to fight them or let them leave. The Shites would see the Kurds going away to form their own country and would want to do the same. Right now the Kurds are being the smartest of the whole bunch. They are laying low biding their time. The real problem here is Turkey. They would move in and annex a good chunk of the northern part of Iraq. Again, the USA and this time NATO would have to decide if they want to fight Turkey. So you see what a mess the USA made. Oh! the one winner in all of this is Israel. There is not another Arab country would threaten to take them on. Iran is the last one on that list and the USA would take them down a notch soon. When that is done then the USA would leave Iraq.

Islamist is most definitely a word, and it definitely does not mean Moslem. Go look it up.

The civil war that will occur in Iraq when we leave regardless of when that is was pre-determined in 1919 by the then British foreign minister, Winston Churchill and the then French foreign minister. They ignored Lawerence’s advice on how to set up provinces in the middle east and set it up for their convenience. Iraq is not now nor will it probably ever be a country. The civil war will last for many years and will wind up in some sort of partition. All the US did by invading Iraq was to speed up the time when the civil war would occur. We need to get out now.

People go on about fighting evil – but why? Just because they have a different view of te world dosn’t make them evil.
It is really since the second world war that we changed our view of how to treat people that we westoners changed – even then there are religions tolerated by the weston civilizations that still supress their women.
As to 9/11 this stems from the way that the CIA operated and then pulled out leaving them in the lurch – even then it was nothing to do with Iraq the people came from Israel
As to Oil if you listened to Bush speach from Brazil he has now acknowledged that Biofuels are the next big thing
If the coalition pulled from Iraq it is most likey that they would fight between themselves for the next 20 years until one is the victor.
The biggest problems facing the world is extremist religion,energy and water

If America decides to use nukes on Iran that would increase tensions around the world and possibly wake china to act – not a good thing

What did you expect? From top to bottom this is the the most incompetent and corrupt administration in US history. Furthermore, what good can be said about the ignorant American electorate who voted for these clowns? These greedy right wing religious goons were appointed once then “re-elected” even after the signs of what was being done were clear. Iraqis were a lot better off under Saddam Hussein.

its simple this stupid country called the US thinks it can bully anyone around, then we start a civil war in counrty we have no buisness being in. so the worst case senario is we get bombed by iran and nobody helps us

and guess what we deserve it for not listing to anybody we deserve every last bit of the crap thats gonna hit this counrty the white house needs to pull its head out of its ass and bring the troops home not send more ya retards

Best Case Scenario: US pulls out quickly , Kurds submit to Shai control. Criminal proceedings brought against Bush and Blair. Some reputation can be restored and Iraq is saved a blood bath.

Most Likely Scenario: Sunni Shai pact to control the north and supress the kurds. Jordan falls. Most oil sales will go to the Chinnese and Russians.

Worst-Case Scenario: World war three. Death poverty and suffering for millions

Among the simple-minded mistakes made early by the Bush administration was creation of the current Iraqi government instead of imposing military rule by the US Army with a carefully managed transition to civil control as was done successfully in post-WWII Germany and Japan.

Historically, insurgencies are not defeated by the tactics we are willing to employ, but by using brute force and collective punishments to out-terrorize the terrorists.

Since we’re unwilling or unable to step up to either of these two proven strategies, our defeat and withdrawal is only a matter of timing. Immediate withdrawal, letting the Iraqis sort it out themselves, is the most rational alternative, given the circumstances. Because of the egoism of the political players involved, this won’t happen and we will continue to be entertained by the resulting mindless chaos and death.

We are paying for the ego the U.S. has shown from the age of the Dulles brothers chopping up the world half a century ago to the blind fascism of George Bush and his corporate greed thugs. These monsters have placed America in the most horrific situation it has ever been in. If we stay, we are imperialists who must be stopped at all costs, including WWIII. If we leave, the likelihood of all out religious civil war spreading throughout the mideast is huge, which could easily result in WWIII. All answers are wrong answers. It is very probable the United States has entered a period of permanent decline, led not by outside forces, but by the elite at the top of the economic and political classes. We may well all be living our worst nightmares in the very near future. Everyone who had a hand in this fiasco, regardless of political party, should be tried for high treason.

I wrote in 2000 that it would take at least 50 years to undo the damage this idiot was about to do to the country. I have never been more wrong in my life. It is simply impossible to undo the damage done by these fucking idiots. The world has forever been doomed to the chaos, destruction, death, and carnage that these morons have caused.

The United States will survive this. We’ve survived worse. The real question is, will we learn from our mistake this time?

Could your panel have been any more biased? All of these people have always opposed the war, hate Bush and the Republicans, and want us to leave. So is it any surprise they are all gloom and doom? Next time, try a more even panel with some opponents and some supporters, that way we won’t just be fed one-sided partisan BS.

Worldly Mother:

You claim, “Israel has the same problem in Palestine and Lebanon” being a “foreign invader”

Actually, it’s Hezbollah that is the foreign Invader in Lebanon set up by Ali Reza Asghari of Iran who recently defected to the west [SCORE].

Hezbollah may be made up of lebanese [mostly], but they are a tool of foreign oppression [Iran], and the Revolutionary Gaurd are all over lebanon.

As well, It is the “Palestinians” [a term of fallacy in-and-of itself] who have chosen fascism instead of the many attempts at peace.

TO CLAIM JEWS ARE FORGEIGN INVADERS, IN JUDEA… IS AN ARROGANCE OF IGNORANCE THAT SHOULD CAUSE YOU PAUSE. and to go back to school for a little while.

Witness the city of Hebron, where Jews had lived for 3000 years straight until the Arab riots of 1929 butchered 67 human beings [Jews], and then the british summarily removed the rest.

Speaking of foreigners unwelcome, witness the Anbar Salvation Council.

30 of 36 Sunni tribes of Anbar turn on al Qaida and the foreign Jihadis to join the Shi’ite led govt. Less than a year ago they were fighting with al Qaida, but they have tired of the senseless murdering of civillians.

Remember Sheik Sattar if you will, but there are plenty of others. There are also plenty of other reasons for CAUTIOUS optimism in Iraq.

This is the time to push this to a more stable situation, and root out trouble makers to leave behind a relatively stable democracy.

Yep, that Israel example doesn’t quite cut it, Worldly Mother. At least not as far as Palestine goes. Seeing as Jews were living in that area well before Islam even existed, the idea that Muslims somehow have a claim to the region doesn’t make sense.

You make it all seem so distant…over there stuff. What it means here is we will need more troops and funds to protect our interests so I see the draft being reinstated. Gas at the pump over $5/gl. Real ID creating a police state. A huge increase in crime, poverty, unemployment and natural disasters as we refuse to recognize and face the real emergency of finding alternative energy and deal with global warming. We are an oil based society and as we slowly run out of oil our society will slowly erode due to our denial and refusal to abandon dependence on this source of energy and to reverse the effects of humans on climate change. Some of us still haven’t learned that every war since WWII has been a war for profit and oil. We are not fighting terrorism, we are enabling it. Just make it law that no profits can be made during war times and there will be no more wars for us. Exxon/Mobile–$39 Billion dollars profit for ‘06 and that’s just one corp. Believing that war rhetoric will only get your boy killed. Only the people care about what’s right not war profiteers. Until we dismantle our war machine then the wars will last forever. Our war machine cost 20X more than any other country. It is perpetuated by fear not reason. Iraq lasting longer than WWII for the millions each day and everyone afraid to get out. Perpetuated by fear.

The US is so far off course now, I don’t know if things can be righted in time to save this country. Our oil addiction looks more and more like our ultimate downfall.

President Carter had the right idea when he tried to wean this country off fossil fuels. Then came Reagan, who was little more than a trojan horse for that favorite Big Oil and Military-Industrial Complex fiend, George Herbert Walker Bush.

Bush Sr. did everything in his power to help the Oil companies get their hands on Saudi Arabian oil fields, at the expense of this country’s future, leaving the US at the mercy of the world’s most volatile region. Everything foreign-policy related since 1980 has been about keeping that oil spigot in the middle east running. It is literally keeping our lights on, which is why we have our military there now.

The sad truth is, it would only take a single strike at the Saudi reserves to knock the largest source of our oil supply offline and throw us into a major energy crisis and a depression worse than the 1930s. What’s even more sad is that it need not be this way at all.

A Manahattan Project for total energy independence would be the greatest step towards national security the US could ever take. But to get there at this point, you will have to first drive out of power and crush the NeoFascists — Cheney, Rumsfeld, the Bush Crime Family, Wolfowitz, Abrams, Perle, the Oil Companies, the Military-Industrial complex, so-called “holy men” like Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, and every other interest entrenched in mantaining this self-serving status quo of corruption, so much corruption, deception and murderous greed.

Call it a hunch, but I think that we are in for some very hard times as harsh realities begin to present themselves over the next five years. The US has collectively made some very costly, ill-informed choices about its’ future, and now the future is here, and the bills for those choices are coming due.

These desert dwellers have been killing each other since they first learned how to throw rocks. Nothing we do will change their hatred. Best case scenario: Occupied oil fields forever. Maybe Yoko can write a song about it.

Dr. Ralph

well, we see Gen. McPeak’s stupid one has weighed in.

having read some of the comments, make that stupid ones.

Impeach the son of a Bush!

Dr. Ralph,

If there’s nothing we could ever do about their hatred, why did we go in there and try to nation-build in the first place?

How interesting that the Grim Truths did not include any negative effect upon the continental US. Don’t you think that that should be a concern, expecially when much of the article predicts new alliances and expanded warfare?

The entire Bush cabnet and any neocons who were directly involved need to be put in prison! They have forced America down a very dangerous road with their lies, stupidity and contempt for the Constitution and the people of the world.

Our only chance to regain any respect in the world is to put these criminals behind bars.

Anonymous, nice to know you were looking for me! Lithe what part of “the world’s largest oil reserves” don’t you understand? Nation-build is politicalspeak for rape, pillage, and deploy troops as near as possible to the aforementioned crude.

Dr. Ralph, I see that in your apparent infantile bloodlust and greed, you have forgotten your history.

All empires that overreach are forced to pull back or collapse inward onto themselves sooner or later, either due to internal corruption or because the collective costs for maintaining empire become way too expensive. This has been true in one form or another, from Ancient Rome to Great Britain today.

The problem with the US, however, is that it is both internally corrupt and has overreached into a war that it cannot continue to afford without positive results that will never come. Iraq has proved beyond any shadow of a doubt the limits of US power. The US cannot salvage the catastrophe that is has turned Iraq into, and is literally going bankrupt to still try and gratify the insatiable greed and even bloodlust of the NeoCons and CorporoFascist extremists who currently run the US government.

We will never control the world’s oil largest oil reserves. We need to retreat and do what we should have done 30 years ago: Develop alternative energy like there’s no tomorrow, and maybe we will still see one.

Iraq is a red herring. The real battle bush is fighting is to lock down power in the US. Anything that happens in the middle east is just a gift to the american taliban. Purchase guns and ammo and a good food supply. We are only one event from total chaos in the US of A. The Democrats are too stupid and cowardly to put up the good fight and the GOP is a pack of totalitarian criminals. The best case scenario is that the US purges the greedy theocrats and some semblence of democracy and liberty survives in north america. The Republic is dead, long live the Republic.

Cracker Jack:

The Alternatives to Oil are almost here. There should not be a pull back just for that. Patton, Eisenhower,FDR, Churchill… they are turning over in their collective graves hearing the discussion here. We can and should be able to fight on multiple fronts at the same time. and have a “Manhattan Project” at home to finalize the solution to the oil problem.

Whether its Silicon Valley with the Tesla electric roadster, or the Hydrogen Storage solution found at the Weizman Institute in Israel that uses Zinc-Oxide Powder to store the hydrogen for transport = THE SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON.

To claim that this is all some “Neo-Con” consipiracy is a rather infintile in-and-of itself. See the comments by Hillary Clinton, John Rockefellar, and a host of other democrats with basicly the same intel as Bush.

You can go back to the ’90s to cite Saddams ties to al Qaida with the 1998 Embassy Bombers indictment, or the justification for the clinton admin strike on the al-Shifa plant in Sudan. All involved stand by the intel for that strike – see especially William Cohens testimony to the 9-11 commission. Also see article called Who Is Ramzi Yusef by Laurie Mylroie – this draws a connection to Saddam and the 1993 WTC bombing. Also see Mylroie’s book, Saddam Hussein’s Unfinished War Against America. This lays out some of Saddam’s other ties to terrorist.

Also see Ken Timmerman’s article: Politicizing Intelligence yet again for a look at how the Democrats have “cherry-picked” their use of intelligence to the detriment of our safety.

Now in Iraq it’s other foreigners that are unwelcome. Once again witness the Anbar Salvation Council.

30 of 36 Sunni tribes of Anbar turn on al Qaida and the foreign Jihadis to join the Shi’ite led govt. Less than a year ago they were fighting with al Qaida, but they have tired of the senseless murdering of civillians.

Remember Sheik Sattar if you will, but there are plenty of others. There are also plenty of other reasons for CAUTIOUS optimism in Iraq.

This is the time to push this to a more stable situation, and root out trouble makers to leave behind a relatively stable democracy

Gary Jacobs = polyanna

borderdenizen:

Pollyanna = always tries to find something to be glad about in every situation

No, I am a realist, and an avid reader, traveler, and much much more. You might say I am worldly folk.

I do like to find solutions to problems. One of them happens to be the de-Nazification program the Muslim world escaped after WWII. Something I am sad to say that the US, and the west in general are not prepared for, as a practical matter.

Between the Vichy govt.s in N. Africa, Syria , Lebanon, etc.. and Yasser Arafat’s Proxy Nazi uncle Haj Amin Al-Husseini – THERE ARE YOUR REAL FASCISTS.

it’s time to finish a 60+ year old job.

There are plenty of things to complain about with this administration without spastic doomsday scenarios of “American taliban” running our country into a theocracy with all that implies: women wearing bee-keeper outfits, dhimmi contracts in effect, and something like the Pact of Omar, or Sharia law ruling the land. No Music, TV, Dancing etc… If that crap were really the case, would Michael Moore, Jimmy Carter, or any other america hating knee-jerks still be alive?

You have made quite the obsurd comparrisons.

“Canada and NATO will continue to help rebuild Afghanistan so the US can concentrate on Iraq. Iraq is not lost and the security in Bagdad is a great strategy, all we need to do is capture Bagdad and the country will fall. By the way don’t forget Israel just finished up a decent offensive last summer.”
Israel lost dozens of tanks & was stopped right after it crossed the border. Wait for the spring offensive of the Taliban.

Sorry, the smug is getting too thick in here. My only point was that anything that happens over there is threatening to our civil and personal liberties. And that we are stuck with the consequences, probably all bad and that fear is real. Damn, I forgot to keep it simple.

I think we will see a nuclear bomb used in the next ten years. The arms race is back on in spakdes thanks to us and we can no longer contain it. Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we may all be living in a nuclear winter. Hurray for our side.

Gary Jacobs = my new best friend:)

Great article, but not mentioned no the 1000 ton Elephant – OIL.

What’s gonna happen to the prices given these scenarios?

Out here in California Prices are already above $3.00/ gallon.

All of the scenarios suggest higher prices.

Thank God for GJ and those who actually have perspective.

Dan, the the price of oil has little or nothing to do with its availability–contrary to all of the doomsday prophets on here, we are not running out of oil, far from it

where we are taxed is refinement capability. the US has not built any new refineries since the late 70s, and on top of that there is no single standard gasoline for the entire US. each state, or region, has their own standards on what “environmentally safe” additives must be in their gas

meaning, that instead of a uniform gas price, it raises every time some state has to add something to it…
speculation(or overspeculation) on the world market is also part of it

as for the middle east, we were going to have to deal with the problem there sooner or later, bush simply made it a case of sooner…they dont like us for a myriad of reasons, and to them its a mindset of “us or them”…and unfortunately i dont think many people in the US have the stomach, or the capacity to endure a “total war” of cultures

it is not to late to change the outcome of iraq. we have stuffed up but we can still try to fix our mistake……. to some extent anyway.

The only thing Positive about the news events in Iraq(current and in the future), will be the way the media is forced/bribed to Present it to the Press…

And, whoever said, “Fascism is in the MiddleEast-not here” is abundantly Blind…

The media,the Current White House occupants, Corporate Control, the Current Republican far-right politicians have all been giving us a terrific example of the Ugly word-Fascism…

The rights that have been “traded” for “war on terrorism” is another red flag that All Is Not As It Should Be here in our once great USA…

The Bush-Fascists, have been eating away at our Democracy until it is beginning to resemble pre-war Germany with more horrors still to be added…

Fear Rules The Day-something that is very far from anything truly spiritual or intellectual…

The current Regime is doing its best to incite Fear and Panic…(The War in Iraq was born on the F/P Basis).

The Lies and False Info provided by Bush/Cheney prior to their “Attack on Iraq”, add to the Fear Atmosphere…

They are doing the same Con job priming Iran as the newest Bush-Villain-setting it up, setting up the American people(The Supreme Naives-if they still put any stock in Bush’s policies and “plans”…)

The doomsday scenarios are ridiculous. As much as I respect and admire many of the panel members,they are wrong.
If the Americans leave the violence will decrease immediately and more-so as time goes on.
The majority Shiites, with Iran’s intervention, will control the country in either war, theocracy or democracy.
They will control the oil $ and government, as they should according to their numbers.
The idea of a minority Sunni domination (Bush & Saudi dream of the days of Saddam) is out the window as it already is.
The US military has been ineffective since the day they invaded. They are nothing but targets and a common enemy excuse.
The parties will have to come to terms, and will be more willing without the presence of infidels.

As for oil prices. Hey its their oil. They can charge what they want. Nationalize the oil corporations in America and let the government run it instead of avaricious blackmailing American businessmen if you are concerned about oil costs to Americans.
Don’t give us this crap that because the American oil cartel used the people’s military to invaded countries and try to steal oil rights etc….and failed…that they should be rewarded paid handsomely because of the situation their failure created. They should be punished by being dissolved. The American should receive justice by making the oil business non-profit. The Department of Oil & Gas should replace the Dept. of Homeland Security.

I think that it won’t be WWIII. I think that Iraq will be a mess, and one that is going to be far,far worse than the Balkans. I do not think, unless the neocon hawks in the Bush Administration are either completely nuts, or VERY desperate (and I think that it will be the latter case) it will flare up into a US-Iran war. (For those who are not in the know, Turkey has made several threatening statements regarding what, for the sake of discussion, I will term Iraqi Kurdestan. Simply put, Turkey has threatened to invade Iraqi Kurdestan if it becomes virtually independent. An incusrion by Turkey {nominally Sunni} will spark intervention by Shia Iran.)

I do not think that the US will have the capacity to maintain forces in Iraq or the region. There are several reasons for this, not least the expens of refitting the US Army and Air Force after this expedition. Several of us outside the US are expecting either severe cutbacks, or, if the US Government attempts to keep its current military without a commensurate increase in revenue (eg eliminate the Bush tax cuts) the US COULD collapse, something which will not be good for the planet.

For those who may question this assessment, I point you in the direction of the Late Roman Empire, where many of the same issues of what has been termed “Imperial Overstretch” that are now occurring vis-a-vis the US happened.

If a Republican or Hillary were to win, it would mean growing war for at least 15 years. (A nut like Kucinich would be even worse.) The chances are high of a broader war involving the Kurds, hence Turkey, Iran (via supply-lines, hot-pursuit), Saudi Arabia (including increased insurgent activity there), and Syria. Recall Josh Marshall’s article in 2002, “Middle East caos is what the neo-cons want.” Fanning the flames of violent divisions is an age-old tactic. It is sickening that Cheney/Rumsfeld/Perle et al. led us into this. They should all be tried for treason.

Great article!

I would beware of the now-familiar argument that the Middle East will explode if the U.S. military pulls out of Iraq. To my middle-aged ears, this sounds all too much like the old Vietnam “domino theory” — slightly redecorated for a different war.

The world has become red.

Interestingly, each of your experts treated the three “scenarios” as if they were mutually exclusive. What I think is likely to happen is that your second and third scenarios will bleed into one another. If you think that President Bush is going to leave office in January 2009 with his major legacy being an Iraq in chaos and Iran the dominant power in the Middle East, you’ve got another think coming. US policy – the bitter fruit of decades of militarism and overweening American self-regard – is obviously heading straight towards an attack against Iran. Never mind the obvious anti-Iranian propaganda tales being bruited about in the news (I find the press blathering that Iran is our enemy because it is supplying both the Shiite Iraqi rebellion and Hezbollah with weapons absolutely hilarious – where do Americans think Israel got the weapons which it used against Lebanon in Summer 2006? That’s right folks – from the US!), just pay attention to the massive troop movements across the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf? Most Americans think that staging a major military operation is akin to ordering a cheeseburger – instant service. This is of course not so. The run-up the the Iraq war in the spring of 2003 was preceded by months of troop deployments to safe bases in the US-dominated puppet states in the region around Arabia. In other words, US forces are being moved in to strike. I believe that ANY attack made by the US against Iran – no matter what the ostensible reason for the assault – WILL be the match which will finally set the entire region aflame, and moreover, provoke an economic catastrophe the likes of which has not been seen since 1929, as the rest of the world finally rises in revulsion against the American boot. At this point, I long for the attack on Iran to begin – and the sooner the better – so American hubris can finally be brought low by nemesis. Sooner or later, the US will be forced out of the Middle East – grandiose US-embassy in Baghdad notwithstanding – for the simple reason that the entire region is ripe for change, and that change will only be brought about by a major war. Iraq – a conflict which from the US POV has already lasted longer than our involvement in World War II – was just a prelude. Hold on to your hats, fellas – the last four years have been awful, but just you wait – it can only get worse.

Excellent article with view points from men of considerable experience. I was, however, struck by the absence of any reference to two countries in the area of critical concern.

On the one hand there is the matter of Pakistan, a nuclear power in the hands of a government every bit as at risk as that of Jordan, perhaps more so. While it can be argued that Musharaf is a rational actor, those who would come to power in a coup might not be so rational.

But the 500 lb gorilla is China. One view of the neo-con strategy is that the focus is really more about the emerging economic and military power of China and the strategic access and positioning that hegemony in the Middle East and Central Asia provides. In that context, the changes made in 2002 to the US Nuclear Puster Review are rather sobering. Under the ruberic of “bunker busters” and tactical nuclear weapons, the Nuclear “no first strike” doctrine was revised. In the minds of the “crazies in the basement”, as the lead neo-cons have been described, is there an agenda having to do with demonstration of nuclear resolve to hold China at bay? This is a topic I have not seen properly examined or explored. Though the public rationale for the nuclear policy shift had to do with the ability to strike at hardened targets, one should keep in mind the observation of J P Morgan who observed that men always have two reasons for their actions, “a good one and the real one”.

The Iraq war is about convenient truths and the political involvement of the US in other countries, including supplying arms and money to Saddam to help fight the Iraq-Iran war. It is naive and irresponsible of the citizens of the US and its government to believe they can just withdraw from Iraq, no harm done. This is going to be a conflict to last many years, another Cold War.

It was said that this would be America’s century and it is turning out that way. I believed the President, as I am sure we all did when he said it was necessary to invade Iraq. Maybe he was right, maybe not but the tables have turned, with other governments sticking their noses in and taking sides and the US is totally boxed in, all alone.

Mike- I think you’re absolutely right. This is the next cold war. Exactly what these neo-con bastards wanted all along.

Emplace vats of flammable liquid along our coasts and borders and be prepared to pour and ignite on short notice. And this time, no bigass contract for Haliburton!

As far as the US is concerned, the Middle East will pale by comparison to the Mexican “problem”. They are going to reclaim their stolen lands. The revenge of Montezuma has not occurred yet.

Because we can’t invade Iran, or we will? What the hell is going to happen? My God…

Bad luck follows George W. Bush like shadow. Its seems the world has become unhinged since he and his Band of Fools crept into the Oval office. Stumbling from one disaster to another they have set in motion events whose cost in blood and treasure is beyond measure. Stranger still that the rise and fall of America should coincide with the rule of two King George’s, one bad and the other quite mad.

Bad luck follows George W. Bush like a shadow. Its seems the world has become unhinged since he and his Band of Fools crept into the Oval office. Stumbling from one disaster to another they have set in motion events whose cost in blood and treasure is beyond measure. Stranger still that the rise and fall of America should coincide with the rule of two King George’s, one bad and the other quite mad.

Was it their entire fault since we stood behind him for the blood of those who knocked our buildings down? Now we are stuck in Iraq, in the middle of an all out blood feud. This mission is over, I like the idea of the Dems, withdraw by 08.

Mike – Not to confuse the issue with facts, but America was not attacked by Iraq. Rather, 9/11 was the work of extremist Saudi elements, something that seems to have been willingly overlooked by an administration that more concerned with pushing its agenda and settling scores that pursuing the guilty beyond the mountains of Tora Bora. It is equally tragic that even though more than 3,000 souls lost their lives on 9/11 no one in the federal government ever lost their job. How absurd.

The depressing thing here is that the so-called conservatives in this forum aren’t actually dealing with facts, they are just attacking the panel as well as others in the forum for not having enough blind-faith in Bush’s end-game. I suppose the end of the insurgency is still right around the corner too. Are you really sure Bush has and end game?

Bush and Chenney are bad strategists and leaders. Their terrible judgment has led this country into an awful mess, but they are expert politicians. This war has been expertly spun by the right-wing echo chamber as the big answer to all our problems, but that notion only hold water if you willfully ignore most of the facts and take the rest of them out of context.

To any “conservatives” out there… please articulate the strategy for winning the war in Iraq. Please define “victory.” And please explain how our involvement in Iraq has made us safer. Why don’t you share some insight rather than just attacking those of us who do so.

This isn’t about playing politics and taking petty pot-shots at people who disagree with you. This is war and you don’t win war by spinning it, closing you mind to uncomfortable facts, or by spouting empty, patriotic-sounding pronouncements about faith and perseverance. This is about people dying and we owe it to those people and to America to keep our eyes open.

we went to iraq to overthrow a dictator who was allowing terrorist groups like alqeada to operate under his nose. The Clinton administration knew about the assembling of these groups and the direct threat it had on americans. clinton did nothing and left the dirty work to Bush who was forced to make an executive decision on what abd where to go. we have already (theoretically) won the war. We invaded and overthrew saddam. All we are doing now is holding the land until the iraqis establish a government. it took us about 10 years to completely get our constitution in motion and hopefully the iraqis will be able to do it faster. it doesn’t have to end in any of those ways as long as we ALL are supportive of our government and our soldiers overseas. Frankly, RS you were never a trusted and respected NEWS magazine. And with this article, i can see why.

Maybe there’s some hope–if the US gets out and the UN gets in–if some sort of advisory counsel made up of representitives of area countries of all viewpoints could be formed–if Iraqi religious leaders of all persuasions would get involved–if a set of goals could be defined to which all parties could agree (like “stop the killing”)–if we could find political leaders that all sides respect. Well, I can dream, can’t I?

Namath, we all support the troops.

Saddam was not involved with al Qaeda. That is a fact and as such is easily provable… although there is a whole lot of misinformation floating around these days. In fact, the only ways you could see a link between Saddam and al Qaeda is to not know who these people are and what they believe or to willfully ignore that information. You have to know your enemy in order to defeat him.

Bush Sr. left Saddam in power on purpose to prevent Iran from establishing a sphere of influence in Iraq. That’s the rationale Bush Sr. gave the American public and guess what, it makes sense. Much of the right-wing spent the decade of the 90s second guessing Bush Sr.’s sound judgment on that count and inexplicably pushing for a 2nd Iraq war. Clinton continued Bush Sr.’s policies. He didn’t ignore al Qaeda at all. Al Qaeda and Iraq were not linked. In fact, bin Laden offered the Saudi government troops to help defeat Saddam in August 1990. Since bin Laden is back in command of al Qaeda today and no longer fearing for his life, I wonder how invading Iraq made us any safer. Going after bin Laden would have been a more logical idea.

Having even a surface understanding of the middle east would quickly disabuse you of the notion that Iraq will form a government and get it’s act together without a civil war or a dictatorship. Lebanon hasn’t managed to do in 35 years what you’re hoping Iraq will do while we keep troops there. Saddam was the natural result of ~60 years of instability starting in 1920 with the country’s founding and ending in 1979 with Saddam’s seizure of power. In fact, the Arab part of the middle east has been under foreign domination for the last 1,000 years because of its inability to stabilize itself. If democracy and stability were as easy as Bush makes them sound, Iraq surely would have achieved both without needing our help. A nation’s leadership is often reflective of the nation itself. The Iraqi’s are an intelligent people, but their culture is not equipped to sustain a stable democracy.

To put it another way, if all we need to do to stabilize Iraq is keep the troops there and provide security, then why are things getting worse after 5 years of us doing exactly that?

Finally, it’s important to remember this… Arabs hate the West. They see Western Civilization as their enemy and have seen it that way for over 1,000 years. Knowing that, how could an American (i.e. Western) occupation of their land do anything other than make them angry? Do you really think Americans would tolerate an Arab occupation of our land?

Yep, it’s at least going to be very unsettled for a very long time — not only in the middle east, but surely in the rest of the world as well.
The fighting and horrors will continue throughout the middle east for the foreseeable future. But in the meantime, the rest of the world is going to change substantially.

The American Empire is imploding — just as the Roman powers vacated Rome and moved to the more pleasant Ravenna, the Multinationals are leaving the U.S. (so long big apple) and heading to Dubai. Just leaving a few women behind as caretakers in the European and American capitals.

The great Eastern capital will be either Beijing, or Singapore, depending on the outcomes of the ‘influenza’ epidemics generated in Southern China and the pharmacological research for treatments and vaccines in Singapore.

North American and europe may revert to ‘muscle power’ based societies. Travel will decrease to almost nothing. People will have to stay home to stay well; the U.S. will make another one of its historical turns inward; it will become increasingly xenophobic. A replay of the 1930’s.

It may be encouraged to accept people from Mexico and Canada, due to the shared borders and work ethics of the people involved, but it is likely that it will be increasingly difficult for others to enter the U.S.

Increased poverty in the U.S. will lead to decreased government services, competition for resources, assistance to education, making it a generally less attractive place to live for everybody.

The results of unregulated pollution and genetic experimentation is going to come home to roost.

The U.S. Government won’t be able to pay much to police and the military; since the globalistas (See Dubai, Beijing,Singapore) will have all the money, they will be able to hire away all the mercenaries they can find.

With decreased fossil fuel consumption, global warming will not go away — the affects of tropical diseases, like malaria, chikengunya, dengue fever, will increase, and there will be no public health defense to prevent the spread of new strains of TB, e.coli, and so on.

One side effect of losing fossil fuels will be much higher costs for fertilizers, as well as ingredients for all those neat sanitizing cleansers and soaps we all use. Poor Proctor and Gamble will have to go back to using rendered animal fats — it they can keep them from being used for fuel and light!

Some cities will remain organized and well managed, but it will be very much a ‘bladerunner’ future in much of the hinterland.

Just as Europe and the U.S. exploited the world for chocolate, coffee, bananas, spices, the western peoples will be exploited by the global corporations — huge amounts of the best beef will be shipped arond the globe from Denver; Fine California wines will compete at the tables in Dubai with Australian and Chilean vintages. East coast lobster will be a thing of the past, as the flooding of NYC will release all kinds of pesticides and poisons and pollutants into the fisheries.

Maybe the ones that die suddenly in the Middle East will be the lucky ones.

P.S.

Rolling Stone has a long and fabled history of reporting news. In fact, they’ve been doing it a lot longer than Fox News has.

Bush with Iraq is like the dog that finally caught the car. Now that you’ve got it, it’s not what you thought it was. What are you going to do with it.

Trying to put Iraq back together is like using masking tape to repair the hornet nest you just bashed with a bat.

Bush has it completely and entirely selfishly and narcissistically “Fucked It Into A Cocked Hat !”. Sadly, neither the “panel” of desk dwellers nor the bystanders (writing on this blog) claim any – even a particle – of faith in the human spirit of those Iraqis victimized by our “Exported Democracy”, and that is where the real deeply shameful truth lies.

An interesting note is that the availability of the very inexpensive ($20) “Explosively Forged Projectile” incorporating 1kg of high brisiance explosive to shape 1kg of metal disk into a pointed, finned cylinder while sending it on its way at about 8000ft/sec has equalized the playing field between the occupying Americans and everyone else: Sunnis, Shias, and the Common Man on the street. A “Peacemaker” weapon, so to speak, like the “Colt 44″ when the USA west was being “won”, it will “do” just about any vehicle including a tank, and if the armor plate happens to be a little too thick (ignoring the permanent hearing loss to all those inside after one of those clangs against the armor), all that is need is a step up to, say, 4kg of metal in front of 4kg of DX. What Iraqi can’t haul a couple of those around in his backpack to aim and fire when he is feeling pissed ?

Iraqis will NOT destroy each other, or even try to. That behavior is the doing of, and in the mind of, the USA. Iraqi people can’t be demons any more than Europeans or USA folks. They, like everyone else, are decent people trying to get by. They are a lot like Spaniards, Italians, and Danes: Who wants to fight in the streets when there is a nice lady to go home to – or friends, or kids, or a good job ? Only when someone is starving you, humiliating you, and killing you is the street the place to be. The USA made it that way ! It is time for the USA to leave. Iraq people are more into “Family Values” than Newt, George, Condeleeza, Ronnie, or even Bill ever were at their very, very, best, and all combined ! Iraqis are just too interested in their families and their lives to not do exactly happened in Vietnam when we (finally !) left. Settle down, get their society back in order and be productive, but give me a break – what the hell else would they want ? Yeah, a few obvious bad guys will (Surprise) disappear, but all the current violence is either a USA proxy, or fomented by the ONE thing the USA is good at: Killing people or getting other people to kill each other. When will the world learn and just ignore this immoral shit ?

And Israel. Those POOR Israelis ! The USA GIVES them fighters, tanks, rifles, and then they brutally, and with evil feigned innocence, oppress their neighbors. Then the world has to listen to their ultra-right scorch the earth pseudo religious ultra-paranoid bullshit ! Who will have – not the courage – it doesn’t take any to put a bully in her place – but just the balls – to tell those Israelis who act like degenerate, violent, pigs to sit in the corner, shut the fuck up, and leave everyone else alone !

All these scenarios in “Stone” are written by desk-soft city folks who are out of touch with the human spirit and never once asked even themselves what the inhabitants (citizens watching too much TV) of the USA would be doing if they for once were brutally occupied in the impossibly degenerate way the Iraqis presently are.

Damn tootin’ folks would be shootin’, bombin’, and killin’ to high heaven, and if you saw a neighbor cozyin’ up to the occupiers while your kids or husband, or sister had been humiliated, raped, and killed by some uneducated moron with an M16, you just might blow your neighbor’s ass away with no regrets.

Wake up !!

If Sy Hersh is right, and we’ve switched sides and are now backing the Sunni’s, then we are in real trouble. The long term winners in Iraq will be the Shia, they have the numbers and have now tasted power. By backing the Sunnis, we will only prolong the civil war, and we will be at a major risk of Iranian backed Shia terror groups. Look for Hezbollah attacks on Isreal to pick up, attacks on Saudi oil fields, the toppling of governments in Lebanon, Jordan, and possibly Egypt by jihadist extremists. We are actually better off by making nice with Iran (the mullahs who have the power, not Ahmaninijad), agree to support some Iranian puppet regime in Iraq in return for IAEA control of their nuclear capabilities, their support against Al Qaeda, and a commitment to not extend their influence against the Sunni states. We could also agree to include Hezbollah in the next round of Isreal/Palestine peace talks. There is a deal here to be made, but this administration is too stupid/arrogant/lazy to consider it.

Rolling Stone is lame for erasing my post.

I suppose it fits into their PATHETIC pre-determined agenda.

The panel for this article had absolutely no one with an opposing view.

SPEAKING OF FASCISM, THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS OF IT FROM R.STONE. SAD!

I have to decide how to handle this because that post was very good natured and leading to potential solutions to big problems and people should have ALL the facts.

Obviously there are a few people that recognize reality when they [special thanks - ralph, cco prop. etc.]

TO THE ROLLING STONE PROPAGANDISTS THAT RUN THIS SITE [COUNTRY] INTO THE GROUND: I HAVE LESS THAN NO RESPECT FOR YOU.

YOU SHOULD BE ASHAMED OF YOURSELF.

GROW UP AND BE PART OF THE SOLUTIONS TO REAL PROBLEMS, NOT THE SPASTIC PART OF THE PROBLEM.

LET THE TRUTH COME OUT AND THE PEOPLE DECIDE.

STOP DELETING FACTUALLY VALID POSTS THAT ARE RELEVANT TO THE DEBATE!

Funny, but this is what I predicted was going to happen in June 2003 and my theory was the real neo-con plan was always to set a blaze in the heart of Arabi. No accidents, just tricks on Americans and the JCS.

It’ll get REAL bad. Bad bad. If it’s a 5 now it’ll go to 10 when we leave. It may reach 20 in the following years.

We, as Americans, are complete douchebags for invading on the basis of lies and then refusing to leave Iraq, even tho’ the Iraqi’s want us to leave.

So any messes in the future will be completely our fault.

It will be interesting to see the mad scramble to leave Iraq.You know ..helicopters on the roof of the US Embassy etc. Just don’t ask when the next 9/11 happens ” why do they hate us so much”.This has happened despite desparate pleas from the UN Security Council prior to the “Shock and Awe” start.

Let me know when you want the answers that prevail against any questions any human mind can form, and thus manfifest the result of your choice, regardless of opposition, by design.

The process is merely knowledge, that for which the human mind was designed, discovered by asking and answering the questions beyond those rudimentary questions asked by Bush and Rolling Stone.

DougBuchanan.com

Iran, Iran, Iran! The thing about going to war far away is that you have to prep. and build up material before you do it (all the while denying that you are preping for such). The “Surge” is only to buy extra time to get ready for what has already planned months ago. The chess game is staged and ready. The US assets are in place. Isreal will strike Iran first, the US forces will come under some sort of attack (self induced?) “forcing” the US to respond. Bingo WWIII and the end of the American $ and hello the Amero and the North American Union. You watch!

This miscalculation by an administration that has its own agenda (as differentiated from that of the USA people)could very (VERY) negatively affect the politics of the USA, even to the extent of a its eventual political break-up

Its curious that no one has offered, as once before, the option of nuking ‘em all back to the stone Age.

I see the whole Middle East as a War zone and also any place where they have the same people. Asia and Africa and parts of Europe. Bush has done one crazy thing. I always said that from day one and even his father putting a dictator back in power. We have no business being in the Middle East. This new oil contract will do even more harm.

I think a war with Iran is a good thing and I think its ok to keep our troops in Iraq as long as needed. As a nation we must stand strong and not be forced into retreat by our enemies. Napoleon would never have retreated like the Democrats are demanding.

Just like Napoleon we must keep marching into our version of the Russian invasion and must not contemplate alternatives such as real diplomacy. Barbarians like the Iranians and there four thousand year civilization do not know anything but force and we must meet force with force. This is why we will ultimately have victory like Napoleon and his empire and all we have to do is stay the course.

Thanks

Bad? You bet, but most Americans wont know how bad until it comes out as a pre-packaged Play Station IV game. –jws

I see an “enemy of my enemy is my friend” situation evolving where Shia and Sunni leadership agree to a temporary truce between them to deal with the larger problem of foreigners on Islam soil. Then God help Israel

The Battle of Najaf, 2007
By Austin Bay

Iraq’s Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is a most remarkable man.

Consider these attributes: a Muslim theologian who promotes democracy, an Iraqi Shia leader who supports national reconciliation, an international Shia luminary who believes Sunnis and Shias and Christians — and human beings in general — have reasons to cooperate and accommodate. In a just world, he would win a Nobel Peace Prize.

British Maj. Gen. Andrew Graham said of Sistani in 2004: “The pro-democracy moderate Muslim cleric doesn’t have to be found. That’s Sistani. Fortunately, he is the most influential religious leader in Iraq.”

Sistani’s influence extends beyond Iraq, into Shia communities throughout the world, including Iran and Lebanon.

However, these inspiring attributes are the very reason the so-called “Soldiers of Heaven” militia targeted Grand Ayatollah Sistani for either kidnapping or assassination this past weekend.

News reports describe the Soldiers of Heaven as a “messianic Shia cult” intent on murdering Shia pilgrims visiting shrines in the Iraqi city of Najaf. The Shia pilgrims were commemorating Ashoura, the murder of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson, Imam Hussein, after the Battle of Karbala in A.D. 680. That murder fixed the schism between the Sunni and the Shia. Najaf (which isn’t far from the modern city of Karbala) is also Sistani’s home.

I’ll get to the Battle of Najaf 2007 in a moment, but first consider who benefits from the mass murder of Shia pilgrims and senior Shia clerisy who support reconciliation and national unity. Here’s the answer: the Islamo-fascist killers who fear the emergence of a democratic alternative to tyranny and terror in the Middle East.

Sistani offers a modernizing Shia alternative to Iran’s radical leaders. That’s why targeting Sistani immediately suggests a touch or two of Iranian involvement, at least in terms of funds and operational advice.

Radical Shia groups in Iraq benefit from such a horror. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government has launched a new series of raids on Moktada Sadr’s Shiite Mahdi Militia. That’s put the Sadrists in a bind. Sadrist propagandists assert that the Shia radical militias protect Shias the government cannot defend. Savagery in Najaf plays into the propagandists’ hands — even though the nominal leader of the Soldiers of Heaven also called himself “the mahdi.”

Saddamist and Sunni rejectionists also benefit from murder and chaos. We know from documents captured in February 2004 that al-Qaida saw a Sunni-Shia war as its only path to victory in Iraq. Saddam’s supporters gambled that they could murder their way back into power by killing Iraqis and inciting ethnic as well as religious conflict. Saddam’s holdouts have been trying to stage an “Iraqi Tet” since 2004, achieving a media-driven psychological victory that will force the United States to abandon Iraqi democrats.

Do these disparate, philosophically antithetical rejectionist groups cooperate? Coalition intelligence analysts suspect they do — at least at the wink-and-nod level. Iraqi democrats and clerics like Sistani are their common enemy — a modernity and moderation that seeds their defeat. Shia clerics in Najaf told The New York Times that at least one Soldier of Heaven Shiite leader allied himself with Saddam Hussein in 1993. That’s one open-source indication of cross-fertilization.

So last weekend the Soldiers of Heaven — allegedly a Shia faction, but certainly a rejectionist organization — gathered at least 600 fighters (and possibly more) outside of Najaf on a farm owned by a supporter of Saddam’s regime.

But the Iraqi government struck first.

Press reports have emphasized the Iraqi government’s and Iraqi Army’s inadequacies. An Iraqi Army battalion dispatched to the Soldiers of Heaven camp encountered fierce resistance. It pulled back and requested air strikes and U.S. military support. The firefight raged for 24 hours. The Iraqi Ministry of Defense reported 263 militants killed and over 300 captured.

Striking first indicates improved intelligence. Iraqi forces striking first demonstrates improved Iraqi military capabilities. U.S. and coalition air and ground “back up” is an operational version of “strategic overwatch,” which was the goal coalition forces set for themselves in 2004.

Mass murder in Najaf was thwarted. The rejectionist forces were destroyed. American defeatists and Middle Eastern fascists should take note.

Copyright 2007 Creators Syndicate

So, Gary Jacobs, what good has this war done for our country other than make the criminals at the top even richer?

McPeak actually points a finger at the New World Order and the invisible government of the US in this quote:

“McPeak: This is a dark chapter in our history. Whatever else happens, our country’s international standing has been frittered away by people who don’t have the foggiest understanding of how the hell the world works. America has been conducting an experiment for the past six years, trying to validate the proposition that it really doesn’t make any difference who you elect president. Now we know the result of that experiment [laughs]. If a guy is stupid, it makes a big difference.”

If you follow the veiled comments that get published from members of the Council on Foreign Relations and other groups, you will have read in the 90’s ideas posited about how we don’t need strong elected officials, a strong Fourth Estate (journalism), etc. anymore. Bush is the first 100% puppet leader in US history. Even Reagan, Clinton, Nixon, etc, occasionally stood up to the mega-rich, ruling elite from time to time.

Also, as a student of WWI, I agree with that assessment. WWI was ultimately about a regime the international banking cartel didn’t want around anymore (Tzarist Russia) and a clash of empires between Great Britain and the rising German/Prussian empire, which was laying claim to large sections of Africa and building up a sizable navy to protect their empire and commerce. The same empirial stand-off is evident now between the interests of the US and China and Russia in the region. Now THAT is scary. Plus India and Pakistan are neighboring nuclear powers. Add Israel to the equation and its section of the population that believes in the right to secure “Greater Israel,” the ultimate cause of Zionism, and we are very close to WWIII.

thank you Gary Jacobs for a least bringing in evidence that is contray to the whole “we’re doomed, the sky is falling” schtick on here

its going to be tough, its going to be bloody. people will die. but the ultimate reward is that democracy will have been introduced, and iraq will be able to show that it will work, even in such a dangerous and violent environment

let us not forget that democracy is not an instant experiment, it took us about a decade following the Declaration of Independence to fully get on track towards our own democracy, and we still had a civil war, not to mention civil rights struggles–people think that just because Iraq hasnt mastered democracy in 3 years means that they wont and we should just leave

leaving right now would not only create a power vacuum, and lead to even more violence, but it would once again demonstrate that the west has no resolve for anything, and if you simply kill and disrupt life enough, they will lose stomach for the fight and run

we would once again look weak

Our democracy is a joke. Look at Bush. The Supreme Court elected him in 2000 and his chronies in Ohio stole the 2004 election for him and the special interests that he’s working for.

Gary Jacobs = Fact Machine

The “If we pull out of Iran, the country will descend into chaos” nitwit logic is truly remarkable-
what the hell do you think is happening over there right now?
Why waste more Ameican lives?
On an incursion based on lies.
How many more of our boys do the Republicans want to see killed before they realize “Oops! Our mistake!-sorry”
I would say our leaving might improve things-or at least leave them unchanged.
The country is in total chaos and mostly reduced to rubble, 100,000 Iraqi dead;
Death squads travel with little worry
WE really did help them out, didnt we…?
—-

This is just another Vietnam, only high tech, but now you have a three fold war, Sunni’s vs. Shiites and the powers that be backed insurgents attacking coalition troops. I want to say get out, let the strong survive but it is totally irresponsible.

I was wondering if anyone had any ideas on Afghanistan, you see, I am from Canada and this is a hot issue up here?
(I can’t believe all the different views and ideas, but I think only the strong survive. Iraq was not so much of a disaster, but change is really hard for some people and the States had this coming, I just hope it doesn’t escalate further.)

Austin Bay presupposes that American military intervention can alter Arab culture itself and make possible the type of change that would need to happen in order for Arabs to be more like Westerners.

One problem with this is the assumption that there are enough Arabs who want to their culture to be more like that of the West, let alone fight for it. To put it another way, Austin Bar is arguing that inside every Arab there is an American waiting to emerge. If that were really true, then there wouldn’t be a problem in the Middle East today.

Another problem with this assumption is that American military occupation will have some sort of magical effect on a culture that has a very, very long history of lawlessness, disorder, and of foreign occupiers unsuccessfully trying to establish order for them. As Americans, we tend to take the orderliness of our society for granted. We treat disorder, like what happened in New Orleans after Katrina, as if it were an aberration. In fact, order in our society is the direct result of having a government we trust and a citizenry that sees the benefits of maintaining that order. Iraq lacks order and putting American troops there doesn’t create order, just the temporary illusion of it.

Someone below sarcastically, but appropriately, cited Napoleon’s unwillingness to retreat as an example of the peril America faces. The simple reality is that Iraq is a political war. Bush staged it as part of an elaborate effort to get reelected (hence the “Mission Accomplished” BS). Now that the war is hurting him and clearly can’t be won, he’s just waiting out the clock so he doesn’t have to suffer any political consequences for the failure of his war. Politics got us into the war and politics is keeping us from doing what is in America’s interest… leaving.

In short, people are dying to preserve Bush’s image. Bush is throwing away the lives of our soldiers and endangering our national security (by weakening our military, our economy, and by ignoring bin Laden) for politics. This is the most disgusting display of putting politics first and America’s interests last that I have ever seen. The Republican Party has sold America down the creek, because all they know how to do is play politics.

All of the available facts point to the same conclusion… Iraq is not a “winnable” war and the longer we stay, the worse it will get and the worse the consequences for leaving. Arguing to stay in the war at this point indicates a flaw in judgment so profound that is borders on being a character defect. Arguing to stay is confusing politics for America’s interests. My recommendation is to try a 12 step program.

Dear Gary Jacobs,

Go enlist. I hear it’s even more fun than playing with GI Joes.

America’s chickens will come home to roost in the form of a domestic economic disaster at least as bad as the Great Deprssion. We are already a bankrupt debtor nation, and it will be China calling the shots in 10 years, not the U.S.

We’re seemingly on the edge of a terrifying precipice in regards to Iraq and Iran. And for what? Let’s tell it like it is. The U.S. is hell bent on global hegemony. It covets the perceived geopolitical benefits that come from countries in the Middle East. Covets their oil. Their strategic locations to oil routes and corridors within Eurasia. Covets the chance to build military bases in the area.

We’re poised to attack Iran at any moment. Have huge miltary resources surrounding Iran and in the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea. Or it may be Israel that strikes first as they’ve recently put the country on notice to avoid travel to surrounding countries in the next 30 days. And the plan isn’t only to bomb nuclear facilities… it’s also military installations, infrastructure etc. Bomb them back to the Stone Age as I’ve recently read.

What is wrong with our leaders that we feel it necessary to attack another country that is not an immediate threat to the U.S. and has no intention of militarily attacking us. To inflict countless deaths and injuries in the name of what?

No good can come from another ill-conceived attack. The consequences will hound the U.S. for decades to come. Here’s hoping that somehow saner and calmer heads will prevail and there will be no attack.

S.L.

When you say the US is hellbent on something, it sounds like you are saying all of us are. The reality is that a small group of elite ivory-tower, Republicans with profound personal interests in the Middle East are hellbent on using America’s military might and money to dominate the region. In order to accomplish this, they are willing to lie, cheat, and steal from the rest of us.

CNDA –

NATO is trying to do in Afghanistan with 40,000 troops what the Soviet Union wasn’t able to do with 150,000 troops. I don’t know if it’s too late to turn the tide in Afghanistan. We can’t withdraw. We have to stay with this one for the long haul. I think we should send ALL of America’s available forces to Afghanistan, rebuild the country lickety-split, build an effective, neutral Afghan Army, and get out of dodge as soon as we are certain al Qaeda/Taliban will not take over.

Eisenhower warned us against fighting land wars in Asia. Afghanistan and Iraq are both in Asia. It is not in our long-term interest to have a military presence in either country.

Let me take you down, ’cause I’m going to… occupied fields. Nothing is real, and nothing to get hung about. Occupied oil fields forever.

It will be a Tsunami of Blood, no matter how we slice it! The only question is how we reduce the number of deaths.

Great article. However you never mentioned those that have been winning all along and will be the ultimate winners. Guess who? Yes, it is and will continue to be all those recipients of no bid contracts to “rebuild” and provide “services” in Iraq. And guess who is out there leading the way to the bank? A clue. What company has recently moved its headquarters and CEO to Dubai?
Right again, Haliburton. And just to close the loop, who is the one person who really pushed for the invasion of Iraq? Last name begins with C. Now,is there in any way a connection between C and H? See the picture. With each new exposure of this administration’s arrogance and greed, it is becoming clearer to all that WMDs and democracy were hollow excuses.

Skip,

You are absolutely right.

In order to reach the point where America can see the issue that clearly and that realistically, we have to overcome the Republican Party’s successful campaign to divide an misinform the public. Once we all know the facts, the answers will be obvious.

The game in Iraq has never been played for a win, rather the strategy seems to have been focused on creating the situation which we have at present, the beginning of the balkanisation of Iraq, wherein it will be split onto various semi autonomous states.
In real terms, the US has achieved exactly what it set out to do, and that was emasculation of the majority Iraqi federal forces to eliminate any regional influence they might still have had and as a possible threat to Israel.
Through the establishment of confrontist policies that are at odds with Iraqi culture and the imposition of a puppet government to support them, it has had the desired effect of causing fractious dissent amongst the factions in Iraq that were previously stayed in their regional tribal fights by the heavy hand of Saddam.
This new approach has brought about polarization of all groups into smaller ethno/religious entities, Shia, Sunni, Kurd etc, and dramatically heightened tensions between them, this was and is a part of the plan.

The only issue now is to define the geographic areas into which these groups can live reasonably peacefully together, and you have a fait accomplis. Removing the troops now from Iraq proper will perhaps slow this process, but it is a process which will inexorably unfold along the same lines, regardless of US troop presence.
The plan never was and never will be to “secure” Iraq as a democratic and united federal state, a broken and shattered country with no more political clout or ability to remain sovereign, was and is the only reason for this massive crime to have been perpetuated.

An “exit strategy” is absurdity defined to perfection.
The US will never leave Iraq, they might abandon those areas which they can not control, but as far leaving, it’s not going to happen.

In Iraq the US has built some of the largest military bases anywhere outside of the USA, these were built specifically to protect the oil supply and to help defend Israel, they are permanent.
It is no secret that the largest of all these US bases has been built close to the oil fields and their repective export facilities, this was also part of the long term plan.
Empire building sometimes has its ugly moments, the Iraqi gambit is just one such incident in the dozens coming down the line, all planned.
The long term plan is for more of the same, count on it.

As incredibly bad as I see the war in Iraq going, I’m convinced that if the United States attacks Iran, especially if they use nuclear weapons, that within 15 years the United States dollar will be near worthless and the country will break up into 5 to 7 new countries, the way that the old Soviet Union did. The difference is I don’t think it will be a relatively peaceful seperation.

Squirrel,

I agree with you that that is the real objective.

As an American, concerned about America’s interests, I don’t see any long-term benefit to this objective. Using our power to humiliate the Arabs doesn’t do anything to create a more peaceful world or stable Middle East. Trapping the American military in an open-ended deployment in the Middle East severely limits the strategic options this war supposedly advances. Finally, you don’t need troops in Iraq in order to contain Iran or protect Israel.

All we have done with our invasion of Iraq is to throw Russia and China into each others arms and now Iran is seeking their protection and assistance. They will get a nuke, like North Korea did, because China and Russia want to dissuade us from invading them. How does bankrupting ourselves in order to instigate a new Cold War with an increasingly vital China and a resurgent Russia benefit America? This is just monumental (Wilhelmine, even) stupidity pretending to be strategic insight.

john

yes, iraq is partly about oil, one would be a fool not think that oil had nothing to do with it

but there will be no war with iran, and your fears of a china are rooted in economic misconceptions…china needs us as much as we need them–were tied at the hip economically (china provides the goods, we provide the market)

russia is a fading superpower sliding back into a tsarist autocratic state, and is merely rattling the old cold war saber for their own advantage

and lastly, if you think that iran is developing nuclear weapons because they need protection from us, then you are seriously misguided…Iran is led by a fanatical anti-US, anti-West in general regime, and their ultimate goal is the the annihilation of first israel, then us, leading to muslim domination…and as long as we are in iraq, iran (or at least its leadership, its people are another story) cannot make an outright move

Please check out this political parable I’m trying to get published. It’s set in the context of a teacher discussing with his adult students all the evidence that the Bush administration is as corrupt as they are incompetent. I took the liberty of writing in comedians and our favorite political commentators to play the students, so it’s very funny despite how infuriating it is….and every day since I wrote the first draft Bush keeps making it more relevant than the day before. I’ve had Bush supporters change their minds about him and had a WWII vet say, “You made me feel guilty for not paying attention to Clark in 04!”

And as “The Fighting Dem” said about it: “You have cleverly used the Liberal entertainers to drive home and teach the horrendous lesson that the policies of the Bush Administration have not only failed us time and time again, but have caused damage to the U.S. that will be hard to repair. I think that this is an absolute tribute to Wes, and that you are indeed, a TRUE fan of Wes Clark.
Thank you for sending this to me. I thoroughly enjoyed it.”

Someone from Daily Kos wrote to me that she felt like she had PTSD from reading it. And I could go on about some of the accolades I’ve received for it; like the soldier I met online who that he wants to shake my hand.
You can access the word doc from my geocities page at clarkvsbush.com or ask me to email it to you via afanofwesclark@yahoo.com

Rorchach –

I think you are underestimating the Russians. They are hardly sinking… I’ve been there and things are improving significantly. I have no doubt that Putin seeks to increase Russia’s power and influence… we have given him the present of being to global bad guy for him. Your dismissal of the threat they pose is premature.

China will do what it has done for a millennium. They will create a situation where we are economically dependant on them. They have not done so yet and are, at present, dependant on us. But assuming the current status quo will continue forever is dangerous.

Russia and China are already assisting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Like with North Korea, Russia and China both seek to defend their self-defined sphere’s of influence. Central Asia is well within both of their sphere’s and both have an overriding interest in keeping America out. Iran is their bulwark against what they perceive to be American ambitions in this region.

Do you have any evidence that Iran’s ambition is to nuke America? This sounds like the same sort of unfounded fear mongering speculation used to instigate the war with Iraq. I have no doubt that radicals in Iran seek nukes for nefarious purposes, but to assert that the clerics, the President, and the military of Iran are all on the same page is pretty far out there. What about the reformers? Nobody gets elected to public office in Iran with the permission of the clerics, if the clerics were all hell-bent on an evil, anti-American jihad, would it really make sense for them to allow pro-American reformers to even organize?

Also, don’t forget that the Iranians helped and continue to help us in Afghanistan through their proxies, the Shiite Hazara people. The Persian-speaking Hazara were instrumental in the Taliban’s overthrow.

As to China and Russia working together and the fact of a new armed competition between Russia and America, those are easily verifiable realities. Russia and China are seeking to counter-balance what they see as unrestrained American power.

I saw this whole thing evolving since the day Saddam was down and migrations started from Iran to Irak. There is no stopping, these cultures have been fighting for ages. They hate each others guts. Just hoping our troops are out before the s..t hits the fan.

RS,

Hard to reason what comes first – bankruptcy or oil companies caliphate. I can’t reconcile oil co profits if US too broke to cruise. Maybe annihilating ALL mideast humans on the surface precludes paying mineral rights to them. Possibly dual national traitors running torah playbook to facilitate an eastern border on the Euphrates es irregardless of radio nuclide contamination. I don’t give a shit either way. $doe NO GOOD – insurgency comes here. WWIII with nukes, I got a vacuum hose and a gas can full for gas engine ride to the final sleep…

I got to go take a Bush & Cheney

Shaka,

T St Clair

.. all so worried about a nuclear-armed Iran? There is nuclear-armed Pakistan, India and China to the east. Nuclear armed Russia and E.U. to the north. Nuclear armed Israel to the west. Nuclear armed U.S. in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the Persian Gulf. I’m not sure if Iran is after the bomb and as a general principle I am against the idea, but you know what? They’re crazy if they don’t.

I am worried about a resurgent Russia and China taking advantage our American weakness, caused by the over extension of our armed forces called the Iraq War.

I want us our of Iraq so we can stop the arterial bleeding of our blood and treasure.

I am also worried that the Republicans are trying to instigate a war with Iran, the way they did with Iraq. Iraq was about getting Bush reelected and Iran will be about keeping him from getting impeached.

Hey Gary Jacobs!

Being mad at Rolling Stone for not including opposing viewpoints? What opposing viewpoints? You mean the people who think it’s going well???

The ones who are still waiting for flowers and candy?

Well sorry your pathetic brainwashed lump. You and your ilk had the public stage before during and, well, during the Iraq war, and we’re taking the mic and you know what? The car is going off the cliff.

We warned you. We said, “Don’t turn down that road. You’ll go off a cliff.” Did you listen? No.

And now the car is sailing through space and what, you want Rolling Stone to include someone who will say that the car is sitting safe in some parking lot is Columbus, Ohio?

BushCo drove this thing off the cliff and now they’re quite certain that if only they look long enough, they can find an exit. Well guess what? There is no exit. THIS is why you don’t do stupid things. Because bad things happen.

You got your way. We invaded. Now we all have to live with it and somehow do our best to deal with it. If you can’t even be enough of a man to admit that you don’t know what the hell is going on, then I’ll tell you what, shut the F*#k up. We’re screwed. There is NO opposing viewpoint to that fact.

Best damn roundtable on Iraq I’ve heard in years! ABC, NBC Sunday talk shows…hell, even PBS (Washington Week) have NEVER had anything even close to this hard-hitting! Put me down for at least a year!

TonyT:

Actually much of the positive news in the post that got deleted was about alternative sources of energy, and other solutions to the underlying problems ie: the petrol-blackmale hangin over our heads.

Obviously you didnt read my next 2 posts or you would see just a few of the reasons for CAUTIOUS optimism.

One other thing that I will repeat a million times if I have to:

THE ANBAR SALVATION COUNCIL = 30 of 36 SUNNI TRIBES OF ANBAR HAVE TUNRED AGAINST AL QAEDA DUE TO THEIR SHEER BRUTALITY AGAINST IRAQI CIVILLIANS. That’s Sunnis working with the Shi’ite Govt, and the US.

Maybe you should look to a few other places besides defeatist propaganda sites for your news.

I’ll get to the rest of my replies later.

Rorchach,

The question about withdrawing from Iraq comes down to this… Is it better for America if we stay or would be better off cutting our losses.

You raise valid point about keeping the Syrians and Iranians, as well as the Saudis, Egyptians, and Jordanians, out.

On the other hand, we have the experience of the Israelis in Gaza and the West Bank, as well as the shared Israeli and American experience in Lebanon, to serve as examples of what Iraq will come to look like under continuing occupation.

There is every reason to believe that continued occupation will only lead to bigger and deadlier acts of violence against our troops. As we have already seen, the Iraqi insurgents have fingered out how to shoot down our helicopters… a startling and dangerous development. Are our casualty rates going to continue increasing?

Also, we have to ask ourselves if it is really possible for us to “set up” a stable Iraqi government or create lasting stability of any sort. Our experience to-date is not promising at all. Worse, the Iraqi army and police can’t seem to do their missions successfully, despite having 4 years worth of training by one of the most powerful military machines on the planet. You can’t teach them to fight if they don’t really believe what they are fighting for.

We also have a dangerous situation in Afghanistan. We definitely cannot leave there without being certain the Taliban/al Qaeda won’t take over. We might have a chance to stabilize Afghanistan if we had more troops to send, but instead we are withdrawing them to prop up our lost cause in Iraq.

After watching Bush sit on his hands when it comes to regional diplomacy, rebuilding, and Iraqi self-defense, I have serious doubts there is any chance he can successfully achieve any of his stated objectives. It leaves me with serious doubts about his honesty when he says those are prime objectives. I think he’s just telling us what he wants us to believe.

In my view, he started the Iraq War so he could claim an easy victory to help him get reelected (hence the “Mission Accomplished” nonsense and the “Bring ‘em On!” BS). Now that Iraq has gone sour, he has to chose between withdrawing and risking the political consequences of that or of trying to wait out the clock and pass the problem on to the next President. It sure looks to me like he’s trying to wait out the clock. Fine, but is that in America’s interest or just Bush’s?

Iraq and Bush reflect the American character in decline: dumbass, brutal, and beligerent.

The Republicans under Bush/Rove have been the most incredible parade of incompetence & corruption & brute force this country has ever seen.

After I saw that the Republicans are leading in the presidental poll I started seriously considering leaving. It’s really American values that make me want to throw up and pull my family out of this hole.

i have been promised WW111 since 5th grade. for me that is a long time ago. like fifty years.duck and cover my ass. i’m looking forward to it. the troubling thing; as an atheist i don’t want the “bible” to be right. seems to me that it predicts the end will come from the middle east. of course when those fairy tales were written the middle east was virtually all that was known of the world.

in eny way,US is going to get the oil in the iraq.their plan is working perfectly,leting them kill each other in iraq.after some 5 to 10 years there won’t be any iraqies living in iraq and americans will get the oil.
I dont know why these dumbass iraqies dont see this?

John:

I was just about to type another reply, and then I saw yours.

The lessons from Israel that are to be learned is that withdrawl with a vacuum left behind is not desirable.

Israel left gaza, and Lebanon as gestures of goodwill, but the other side only sees them as weakness.

There are a number of other examples where showing weakness to islamic tyranny only invites more tyranical behavior.

Lets look at the facts. Repulican and Dem alike have shown weakness to islamic tyranny, and made it stronger.

1. US leaves Lebanon in weak fashion in ‘83. Lebanon gets occupied by Syria/Iran/Hezbollah. Israel stuck in a Quagmire. Israel withdraws in 2000, only to get more terror, and little-to-no support for the “blue line”. Israel goes in a second time to fix mistakes. Has weak leaders, and can expect Hizbullah to start another round of war.

2. US Fails to finish the Job in Iraq in ‘91, or control the aftermath – Kurds and Shi’ites are massacred. Saddam conducts covert war of terror on US [see Laurie Mylroi’s “Saddam Hussein’s Unfinished War on America]. US has to go in a second time to fix mistakes

3. US withdraws from Somalia in weak fashion. Somalia left as a failed state. Warlords/Islamist grow in power. 1998 africa embassy bombings [among other attacks] come from Somalia cell of al-Qaida. US/Ethiopia have to go in a second time to clean up mistakes.

Bin-Laden cites everyone of these examples, and Vietnam, to point to American weakness and inability to finish a job. They are playing the democrats and main stream media like a fiddle.

THERE ARE BETTER WAYS TO BE A RESPONSIBLE OPPOSITION.

see you illustrate my point gary…simply pulling out wont so much as cut our losses but increase them…and truth be told, at this point, its not so much us who are really catching the brunt of the violence…its the iraqis

we at least owe it to them to help them get on their feet. we left them hanging in 91, and if we do it again, any faith that they might still have for the US will evaporate

the radical muslims will only be emboldened by us pulling out now

and since history usually repeats itself in the region, we would probably only end up going in again to clean up the new mess that is created…

maybe the people of the world who just want to live a god/good life will throw the stupids out. How much money can rich spend? Their children are as messed up as ours. Their health is just as poor. Maybe Rodney King was right.

This is going to be worse than Vietnam, much worse. The country is broken and divisive. Families are alienated from one another as they were during Vietnam, the country is on the brink of financial ruin and we have a leaderless Congress.

Veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan broken, zero credibility in the international community, layer upon layer of corruption and greed uncovered seemingly every day, the poor getting poorer, the housing market in the toilet… a nation hopeless and without inspiration.

We truly entering a New World Order.

Jenn- I fear that your forecast of doom and gloom is a near accurate one. This country is bankrupt in more ways than one.

I fear it will be very bad; maybe it will be less bad than I fear. But more to the point: whatever’s going to happen will happen *whenever* we leave. Ie, staying for more time or less, surging more troops or fewer, isn’t going to make the difference. It isn’t going to make any difference at all. Ergo, no reason to stay.

The Iraq war has similarities to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Once the Soviets withdrew, due to the cost, public unrest, and insurgency, a civil war ensued. The insurgents used the same tactics as well, attacking roads, conveys and public buildings.
Now look, today we are back again fighting in the Middle East and it is threatening to tare apart our Union. I am not saying I know all the facts, but this is the same story.

Fight for the USA! United we Stand United We Fall! We won’t make the mistake the Soviets made insurgents, attack us and we will nuke your dirty, camel fucking ass!

How bad might it become? Potentially speaking, Armegeddon.

Gary, referencing the totally discredited Mylroi, then the very very partisan MEMRI shows your true neocon colors. Live up to the mess you helped make, and tell it you see it: your only solution is to kill every arab.
Yeah, i’m sure that’s gonna fly.

The Bush Administration has started WWIII. That is a done deal. Because we as Americans cannot grasp the danger of this administration we will not impeach and they will be in office for 2 more years and I expect them to bomb Iran. Our economy will collapse and take a lot of the world with us. If we survive the nuclear exchanges in the world, (by we I mean the human race) no one will want to admit they are U.S. citizens if they can avoid it. The world will continue to turn its back on us until we become the forgotten backwater we deserve to be. Maybe then we can mature as a nation. Or we’ll balcanize and blame each other for the catastrophe.

President Dopey needs to be impeached before he brings the world to a grinding halt. He needs to be impeached as a way to apologize to the world for the mess he and his incompetent administration and the lap dog press and congress have allowed him to make.

This war is all about him and his buddies making money. He is a liar and a crook.

It’s time to tell the world we’re sorry.

Impeach him and his fat, bald headed war profiteer side kick.

We are trying to make the world a better place, believe it or not. They, and I mean insurgents, are will keep attacking us. Conspiracy theories and doomsday prophecies are no more relevant then they where twenty years ago. Everyone has opinions, scenarios, and anticipations but no one has any real answers, except retreat with your tail between your legs,

We are trying to make the world a better place, believe it or not. Conspiracy theories and doomsday prophecies are no more relevant then they where twenty years ago. Everyone has opinions, scenarios, anticipations but no one has any real answers, except retreat too soone, with your tail between your legs.

Eventually we will have to leave anyways…this is a no win situation.

Comparing Iraq to WWII is a joke. Who attacked first in WWII? The Japenese and Hitler. Who attacked first in Iraq? Bush.

During WWII sacrifices were made by the entire country, materials money and bodies went to help the war effort and the entire nation was involved. Iraq is the first war during which an American president has cut taxes. There has been no draft.

During WWII we were fighting the nazi and german armies. In Iraq we defeated the Iraqi army in weeks. We are now not even fighting an army, we’re fighting terrorists and insurgents from all kinds of backgrounds with all kinds of loyalties with one purpose: to create chaos.

There are millions of other differences. If anyone’s looking for an analogy to Iraq, think Vietnam on crack.

Gary Jacobs- I’m not sure what you’re trying to tell me here but it seems completely irrelevant. I’m not talking about completely leaving Iraq. I’m talking about ending the war and doing all of the infrastructure/ education/ electricity/ water/ hospitals/ etc. Basically, all of the things that we promised the Iraqi people before we created this mess. I remember Donald Rumsfeld saying that he doubted this conflict would last six months. What a crock of shit!

Your arguments are both borrowed and baseless. You insult those that you can’t out-debate and I’m sick of your overly long, bullshit posts.

The Iraq War is so complicated right now, we should leave it up to the professionals, hope they do the right thing.

Living is easy in Iraq, as long as you have an M-16…. It’s getting hard to provide cheap gas, but it’s allright. It doesn’t matter much to me. Let me take you down ’cause I’m going to… occupied fields… nothing is real… and nothing to get hung about…OCCUPIED OIL FIELDS FOREVER!!!!

interesting take on the beatles doc…

Lyric change: Insert “as long as they don’t shoot at me” for “it doesn’t matter much to me”

Thanks Jed, been working on it since about fifty posts in… check it out! Just trying to help and all…plus I have much more time to drink with this GJ guy on my side.

with all the difficulties we face in this world and the problems the future has in store because of our near sighted selfishness, it is a bit disconcerting that educated individuals still think of discourse as a contest between ‘us and them when after all we’re only ordinary men’. Perhaps when americans learn to work together for a common good rather than keeping their own party in power for selfish benefit, we will regain our standing as a world partner rather than just the rich bully with a spending problem and a chinese loan shark. GJ isn’t very effective anyways, no one has the patience or the will to read all his post anyways, tends to wax long and repetitive.

Amen, Jed.

Jed Clampet:

Apparently the truth is too long and complicated for you to take interest in, sad. Typical around here though.

My posts are aimed at Rolling Stone and their propagandists just as much as the readers here.

If you scroll down, or look to a few other pages… you will find your statement overblown.

Gary Jacobs- your ignorance makes me angry, sadly.

DeezNuts:

My Ignorance Huh?

Perhaps you should explain yourself instead of hiding behind vague comments.

Then again, I suppose it’s hard to challenge real facts and context directly.

The world is far more comlicated than many here seem want to, or in some cases be able to comprehend.

Gary and Rorchach,

I really don’t think we should be letting bin Laden and what he might claim be the reason we do anything. Bin Laden doesn’t run our foreign policy, we do.

Iraq is a disaster for this country. It is costing us lives, money, and weakening our defenses. Staying there longer doesn’t change that fact. Worrying that bin Laden will claim victory if we leave is not a reason to stay… Saddam claimed victory after the first gulf war… claiming victory is easy.

The secret is avoiding wars you can’t win. Bush failed to do that and handed America a defeat the day we marched into Baghdad. Compounding the error by staying is foolish.

DeezNuts:

Now I see you “explination”.

The hospitals/infrastructure etc…

The ground is being prepared for that right now. The enmy has brains also. They have changed tactics a number of times.

Things have changed a lot since the bombing of the Golden Dome.

Hang in there, and we’ll make this work.

BTW… I hate Rumsfeld also.

and claiming I insult everyone I can’t out-debate is a rather inaccurate and simplistic analysis

BULLSHIT as you so elequently put it.

Gary,

The simple fact that you blame our defeat in Vietnam on fellow Americans shows everyone your lack of sound judgement.

There was nothing to “win” in Vietnam. Once we overthrew Diem, there wasn’t even a stable government to prop up… gee that kinda sounds like what’s going in in Iraq. We won the Cold War because we finally wised up and left Vietnam.

As Mao pointed out, only a country as powerful as America could have left Vietnam.

I’ve read enough of your posts to know that what you call ‘truth’ is merely a well crafted dissembling of reality in order to support your party or a particular issue regardless of what points others raise.
IMO you are probably part of the GOP propaganda machine that is already gearing up for the next major election by paying ppl to spread their message on public posts(not quite evidenced yet, but heavily leaning that way). So why bother reading the ramblings of someone with an extreme agenda and no ability to ‘give and take’(also known as diplomacy)?

I really don’t think RS is remotely interested in these posts except to cut out the posts that are too obnoxious to them to stay on.
Na, you write to satisfy your ego and to enjoy reading what you write and the mere thought that others might read it as well and maybe, just maybe, agree with your message.

All of the available facts point to the same conclusion… Iraq is not a “winnable” war and the longer we stay, the worse it will get and the worse the consequences for leaving. Arguing to stay in the war at this point indicates a flaw in judgment so profound that is borders on being a character defect. Arguing to stay is confusing politics for America’s interests. My recommendation is to try a 12 step program.

Gary Jacobs-
Yes, exactly, your ignorance. The way that you think the Middle East dilemma can be solved with military force. How you support a president and an administration that would gladly sell you out for some donut-holes at breakfast. How you keep claiming that you have facts on your side when all you’ve done is copy and paste some lame opinion piece from rightie rags like the Post. I’m not pretending to have all the answers but I do know that what’s going on with our country’s latest engagement is wrong and should have never happened in the first place. We must pull our armed services out of there and help to start the re-building process with the Iraqi’s best interests in mind as well as our own. As it is the only ones getting what they want are the ones pulling in all of the war profits.

John:

How ’bout the lives of a few million Asian people? was that worth winning?

Frankly, the cold war lasted longer because we failed in S. East Asia.

As crazy as Nixon was, his meetings with the Chinese and the Soviets were done at a time of strength…when the Vietnamization process was actually working, and before Watergate [and his other demons] made Nixon a lame duck president.

The thaw in the Cold War happened during a time of America Showing great resolve. Things got worse, and the Soviets were feeling more brazen after that. Hence the invasion of Afghanistan and a few other little conflicts the Soviets were at the heart of right into the ’80s.

Gary,

Thant’s a nice, conservative myth which is wholly unsupported by facts. The difference between winning a war and losing one is know where to fight and where not to. No amount of “staying the course” will fix being in the wrong place.

The “We [Republicans/ conservatives/ whatever] didn’t lose the war, the Democrats did” line is just propaganda. It’s that sort of foolishness that divides Americans from each other when we need unity.

That’s right out of the Rush Limbaugh school of omitted facts and twisted reality.

John:

C’mon now… you seem fairly genuine. Now you are forcing me to repeat myself now that you have just repeated the “stay the course” mantra

General Creighton Abrams took the US military back to an all volunteer force, reduced the size of the presence in Vietnam from over 400,000 in 1968 to less than 40,000 in ‘72, and the NVA and VC still got their butts beat in the Easter Offensive [Tet, et.al.].
President Thieu in his resignation speech BLAMED THE US FOR NOT LIVING UP TO ITS PROMISE AT THE PARIS PEACE CONFERENCE, “IF we only have half the funding, we can only hold half the country.”

South Vietnam should be what South Korea is today. We are still in Germany and Japan 60 years later.

Jed Clampet:

WOW the arrogance of your ignorance is astonishing!

I may have to contemplate for a minute how/if to reply to such a rediculous statement .

John:

BTW… General David Patreus is today’s Creighton Abrams.

Licoln fired 3 or 4 guys until Grant.

BTW… Since when is Ford a democrat? I did not blame democrats. I blamed circumstances, and people involved. NOT A PARTICULAR PARTY.

I NEVER said “Democrats” lost the war… “Congress, Ford, Watergate etc…”

You seem to think “winning” is beating the other guy in battle. War, as defined by Clausewitz, is national policy continued by other means.

A war is only “won” if your national policy has been fulfilled as a result of that war. If a war weakens your country or wastes your resources without delivering a tangible benefit to your nation’s interest, then it is lost.

Vietnam was not “winnable” because there was no benefit for America to be had. Even if the fantasy of post-Diem South Vietnam being the next South Korea had been possible, then how, exactly would that have benefited America?

Of course, you could argue that we did win in Vietnam because we stopped to commies from taking over in Indonesia. But, if you go that course, then you have to explain why the communist insurgencies in Indonesia and Thailand died out AFTER we left Vietnam and were worse while we were there. The governments of both countries were thankful when we left.

Now, what national interest, or even attainable goal do you really think there is to be had in Iraq? Nothing I have heard from the right-wing to date has been practical or even possible.

You all seem like well informed people so I put this question out to you:
A course of more then 20,000 additional soldiers would be deployed in Iraq this year. This is in direct contrast to the opposite consensus. Are we fated for failure, please explain?

Bush is doing the opposite of the consensus because all he knows how to do is play political games. The “surge” invalidated the findings of the ISG.

Are we doomed to failure? If our goal is a stable Iraq, then yes. If our goal is preventing a terrorist attack, then no, but only if we change course.

Bin Laden’s goal is to get us bogged down and to defeat our military. The best way to avoid that is to not allow ourselves to get bogged down.

Our advantage is our ability to attack from a distance and we lose advantage when the enemy can get in-close. As long as we are in-close, we will continue to look weak. The longer we stay in-close, the weaker we become. Our best bet is stepping back again and using distance to our advantage. Don’t give bin Laden the opportunity to demonstrate that we bleed the same as everyone else. Why fight the war bin Laden wants us to? We should play to our natural strengths.

It is unfortunate that the Rolling Stone Magazine reports after the fact when quality material is available out there.

Congress is no stranger to the facts, but since they don’t represent us, bad policies are just pushed on us.

The reader should google between quotation marks these two articles.

“The negotiated exit strategy from Iraq; at what cost?” and “Is it high treason or just a simple case of dereliction of duty?”

The Rolling Stones better lead than follow.

I need to get in these forums right away, that is way too much posting for me to read! I like what Jed said that a few quotes back. Gary Jacobs, man that is a lot of thought going on. Who has that much time? I wouldn’t be surprised to see you are either getting paid or volunteering for some think tank group.
Just by the way you responded to that post worries me. There has always been tyranny in any government, don’t be naive. To say that someone is crazy to suspect Tyrannical groups funding internet propaganda is naive. To me that means that you either are apart of something similar to this, or you are being retarded and taking this personal.

Seriously though, GJ is probably not some propagandist, but don’t say the thought of it is stupid

Is there not more to Iraq then “us vs. them”, and what is the Bush Aministration’s final “endgame” besides effectively bankrupting the treasury? Bush once said this, and it still holds true today “only time will tell”, but he is an American above all else. These answers we may never know, but one thing seems certain that there will be a permanent deployment in Iraq, and regardless the damage is done.

Question –

“The damage has been done” is a lousy reason to continue an unwise policy that weakens the country.

Chenney’s end-game in Iraq is clearly outlined on the neo-con PNAC website. Iraq is the first step in a strategy to dominate the oil wealth of the planet and extend America influence into Central Asia.

Bush’s original end-game was getting reelected. He said as much in his own auto-biography (later rewritten by Karen Hughes). Now that Iraq has turned sour, he’s waiting out the clock rather than risk being blammed for his own bad decision.

As far as Chenney’s end-game goes, the reason we have an open society is so we can debate ideas and weed out the bad ones. By being as secretive as he is, he’s avoiding the public’s verdict… I guess he thinks he knows better what’s good for us than we do. Or, perhaps, he’s really just trying to use America’s resources to help his friends out. It wouldn’t be the first time in this administration.

What’s best for America is what furthers America’s national interests. IMO, being bogged down in the middle east and tilting at the windmill of Iraqi stability and liberal democracy is not in America’s interest at all.

In defense of Gary Jacobs…

I used to be a true-believing, movement conservative. I used to believe the arguments about the left being the enemy from within and all that BS. I used to listen to Rush Limbaugh for hours each day and walk away from my radio angry at the world.

What I came to realize is that the world is a complicated place and the answers to problems are seldom obvious or simple. The only things obvious and simple are wants and needs.

15 years ago, I would have been making the same arguments he is and I would have spent just as much time as he does making them. I don’t think it’s right to assign a nefarious motive to his passion. I do think it’s right to challenge his judgement.

I think Nelson DeMille has the right idea, but stop John Corey from intervening.

Prophet,

I don’t agree with you, but your version is just as plausible as mine… and far more plausible than the right-wing nonsense.

Iraq is dismembered: Iran takes it east of the Euphrates. Turkey shows the Kurds what it means to be the toughest guys on the block. They take the oil, in Kurdistan, too. The country west of the Euphrates is deeded in perpetuity to GW Bush, and that’s where he settles as nobody else will come within a country mile of him. Israel is then in a serious pickle, as Iran is that much stronger, and 200 klicks closer. The US will be absent. We will, however, be facing some nasty times in the Hague for all the Depleted Uranium problems we spread around. Ho hum.

Tusky

Word 1-

I basically agree with your view… as you can see from reading my other posts. I want us our of Iraq. I was defending Gary as not being a paid, professional propagandist. I don’t think he is one. I haven’t agreed with anything he’s said yet.

John,

I want us out of Iraq too. I don’t think we should ever have gone in the first place but now that we’re there, I really don’t think the doomsday predictions some people give for what will happen if we leave will come true. Either that or those predictions will come true regardless.

I think bush will try to keep on with the iran bs and probably nuke em. He’s a fucken asshole- actually the whole us government are assholed all of them all the corporate shit sucks- While all these rich people rolling stone hired to put their analytical bs into it. Acutlaly it’s going to suck for everyone for a long time. Vietnam was nothing compared to this and americans don’t even realize they are fucked

john, you said in some posts back that a 12 step plan would be the way to go

that is actually a good idea, because eventually we’re going to get out, at least in terms of major troop levels…we’re never truly going to be gone totally

but as i said, us totally getting out doesnt immediately solve the problem, at least not right now

as bad as it sounds, riding out the storm now is better than full scale butchery spilling over into iran, turkey, saudi arabia–take your pick

and gary jacobs is not a propagandist, he just fervently believes in what he says–and there is truth in his side of the argument, just as there is some truth in yours…again, neither totally leaving nor simple flogging are way through is the way to go

somebody somewhere must have a totally viable answer, if one exists

Up North- you’re absolutely right. The President and those he works for worked the American people into a frenzy of bloodlust. And most people signed on saying that we had to respond to 9/11. A large section of the American public still thinks that Saddam had a hand in the attack. Try convincing them otherwise and they’ll tell you that your a bleeding heart liberal that wants to see this country in the hands of the terrorists. It’s a totally bullshit argument but one that works and shuts most people. WAKE UP AMERICA! Our government in a house of lies and it’s time to take our country back for the people.

In the history books of a hundred years from now, it will be cited as one of the defining clusterfucks of all time, and the initiative that revealed to the world for once and for all that the USA is an ill-informed, highly propagandized and jingoistic rogue nation that is dangerous to the rest of the world.

I can’t imagine how such a series of utterly stupid initiatives have been made by the Bush white house. On the other hand, the man is a total idiot, so it doesn’t really surprise me. What I find really scarry is, how on earth a moron of his magnitude could possibly be elected to the highest post in the land, this is stuff from Mars. I guess one could take this a step further, fully one third of Americans still think he is the best thing since sliced bread, unbelievable. I cannot see any positive outcome from this, we will all be lucky if WW111 does not ensue (nuclear, at that!), wow, what an accomplishment.
Does this meam all people running for office in the U.S. are morons, or totally corrupt?? Is this what politics has come to?? Complete corrution and greed? Where the hell are the good leaders, I sure don’t hear anything sounding remotely like common sense eminating from any of the presidential wannabees I see on the tube.
What I do see is one massive BOOM, as the final straw breaks the camels back,as the “built on sand” economy comes crashing down around everhyones ears. Yes, they are related, very related. Without the corruption and greed built into the American psyche, this type of violent, dangerous political involvment would not be needed, and would not be tolerated. The fact that it is tolerated, and has been tolerated, speaks volumes about the American way of life and ideals. Katrina, Walter Reed “Hospital”, everyday people who can’t afford health insurance, $ Trillions of unfunded entitlements which hard- working citizens have been promised but will never see, $ Trillions of debt left to your children and childrens children, what a sick society. The U.S. exports the worlds largest, by far, amount of weapons of all types around the world, and then wonders why it’s such a violent place?? I think you are all f___ing crazy.

Word 1:

I see you have reered your head over on this page, with a slightly less rediculous tone.

Still, you obviously read into things that you want.

To clarify what I have said, Israel and the US are connected at the hip. It is the moral obligation of the US to stand for Israel. Above oil or money. Just as Haym Saloman never really cared about the money he lent to the American Revolutionaries.

There are mutually beneficial aspects to the relationship also. Besides all the technological exchange… Israel held the almost entire Soviet backed block of Arab states at bay during the cold war.

Which brings us back to the point for both countries: “PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH”

Only when both countries have shown resolve and a fairly firm position has the other side begun to realize that they better budge first.

Firm position in Nam led to Nixon talks with China and Russia

Reagan touts SDI which leads to Gorbechov coming to the bargaining table.

Mankind biggest mistake is the acceptance of the assurance from the Devil that he did not exist.

Our (European) mistake is that we believed America’s assurance it is a good power, the good guy.
America is not a good guy, America, or rather, its elite have interests.

Remaining a friend of America today is not an easy thing and I have turned my back to the country I once admired.

Sincerely yours!

Oljebaronen.

WASHINGTON — A spacecraft orbiting Mars has scanned huge deposits of water ice at its south pole so plentiful they would blanket the planet in 36 feet of water if they were liquid, scientists said Thursday.

Rorchach – I was suggesting that anyone who still believed what the administration was saying about Iraq and why we supposedly can’t leave needs to attend a 12-step program, like Alcoholics Anonymous, because their grasp of reality is slipping.

Oljebaronen – As an American who has traveled extensively and speaks 5 languages, I am sad to hear a European discovering what I have known all along… that America is not everything you hoped it was. As Zbigniew Brzezinski said last night on The Daily Show, “Americans are a decent people and have the right intentions, but they are also very ignorant.” What I will say in our defense is that bin Laden’s plan on 9/11 worked… he drove us to lash out mindlessly at anyone we could find, to violate our own beliefs and to forfeit our biggest asset… our reputation. He knew us better than we knew ourselves and was diabolical in his plan. As someone who lost friends or family both in Washington and in New York, I can’t help but take the attacks personally, but I think all Americans have lost profound… we’ve lost ourselves.

Brzezinski says that if we can keep a lid on things for the next 2 years and if we can elect a sane replacement for Bush, we might have a chance to rectify most things with our friends abroad. Happily, most of the people running for President right now are better than Bush… which isn’t exactly saying much. It helps for our friends abroad to remember that the alternatives to American power are even less palatable. I say this as someone who has worked tirelessly to oppose Bush and the Republicans as they have led America down this dark path… Hopefully, America will return to normalcy soon.

Gary – You last post tells me everything I need to know about your views on foreign affairs. You see America as being engaged in some grand moral crusade… first against communism and now against radical islamists. That makes you an extremist. All I can say is this… acting like the enemy is the surest way to lose this conflict. I don’t care about your moral crusade, I want what’s best for America… not some, bizarre, pie-in-the-sky, horsesh!t about spreading our way of life to the far corners of the planet. My advice to you is that if you feel so strongly about what you believe to be the moral imperative of our foreign policy, then you also have a moral obligation to go fight for your beliefs… with a gun.

UpNorth and Word1 – I agree with both of you.

Can Gen. Petraeus Turn War in Iraq Around?
By Victor Davis Hanson

The verdict on four years of fighting in Iraq hinges on the events of the next few months.

With the U.S. public and many politicians intensely skeptical that a changed military strategy can salvage the war, the U.S.’s new commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, must win them all over — and fast.

Petraeus takes over on the heels of the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, the departures from Iraq of Gens. John Abizaid and George Casey, and the electoral gains of anti-war Democrats.

DESPITE THE DOOM AND GLOOM, he has arrived in Iraq with a surge of more than 20,000 American combat troops, and new theories on how to conduct counterinsurgency — involving ridding terrorists from neighborhoods, and replacing them with Iraqi and American troops to ensure public safety and the restoration of basic services.

Somehow Petraeus has to quell Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence without impinging on the autonomy of the Iraqi government. That means not just winning hearts and minds, but also disarming militias; stopping the policy of arresting and then releasing terrorists; widening the rules of engagement; and preventing jihadists from infiltrating Iraq from Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria — and all the while giving the credit to the Iraqi military.

But has a single commander ever made much of a difference in almost instantly turning around an entire theater?

In fact, yes. The once relatively unknown Gens. Ulysses S. Grant, Curtis LeMay and George S. Patton all found renown only after replacing their failed predecessors. Indeed, in almost every war, on occasion a single general can so radically change the pulse of the battlefield that a political victory becomes possible where once the public thought it was utterly improbable.

Take, for example, the Boer War between a colonial Great Britain and the Afrikaners of South Africa. Its first year (1899) proved disastrous for British forces. Their conventional forces were ill prepared for guerilla ambushes by Afrikaner irregular sharpshooters and cavalry. But with the appointment of Lord Kitchener in 1900 came the creation of British commandos and new tactics, leading to a British victory and an eventual settlement.

Great Britain faced an even bleaker situation in the first three years of World War II. But by late summer 1942, newly appointed Gen. Bernard Montgomery had reorganized British defenses in Egypt and restored morale. He then stopped German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel at El Alamein, and criticism of Churchill for the past serial losses of Western Europe, Greece, Crete, Singapore and Tobruk ceased. Britain was soon on the offensive for good.

Korea, too, was once thought all but lost. In late November 1950, hundreds of thousands of Red Chinese overwhelmed United Nations troops and nearly drove them off the peninsula. A tired Gen. Douglas MacArthur was stunned, frustrated and, in a few months, relieved of his command.

Unfazed, his replacement, Gen. Matthew Ridgeway, restored an offensive spirit, found weaknesses in enemy tactics, and pushed the Chinese and Korean communists back north of the 38th parallel. That turnaround gave newly elected President Dwight Eisenhower leverage, which eventually he used to conclude a peace that recognized an autonomous South Korea.

During the unforeseen Arab offensive of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel was stunned by an even greater surprise than the Chinese invasion of Korea. Armed with lethal new Soviet anti-tank missiles and protected by anti-aircraft batteries, Anwar Sadat’s 3rd Egyptian Army stormed into the Sinai Peninsula, inflicting severe losses on the stunned Israeli Defense Forces.

Conventional wisdom called for Israeli counterattacks within the Sinai. But eccentric Gen. Ariel Sharon chose instead to cross the Suez Canal to cut off the supplies of the Egyptian army and threaten Cairo. The dynamics of the entire war were radically changed by a single general’s risky gambit. As a result, Israeli forces salvaged a victory of sorts from the jaws of defeat.

Today, Iraq poses no more a dire predicament for Petraeus than the past obstacles that faced these gifted generals of prior wars — even given the fact that American manpower reserves and patience are mostly spent.

After the bleak summer of 1864, Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman saved the Union cause, and with it the Lincoln presidency, by taking Atlanta. By winter, we will see whether David Petraeus can likewise do the unexpected in Baghdad.

Victor Davis Hanson is a classicist and historian at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and author, most recently, of “A War Like No Other: How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War.”

You can reach him by e-mailing author@victorhanson.com.

Gary,

Post your own opinions or don’t post at all. If we all did what you are doing, there wouldn’t be a discussion at all… unless you are simply trying to span this board.

Your missing john’s point here, you can’t fight evil with evil. Love beats the demon any-day. I also think of a line from Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, when we had Cardassia surrounded, but they refused to surrender,
“You will have lost so many lives’, so many ships that victory will seem as bitter as defeat.”
I guess we should be bringing the boy’s home…and then move to Mars.
Have a good weekend; I have had enough of this crap.

John:

I am sorry to say that fascism finds you “my friend”.

The United States did not declare war on Germany after Pearl Harbor, Germany declared war on us.

It doesn’t matter what any of the labels you people try to tag me with. The only one that ever sticks is ”REALIST”

The fact is it was easier to find settlement with Communism. Mutually Assured Destruction does not compute with Islamic-Fascism.

They claim openly it is their goal to rule the world, and jihad against the infidel is the highest honor.

If you really need me to pull up the endless footage and/or transcripts of those exact words being said [some times even by people already in western nations] I’d be happy to.

If you really think America can hide behind some isolationist position, I am sorry to say that you are sorely mistaken.

Transportation, Technology, etc… the world is just not that big anymore for us to be fortress America and stay on the defensive.

No Matter what anyone believes about the reasons for getting into Iraq, Leaving a failed state is the worst possible scenario.

I CLEARLY stated that “I DO NOT HAVE ALL THE ANSWERS”, HOWEVER, leaving behind a human tragedy in our wake, YET AGAIN, and letting it spill over to the rest of the Middle East, is no solution.

DS9 is a really good primer on the Terror War… Babylon 5 is a pretty good one too, but DS9 really works for Iraq.

Gary,

Don’t lecture me on fascism. At least I know fascism when I see it.

Pakistan is scheduled to hold elections in 07. If the elections happen and are clean, anti-American sentiment could translate into a government of militant Islam with the keys to a nuclear arsenal. What’s happening in the Middle East could suddenly look like a sideshow. India would hardly sit by and watch. China would have an interest. And so on. bin Laden would be a national hero, AQ Khan would be on hand to advise on nuclear suitcases to be taken into the USA along people-smuggling tracks. It is simply impossible to overstate the stupidity of the Iraq venture. When neocons can manipulate a barely literate buffoon in the Presidency, this kind of thing can happen. Sadly, it has happened.

… and I wouldn’t label you as a realist… especially based on your posts.

John B,

If America had competent leadership, many of these nightmare scenarios could be avoided. Unfortunately, we are stuck with leaders whose every move is dictated by petty politics. America needs a statesman, but is stuck with a conniving b!tch.

John:

You of all people, “Mr Stay the Course” shoul;d be reading about the NEW PLAN. Your attempts to deny there is a new plan fall flat on their face. If I really need to do a direct comparrison between what was going on before and what General Petreus has instituted, just say the word.

AS WELL, There are plenty of other examples in there of the changing of a general changing the tide of an entire war.

John:

So you say “don’t lecture me on fascism”

My family was ALL BUT WIPED OUT by fascists. My friends/people are threatened by fascists all the time. In Israel and in Iraq, and in many other places around the world.

My friends/people have been intimately involved in the civil rights movement in the US, South Africa, and many other places.

IT IS YOU WHO SHOULD NOT BE LECTURING ME, “sir”

Gary,

It seems to me that, rather than have a discussion, you would prefer to toss meaningless labels, like “isolationist” and “friend of fascism,” at me. You’re lying about what I believe and then attacking me for it. Do you usually find that other people are stupid enough not to see through this lame tactic? And this after I defended you yesterday against people claiming you were a propagandist.

I have taken the time to debate, in good faith with you, but I don’t see you returning the favor.

Let me put this as simply as I can. Based on what you have written, you don’t seem to know much about foreign or military matters, nor much about affairs of state.

You are also very adept at repeating talking points and specious, pseudo-arguments. Have you ever cracked a book or read an article that wasn’t an opinion piece? You can’t know what’s going on in the world by listening to Fox News and Republican Party talking points.

You arguments lack any consideration for information that doesn’t support your conclusions. That sort of “I’ll only pay attention to the facts I like” thinking is dishonest, yields inaccurate wildly conclusions, and indicates that your reasoning is ideologically driven… which mean you aren’t really even thinking. It’s that sort of lock-step, formulaic, politically-motivated, ideologically-based thinking that is ruining America.

John:

WOW THERE GUY… SETTLE DOWN…

I DID NOT SAY YOU WERE A “FRIEND OF FASCISM”

I simply stated that fascism FINDS YOU, “MY FRIEND”…

READ SLOWER…

Settle down? What makes you think I’m upset?

You know, that’s actually another propaganda tactic… assigning a false and inappropriate mood-state to your opponent. By my count, you’re up to 4 distinct methods of making a propagandistic argument.

They are…
inverse scientific method,
selective use of facts,
use of false labels,
and ad hominem attacks.

Care to try for a fifth? I’m partial to shocking imagery, myself!!

The time for cautious optimism in Iraq has long since passed. Indeed, 60+% of the American public have reached that conclusion based on their own observations. I would argue that the burden of proof is on you to prove that Iraq is not a worsening disaster.

As I’ve said before, in order to argue that staying is a good idea from America and believe what you are saying, you have to have a serious character flaw or an ulterior motive.

Its interesting how Zbigniew Brzezinski,National security adviser to President Carter and author of The Grand Chess Game(sp)is an invited colleague on this article.
His book is proof of one of many “smoking guns”(PNAC another)that has shaped this Administrations policies.

Just as we failed in Vietnam in not recognizing culture, we are repeating mistakes thinking technologies will win hearts and minds.

susep –

Did you see him interviewd on the Daily Show last night?

there should be some cautious optimism, as none of us, presumably, are on the ground, nor are privy to all the information that the military has

if we really unleash the military we can win this thing, but we wont…

I predict we will pull out in 2 years…by then some semblence of an iraqi army should be up and running fully, but by leaving we wont totally leave, since we built bases there we’re staying for a long while

Rorchach,

The basic premise of a democracy is that the public can make that judgement. Are you arguing in favor of a military dictatorship for America?

John:

Huh?

How about trying to guess what your actual position is in the the face of vagueries.

It’s nice to say that “bin-Laden wants us bogged down”, or “bin-Laden Shouldn’t be running our foreign policy”, when you should know that is an obfuscation of the tasks at hand.

You have clearly misread where I am coming from and what my intentions are.

There will never be a total military solution to the worlds problems, and there will never be a totally social solution to the worlds problems.

THE TRUTH… is usually somewhere in the middle.

Good News is coming in…

US gives good news on Baghdad security crackdown
By ASSOCIATED PRESS
BAGHDAD

The US military said on Thursday that it and its Iraqi partners in the month-old Baghdad security crackdown had been turning marketplaces – a favorite target of al-Qaida and Sunni insurgent suicide car bombers – into pedestrian-only zones and that commerce was reviving dramatically in the capital.

Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr. also told reporters “there’s a sense of suspense in the air. A sense of anticipation and expectation of decreased violence with the Iraqi people.

“I think it is being met by this operation,” said the general, who is in charge of Baghdad.

but if we totally pull out, then what?

i suppose we redouble into afghanistan and get bin laden, but we cant just ignore whats going to happen in iraq

it will become another darfur, moreso than it is aready

My positions aren’t vague at all.

You know, I have answered every one of your quesitons repeatedly. You just keep ignoring or refusing to accept my answers.

60+% of Americans and 60+% of the military agree… staying in Iraq is a waste. If you guys think we should stay, then you go fight there.

Why don’t you guys prove that we need to stay?

Saying that we can’t leave cause it will blow up is a great argument for never having gone in.

Can you prove that things will improve if we stay, depspite the fact that things have deteriorated during the 4 years we’ve been there?

john

i would have no problem getting out, but the problem is just simply packing up and leaving strengthens iran’s position in the area, creates more violence and anarchy, and again shows us as a “weak” western power, whose achilles heel is its distaste for blood and wars that it starts

yeah, getting out would be just fine and dandy for us, but you cant just sit back and say “fend for yourselves after we fucked up your country” what happens when the violence spreads into saudi arabia, and other parts of the gulf…paying twenty bucks for gas seems like a great proposition…we cant just shut ourselves off anymore from the world

it seems we tried that in the 30s, and it didnt work too well

but who knows, you may be right, i may be wrong, vice versa…you do cite your polls well, and the numbers dont lie

time will tell, but i guarantee the situation will only get worse with our exit

also, saying we never should have gone in is a moot point…we’re already there, and monday morning quaterbacking never helped anyone win anything

Rorchach,

Is that a reason to stay?

Saying we should stay because we’re already there is stupid. Would you stay in a burning house because you’re already in there?

The vast majority of posts in this forum favor pulling our troops out of Iraq… this is your chance to convince us to stay and you’re not doing a very good job of it. Try harder!!

John:

“prove that we should stay”

Actually, I already did. And provided a couple of potential solutions to the underlying problems.

Besides the fact that the new plan is already bearing fruit, there are other signs for CAUTIOUS optimism such as the oil revenue sharing laws, Muqtada al Sadr has been marginalized in many ways, and The Sunni tribes of Anbar are starting to join the govt en masse.

Sadly, the reality of todays world is that oil runs it. Leaving that much of it in the type of civil war that would ensue should we leave now would not be good for the world markets or our attempts to get away from oil. This end of the conversation is fairly moot as the senate defeated a pull out measure today. I suspect that Pelosi and murtha will not give up so easily…but there is some breathing space to let Petreus do his job. Bottom line there is leaving that much oil for the Iranians and Bin-Laden to split before we get farther into the transition away from oil is bad strategy.

Whether it’s the florecent light builbs that use 1/4 of the energy the old ones did to slow the use of natural gas from the mideast, the Tesla Electric Roadster, hybrid Vehicles, Or the Hydrogen Energy Solutions in Israel, Ethanol pact with Brazil Just Signed, Nano Technology…

There is hope on the horizon.

after consideration, joe biden’s idea for iraq is probably the way to go–split the country up into its different elements (kurd, shia, sunni) and build a demilitarized zone, similar to the one that exists between North and South Korea, have UN mandated buffer zones, etc.

they’re obviously not going to play nice with each other, so separate them…then you move in with economic incentives, etc.

i think its a better alternative than simply leaving and hoping that everything rights itself

remember, staying the course is a retarded strategy, and i dont know why the administration continues to pursue it…

i dunno about you, but i dont see total iranian hegemony in the area exactly a good thing for american interests…but if the people want out, let congress vote…so far the democrats have been too spineless to do anything…if they just said “we’re getting out”, but with the add on that “we’re going to instead concentrate on Afghanistan” i’d be all for it, but so far it seems to be just “get out”

The only thing the new plan has proven is that Iraqi militias know how to hide their weapons. 3,000+ years of mideastern history contradicts your assertion that foreigners can impose order on that region through military force.

Try again

Rorchach,

Iran can be contained without us having boots on the ground in Iraq.

Our military advantage is our ability to strike from a distance. Putting our troops into cities and giving the enemy proximity access to them negates our advantage.

Don’t forget, Iran is a small, poor, badly-armed country. They aren’t much of a threat. At best, the are a local power.

they said the same thing about the balkans, and once the un got in there in and kept them separated, things are moderately better

the ultimate point is, that there is no right way out of this, but what are your solutions after we get out?
3000+ years of history have proven that just leaving them to their own devices wont work either
yeah, they might not be killing us, but can you point out how an even more radically unstable iraq is good for the US, or the world at large?
you may have posted your answer to this below, but its tough sifting through all of gary’s posts

Rorchach,

Democrats too spineless?? They voted on withdrawal today. The Republicans defeated in in the Senate (48-50) and it passed the House. My question is why are the Republicans hell-bent on supporting “stay the course?” They are playing politics with our national security… again.

that is true…but at the same time, us just leaving gives the whole thing on a platter to iran

but as i said, im willing to let the people vote on it, you may be right

it just goes to show that we can predict all we want, but no one is sure what will really happen

and yes, the republicans are playing politics, but the democrats are too…their resolution was an empty and hollow threat, and they knew it

its a way of saying they did something, while really doing nothing

There are many, many reasons to support withdrawal. Among them…

Every time an Iraq civilian gets killed, it gets broadcast to the Arab world via al Jazeera.

The region get even less stable than it normally is every time a foreign military occupies it. I’m not saying “GET OUT.” I’m saying get our troops out of Iraq… but make sure they’re ready to go back in for small operations.

I agree with you that the division will probably end up happening anyway. Containment of Iran is important, but we share a common enemy with them (al Qaeda/Taliban) and they have been cooperative. I think containing them will be fairly easy in the short term.

I suspect that the only part of Iraq we’re going to have to worry about is the Sunni part. The Shiites and Kurds have a vested interest in keeping us on their side.

At some point, we’re going to have to deal with Saudi Arabia. They are our “ally” but they are funneling money to the people attacking our troops in Iraq. I find that disturbing.

Resolution…

The one defeated today was binding.

“after consideration, joe biden’s idea for iraq is probably the way to go–split the country up into its different elements (kurd, shia, sunni) and build a demilitarized zone, similar to the one that exists between North and South Korea, have UN mandated buffer zones, etc.”

AMEN BROTHA!

I agree! Partition partition partition! It’s what will happen anyway, either by civil war or by U.S. engineering. It’s the most efficient way out of this hellhole.

John:

The Japanese made a quick transition to modernization after hovering in ancient traditions since way back in the day.

And while it is obvious and even spoken about that some of the militias have simply fled to other places or “gone to ground”, with the troops living and working in the cities and not staying in bases outside the cities there are and will be new realities on the ground.

It will be much harder for militia to come back with stability more firmly entrenched.

Last point before I eat, from what I understand more than 700 Mahdi Militiamen have already been arrested.

There is still a lot more work to be done, and there will be bloody days ahead to be sure. But the political, police, and military solutions are trying to be worked out.

Give them a little more time show show progress…

Gary,

Melding into the population was what the Iraqi army did origionally. Sadr’s militias are just emulating Saddam’s tactics. To defeat the Shiia the U.S. would have to keep a presence greater than the one we have there for five or more years to institutionalize the Iraqi gov’t.

Basically we’re not fighting an army, we’re fighting a Shiite cultural movement. Bases with a couple troops in them ain’t gonna help.

I don’t think it’s accurate to say that the Democrats are playing politics with our national security. They have taken heavy losses at the polls for NOT playing politics and. instead, doing the right… but not politically advatageous… thing.

The Republicans have a long track record at this point of using foreign policy and national security for their own political advantage at the expense of the country.

It’s not right to say they’re all the same… one side benefits from having everyone think both sides are equally craven.

I’m not saying that Democrats, per se, are pure. I am saying that the Republicans have a recent history of being really far off the reservation.

Gary,

Japan and Iraq are not the same. It’s a completely misleading parallel…. It is another right-wing talking point, though.

John:

The Iranians support Sunni and Shi’ite terrorists.

Even the 9/11 commission report discussed Hezbollah and Al Qaeda cooperating. That meeting was in Sudan and with Imad Mugniyah and a bin-Laden rep. Mugniyah reports to Iran and Hezbollah.

Sa’ad bin Laden and other high level al Qaida are reprted to be in Iran. Iran and Syria are managing both sides of the chaos.

The Iranians do not support al Qaeda and are not arming the sunnis in Iraq.

This is another one of those pieces of false information… like Saddam’s supposed role in 9/11 perpetuated by the right-wing.

Gary,

You’re supposed to be proving why we need to stay in Iraq despite mountains of evidence and a landslide of public opinion indicating that leaving would be better. You haven’t convinced me.

Ugh… time to go home. My weekend starts today, so I won’t be around for the answer. Nice chatting with everyone, though. Night night

John:

I find it interested how you have berated me with all kinds of claims that I have accused you of partisanship or use psychological trickery etc…

and then everything I say you claim is a “right wing talking point”…

I am actually quite liberal socially… The one partisan thing I said on these boards was on another page in a reference to wanting to vote for Guliani. Socially liberal, decreased crime something like 70%, took on the mafia as a prosecutor, normalized all the people in NYC illegally… right man … right place … right time… My opinion. Everybody can vote for who they want.

Gary said “The Japanese made a quick transition to modernization after hovering in ancient traditions since way back in the day.”

By “modernization” do you mean citizens with computers, vcr’s, engineering degrees, women in bluejeans and sunglasses, modern appliances and unlimited electricity to run them, women surgeons, university libraries, opera and theatre and art galleries and such? You mean like Iraq — before we bombed the crap out of it? Is that what you mean by modernization?

John:

Below is a public opinion poll from less than 3 weeks ago showing most of the public doesn’t want to just abandon Iraq. I can assure you that with more good news coming in the momentum is shifting to a more positive outlook.

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: 423 / 290-1470

FEBRUARY 20, 2007

AMERICANS WANT TO WIN IN IRAQ
NATIONAL SURVEY SAYS PUSH TO RENOUNCE WAR IN WASHINGTON ON DIFFERENT PAGE THAN MAJORITY OF AMERICAN PEOPLE ON IRAQ WAR

(Alexandria, VA) February 20 — In the wake of the U.S. House of Representatives passing a resolution that amounts to a vote of no confidence in the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq, a new national survey by Alexandria, VA-based Public Opinion Strategies (POS) shows the American people may have some different ideas from their elected leaders on this issue.

The survey was conducted nationwide February 5-7 among a bi-partisan, cross-section of 800 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. The survey was commissioned by The Moriah Group, a Chattanooga-based strategic communications and public affairs firm.

“The survey shows Americans want to win in Iraq, and that they understand Iraq IS the central point in the war against terrorism and they can support a U.S. strategy aimed at achieving victory,” said Neil Newhouse, a partner in POS. “The idea of pulling back from Iraq is not where the majority of Americans are.”

By a 53 percent – 46 percent margin, respondents surveyed said that “Democrats are going TOO FAR, too fast in pressing the President to withdraw troops from Iraq.”

By identical 57 percent – 41 percent margins, voters agreed with these statements: “I support FINISHING THE JOB in Iraq, that is, keeping the troops there until the Iraqi government can maintain control and provide security” and “the Iraqi war is a key part of the global war on terrorism.”

Also, by a 56 percent – 43 percent margin, voters agreed that “even if they have concerns about his war policies, Americans should stand behind the President in Iraq because we are at war.”

While the survey shows voters believe (60 percent- 34 percent) that Iraq will never become a stable democracy, they still DISAGREE that victory in Iraq (”creating a young, but stable democracy and reducing the threat of terrorism at home”) is no longer possible.

Fifty-three percent say it’s still possible, while 43 percent disagree.

By a WIDE 74 percent – 25 percent margin, voters DISAGREE with the notion that “I don’t really care what happens in Iraq after the U.S. leaves, I just want the troops brought home.”

Lyra:

It seems that you missed The Oil For Food Scandal? Saddam stealing from his own people? No, Missed that?

Claiming Iraq was somehow an ultra modern country before we went in is intellectually dishonest.

Who’s being intellectually dishonest here ? Saddam’s corrupt rule has exactly what to do with women surgeons and reliable electricity? It relates in what way to one of the most sophisticated network of highways in the region, the better to speed along in their German cars they loved so dear, or the weekend warriors on water skiis on the Tigris? How does oil for food relate to the Ma’moun Communications Tower, a system so high tech it took three nights of bombing raids to take it down?

Perhaps you mean the Iraq where men and boys ride to school on donkeys and camels while the women and girls in burkas stayed home and made flatbread and saw to their weaving. The one we were going to bomp out of the stone age for their own good, out of the generosity of we advanced Americans.

Gary,

Polls are all about how you ask the question. Last November, the American people answered pretty clearly: They want an end to the war.

Word 1:

The “Blue Dog Democrats” in the house got voted in for other reasons [corruption scandals, the male page episode, all kinds of other items going on]. Many Blue Dogs are on record saying they will oppose the Pelosi Agenda on Iraq. Look into it yourselves. The Dems will be defeated in the souther states the easiest if they go that route… and the ones that hold those seats know it.

AS WELL, the Senate has not even the simple majority much less the super majority required as evidenced by todays vote on a pull out. That requires 60 votes as a super majority to avoid a filibuster

Kyra:

C’mon now, just because Saddam had a few nice things going on for his Sunni cronies doesn’t mean the entire country was all hunk dory…

Spare Me…

Ask the Kurds, or the Marsh Arabs, or the shi’ites that Saddam never gave any resources to, or outright tried to exterminate how lovely Iraq under Saddam was for them?

Lyra:

Sorry…last post was to you…

Gary,

Voting for an end to the war isn’t a vote for “the Pelosi agenda.”

And the House appropriations comm voted mostly party lines today 36-28 for a troop withdrawl on sept. 08. Blue bloods in action.

The idea that a republican will win in 2008 if the war is still this bad is laughable.

What is unexplainable is why republicans still want to keep our troops in Iraq. Many are flaking away in the wake of Gonzalez, Cheney, etc.. scandals. They’ll flip flop on Iraq soon, once thier constituents force thier hand.

time quote:
The Democrats were also far more confident in the future. Whereas 40% of Republicans predicted the other party would win the White House next year, whomever it nominates, only 12% of Democrats felt that pessimistic about their chances. Then there is the real worry that the whole exercise might already be a lost cause. “In this environment, nobody looks good if you have an R by your name. It doesn’t matter who you are,” says a Republican campaign consultant in the Midwest. “I don’t see how that changes between now and Election Day. It’s the war; it’s huge. It’s just huge.”

Word 1, I’ve given this some real hard thought… I just might vote for a republican president for the first ever, provided they’re no compadre of the wacko death cult religious right.

The coming years are going to be so messy I feel like a republican Whitehouse ought to be made to clean it up themselves. Might cure Americans of the Right Wing fever for the next fifty years.

Lyra,

Hmm. your post doesn’t sound like the lyrically-named Lyra I’ve come to appreciate over that past few seconds.

To answer you, a republican has gotten you into this mess in the first place. Republicans cannot get elected unless they appeal to a religious “wacko” base. Hence any republican elected will have a political obligation to act just as “wacky” as the religeofreaks you don’t like.

The truth is the republican party you know has been hiijacked by the religious right. If you don’t like it, vote democratic. They’re the new Republicans.

What kind of victory do you think the White Housekateers envision? As usual, the public is misled into thinking that the Republicans are bumbling their way through this, that Bush is an idiot, and that the war is being carried on because they don’t know what else to do. Nonsense. The Powers-that-Be know exactly what they are doing, the goal was never to pacify Iraq, but to bring about the havoc that was inevitable. The best and worst case scenarios that the article discusses are not all that different than one another. The enlightened would argue for pullout not because we have lost the war but, indeed, because the mission has been accomplished. Haliburton has gorged itself, everybody who had defense stocks made a killing, the banks are owed another $500B, and the interest will never be paid off. They won. Hate to break it to you.

“Lyra”

Or you could put Obama or Hilary in control to win this ridiculous war on terror and bring the right back to its senses.

Hate2, I’d agree with you if we were talking domestic policy, say… Katrina, but a few years of sucking the teat isn’t enough to satisfy. One could argue that the intent was create a weak state in order to manipulate it, and we really had to meet bin Laden’s demands to get our troops out of Saudi… which Iraq gave us a face saving way to do so, but I don’t think they intended to create THIS bad a mess because in the long run it undermines support for military interventions. Without a host of interventions to stage and the appetite to support them, defense contracts dry up. I don’t think it was brilliance in costume, I think it was naivete.

Word 1

Hillary won’t be able to bring the right anywhere, too polarizing and I don’t think this dynasty trend in politics. Obama is too green.

Howzabout Bill Richardson?

It’s past my bedtime. Nice talking with you. I’ll check back in daylight to see what you think of Richarson.

I meant “like”.. I don’t like this dynasty trend. zzz z zzz z zzz z

john, im finally getting what your saying…forever i though you simply wanted to just leave…but you do have good ideas. at they same time so does gary…but you should both try to find some sort of common ground (after all, politics is the sport of compromise)

but i must agree that we should definitely side with where our interests lie…in this case with the Kurds and the Shia, in which case the breaking up of iraq would help (i apologize for simply catagorizing your comments of simply “cutting and running”)

but this is the kind of dialogue we should be having…word 1 this is also for you…the answer lies in the middle ground of the argument…gary jacobs has contributed some good points as well…i guess the point im trying to make is that we should commonly and rationally try to discuss as opposed to tearing each other down on the grounds of political ideology, because most people in america arent right or left, but in the middle somewhere, and sensible folk

we should work together to find some sort of solution to our collective problem, after all, as americans we all have a stake in this, and we should do what is best for all of us…the truth probably lies in between our posts

at first i was opposed to bidens proposition, but as time wears on, his seems to make the most sense

its late, and i know this sounds like some sort of hippie diatribe, but let civility rule the game. there is some truth in what everyone says, and let clear heads and the middle ground lead the way…after all, its sorely missing in politics today…just dont flog me too much for this i guess

to word 1

glad to see someone else also agrees with the partitioning…it probably should have happened a long time ago, and with iraq balkaninzing it just seems the best way to go

you can only stem the bleeding for so long i guess

even though i may disagree with biden on many points, that doesnt mean he cant have a good idea or two

i should have added to my last overly long post–

another agreement john–yes, saudi arabia is a problem, and its going to be interesting to see when we finally draw the line with them (in my opinion we have let them slide for too long). Then again, thats how politics is played, and until Iran straightens itself out (at least in the leadership area) saudi arabia is the only other major power in the region we can count on as an aly, the lesser of two evils

The Iraqi newspaper al-Mada, which has recently been at the forefront in reporting the news of the “retreat” of al-Qa’ida from al-Anbar, has published another front-page article claiming that Al-Qa’ida is now facing in Falluja the same form of opposition that had forced its retreat from other Anbari cities. [Anbar Salvation Council]

Al-Mada quoted unnamed “sources” (perhaps the same sources that had informed the paper about events in Hit and Ramadi in the last weeks) who told the newspaper that al-Qa’ida is “in its death throes” in Falluja. Falluja is seen by Iraqis and Americans alike as a bastion of opposition to the US occupation and the pro-American Iraqi government. Eliminating al-Qa’ida from the city, or even significantly weakening it, would be seen as a major step in depriving al-Qa’ida from its safe havens in Iraq.

Partition – Based on the looks of the oil agreement that was just reached BY THE IRAQIS… it looks like a “soft partition” that involves as little relocation or “ethnic cleansing” of minority population from each region as possible.

Lieberman voted with Republicans with greater frequency than he did his own party. It’s important to note that at the same AIPAC, Christian Zionist and Armageddon cultist JOHN HAGEE delivered the keynote, casuing many Jews to decide AIPAC has lost all credibility. In fact, the influential Jewish weekly, the Forward, reminding Jewish organizational leaders that they may have Congress’s ear, but they do not speak for the nation’s Jews.

I think this will eventually lead to a war with America facing Russia and china with their Arab allies against us. I think Bush has stumbled us into armagedon and billions will be dead when this is all said and done with.

For the time being anyway, China’s economy is too entrenched with the US economy, war between China and the US would be a lose lose proposition that even irrational leaders understand.

T

Lyra:

Last one should say “after the lebanon pullout, Israel got no respect for the ‘blue line’ and more terror” the left wing has been marginalized.

I know many of the Jews that attend AIPAC are quite liberal socially. It may take a while for reality to set in with the “elite” journalists in the US Jewish community. However, not only did AIPAC see its highest attendance ever, Nefesh b’ Nefesh has recently started a regular monthly Aliyah flight to accomidate all the N. American Jews moving to Israel.

Gary Jacobs-
How the hell do find the time to write all these lengthy posts? I don’t even have enought time to read them.

Gee, Tim Dickinson is not leaning left at all here is he? The major players in his “expert” panel are disgruntled Bush haters.

I love how this rag shows up at my desk(someone gave it to me, I don’t buy Rolling Stone) the same day that the press is announcing the troop surge has cracked down on violence in Baghdad. It never bothers writers like Tim when they are wrong. So just move on to the next sensational article Tim…Surely you can drum up something about the sky falling…

DeezNuts:

Well, Some are cut and paste like Joe Lieberman’s comments. I wrote the first bit, and then pasted his relevent comments on this page.

I also copy and paste past of posts of my own that are relevent so I do not have to retype the same thing.

As well, I have a hip injury right now that is keeping me from my normal routine. That combined with the fact that I don’t sleep much, and know very well how to speed read… I get a lot done.

Non-American:

Fortunately western attempts “colonialism” has been on the decline for quite some time.

It is the resurgance of Islamic Colonialism and expansion you should be worried about.

When Islamists still refer to Spain as Andalusia, or the “officials” at CAIR [the Council on America Islamic Relations] suggest that the constitution in the US will soon be replaced by Sharia, or al-Mujaharoon or any of the other terrorist front groups in England say the same thing about 10 Downing Street… there is still much to be worried about with “colonialism”…

IT’S ISLAMIC COLONIALISM YOU SHOULD BE WORRIED ABOUT.

ARABS ARE FROM ARABIA…Yet many parts of Africa, Asia, Europe and more have been invaded periodicly by Islam.

Google “Hindu Holocaust” and start from there… Probably the most documented ancient example of Islamic Expansionist Brutality. The Taj Mahal itself was built as a Mosque for Muslims with Hindu slaves…

At least we are trying to give people the right to vote for their own govt and stabalize their country so our troops can be phased out.

Gary,
“It is sad that many Jews are forced to embrace the evangelical Christians as their supposedly liberal friends in America do not stand for human rights in other places. Especially for Israel’s right to exist.”

How do you write something like this? This is so utterly wrong in every way it’s amazing. 72% of Americans regard Israel as a friend as of 2005. 66% have a favorable opinion of Israel compared to 25% that don’t according to Gallup. The democrats, beholden to Jewish campaign contributions, are just as hawkish on Israel as the republicans are. The difference is democrats don’t start stupid and counterproductive wars.

“The fact is that the left wing of the democratic party has all but abandoned Israel. That’s why many are heading in the Republican direction.”

???? Whu? Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama just gave speeches the other day at an AIPAC conference affirming thier support for Israel. Again, thier campaigns rely on wealthy contibutions from Jewish voters; they don’t have the business lobbies the republicans can fall back on for cash. Democrats HAVE to support Israel.

“Joe Lieberman’s loss in the Democratic Primaries was as much about Israel as it was about Iraq.”

No. Lieberman’s primary loss was solely about Iraq. Lamont never made any kind of deragatory comment about Israel and the left wing blogs that supported his capmpaign never took Israel up as an issue. It was about Bush hatred. Lieberman was filmed kissing Bush and doing other naughty things with him like supporting that moronic war and the dem voters took that out on him. If there is one undercurrent you can pin on democrats it has nothing to do with Israel and everything to do with hatred of Bush and his election stealing, war mongering, incompetent administration. Israel has nothing to do with it.

How bad will it be? That’s like asking how tragic life is. The question is whether we’re making it worse and the answer is yes. We are in virtually everyone’s crosshairs. This region is not some backwater, it’s the birthplace of civilization and monotheism and science. It is not the fortress of wealth it once was, however. Its poverty is remediable. Its own people must see to that. Let’s get out of the way. As if. First, we need an alternative to their oil and gas. That’ll take a while!

Word 1:

First of all, I really do not consider Obama or Clinton to be “hard left”. Like I said, “the George Soros factions are trying for a hostile takeover of the Democratic Party”.

Clinto actually started her campaign with a more centrist tone on the war, and as the primariy race has heated up, she has had to lerch left. She started with saying it would be irresponsible to set a date certain to leave Iraq, got booed. and the next time we heard her [Iowa a few weeks ago}, she started in with the crap about how "it would be irresponsible for Bush to hand the war over to the next President"

DEMOCRACY IS NOT MICROWAVABLE "READY TO GO IN 3-4 YEARS"

People with more than a short sighted view can see the writing on the wall and know that it is time to hedge bets. My people have survived as a people for more than 3000 years, I would say we have learned a thing or two aboput situations like this over the years.

The Evangelical Christians, with 50 million voters, are the logical choice. Especially if they are going to apologize for the brutal treament meeted out to Jews by Christians over the centuries, and then turn that into constructive action.

Leftist lunacy is like a cancer of ignorance that is growing stronger and stronger and eating away at a once great political party. At least the Evangelical Community has matured enough to embrace a social liberal like Guliani.

BTW...I actually think Obama would make a decent candidate for the positions he stands for, I [and most facts] just happen to disagree with a lot of what he says.

Obama is far more genuine of a person than Clinton. David Geffen was right, “The Clintons Tell Lies Way Too Easily”

When it comes to primary voters, they are usually the base voters of the party. For Dems it is the “hard left” at this time.

Just because Ned Lamont was smart enough to leave the word “Israel” out of his campaigning… doesn’t mean THE HARD LEFT EVER STOPPED BLAMING “THE NEO-CON ZIONIST CABAL” FOR EVERYTHING WRONG IN THE WORLD… INCLUDING IRAQ…

No one I think is in Tikrit, I mean just drop the bombs below, That is you can’t you know fly in but it’s alright, because we all know Baghdad blows… Let me take you down ’cause I’m going to occupied fields…nothing is real…

Word 1:

Btw… you’re claim that the Dems “have to support Israel because they do not have contributions from businesses”, falls flat on its face.

The Trial Lawyers [John Edwards was one and is dialed in there], the Labor Unions like the AFL-CIO, and then you have the big money men like George Soros and the rest of his crew [MoveOn.org etc...] the uber-leftists HAVE A TON OF MONEY.

Throw in Jane Fonda, George Clooney and a bunch of other Hollywood leftist loonies… and I could by a couple of mid sized countries.

Ralph:

I think you might want to go out and by a copy of Bob Dylans album INFIDELS… listen to that one a few times and let me know what you think.

Thanks…

Word 1:

I will have to give MUCH CREDIT to the Holllywood crowd for shining a light on Darfur.

I will also have to say that IT IS PATHETIC that NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE TO STOP THAT HUMAN TRAGEDY and I will always see it as the WORST PART of the Bush Presidency!

Besides post war Iraq, leaving Darfur in limbo is not THE BIGGEST BLIGHT on the reputation of the US but EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN EUROPE THAT HAS A MILITARY.

Few in Europe really seem to grasp what is going on in the world, and just how connected all these events can be at times. They are too afraid of the word “colonialism”. Well, if they learn how to not act colonial, and work on assistance in security and nation building we’d be off to a good start. NATO seems to be getting their learn on in Afghanistan. Lets hope it holds.
Like I said before, “Islamic Colonialism is what we really need to be worried about right now”.

Gary,

Look, choosing the evangelical Christians because you’re worried about the survival of the Jewish people is crazy. Many of the evangelicals believe the end times are going to come within their lifetimes-they’re that cocky-and are willing to support policies that bring it about. How that helps the Jewish people survive is beyond me (last I checked evangelicals believe Jerusalem -along with the rest of the world-gets destroyed.)

A leftist candidate obviously doesn’t have this religious nutty baggage to carry around. The war in Iraq has not made Israel safe, has not made the U.S. safe and has radicalized much of the middle east. Going to war with all of Islam is not going to work; there are better ways to ensure the safety of both Israel and the United States.

“When it comes to primary voters, they are usually the base voters of the party. For Dems it is the “hard left” at this time.”

Yet once a candidate is nominated they’ll move to the center to appeal to the most people. Both Obama and Hillary will do this if they’re nominated because they know they’ll have the votes of the left no matter what: the “hard left” as you call them is not going to abstain from voting in the general election simply because a democratic candidate won’t pull out of Iraq immediately.

“DEMOCRACY IS NOT MICROWAVABLE “READY TO GO IN 3-4 YEARS”

Yet there is already democracy in Iraq, 4 years after the invasion (remember the purple fingers?) The fallacy is that democracy will make countries less violent internally or less hostile to foreign states. We were told democracy would make the middle east safe. We were told we would be greeted as liberators and that the Iraqis would throw flowers at our feet. None of that is true. That is what the “luny left” is pissed off about (not to mention the utter fiasco of the post war planning.) Not because of Israel.

“Just because Ned Lamont was smart enough to leave the word “Israel” out of his campaigning… doesn’t mean THE HARD LEFT EVER STOPPED BLAMING “THE NEO-CON ZIONIST CABAL” FOR EVERYTHING WRONG IN THE WORLD… INCLUDING IRAQ…”

Gimme a break. Almost nobody thinks of the neoconservatives as a “Zionist cabal.” The neocons were wrong and that’s why the “hard left”-not to mention almost everyone else including “pale conservatives” hates them so much. They screwed up Iraq. Rumsfeld, Feith, Wolfowitz. All those guys were pentagon while Iraq was going on. The fault is theirs. There is just no way around that.

And hatred of the neocons doesn’t translate into hatred of Israel. Again, look below at the polls on American’s attitudes towards Israel (if it hasn’t been deleted yet). People simply don’t think invading Iraq was done solely out of benefit to Israel; they think it had most to do with oil and maybe second making money for the defense lobby which had contributed tons of bucks to the republicans in the late 90’s.

And about democrat fundraising, every candidate-including McCain, the flip flopper-has renounced public financing and gone private which means no fund caps which means the more money the better. Republicans are still traditionally superior monetarily because of the business lobby. Democrats need all the cash they can get which means supporting whoever will contribute. (plus unions are almost abolished now=less cash, trial lawyers I think have some kind of cap on the amounts they can win=less cash, etc…).

Gary,

Heh,
another thing you might want to hide from the evangelicals is Tzuriel Refael’s being discovered naked with a pulp fiction ball strapped to his mouth so he couln’t talk. Sadomasochism, it’s lotsa fun.

Israel’s ambassador to El Salvador. Sounds more like “ambarrassment.”

Could you have stacked your panel of experts a little more. Carter and Clinton admin only? Just what are our responsibilities in the middle east according your your experts?

Word 1:

BTW… The Afl-Cio is not going anywhere, and still has a ton of money. George Soros himself is A BILLIONAIRE. There are a laundry list of other “democrats” that are that wealthy.

And frankly, Howard Dean proved that a lot of little donations can add up to a lot of money. The type of brainwashing and propaganda on the net make it easy for people like Dean to create a following.

MoveOn.org also spends a ton of money. The amnount of America/Israel bashing 527 groups out there on the side of the leftist fringe of the party is more than equivilent to the business $ the GOP has available.

The Dems also have the Black and Hispanic vote virtually on lock. Black people may turn away from the Dems as their support for Illegal Immigration has and will continue to affect black people the worst as low end wages are suppressed with the rotation of a permanent underclass the depresses the minimum wage. The M.Wage was just raised, and I expect people to start losing their jobs soon as there are people willing to work for less. Starting with highschool kids looking for part time work.

Bottom line, Jews don’t believe what the Christians do, so they can go on believing in the end times… AT LEAST THEY DO NOT BELIEVE IT IS THEIR JOB TO ADVANCE THE DAY… LIKE A FEW CRAZY IRANIANS HOPING FOR THE RETURN OF THE 12th IMAM. At most, they believe that Jews must be in control of Israel for the second coming of Jesus to happen. I won’t hold my breath for the second coming, but in the mean time I will appreciate their support for Jews running Israel.

As well, they make it a point to have enough respect for Jews not to come to Israel, or even AIPAC and proselatize. I believe there are even some laws in Israel regarding missionary work.

The Israeli parlaiment has a “Christian Allies Caucus” that works closely with the Christian community.

There is a mutually respectful exchange between the two communities to make sure certain norms are always in order.

Thanks for the concern though, but we got it handled…mOstly.

“Victory” , “Our Enemy” what constitutes this in Iraq? We still have not received an answer. All we want to do is live our lives, shop for things and love our kids. Maybe 9/11 was a chance to find peace, to show we are a peaceful nation. We are not safer, just poorer, Third World it seems if the Republicans don’t stop this madness.

three options; 1) chaos – 2) more chaos – and 3) even more chaos…

Heavy debt, increasing world tensions and a divided US; that’s your victory from Iraq, or your loss. Not to mention the unimaginable pain, nightmares, violence and destruction that will last for decades.

I think we’d better stop throwing hundreds of billions away over there and invest about 100 billion in alternative energy research here at home, so can tell them all to pound sand, literally…. and that goes for Exxon, the Bush family, Cheney and that a-hole in Venezuela also…

Of course there is always money to be made, who knows maybe things will work out.
Peace

War without end.
When one looks at the Bush Administration’s constituency, the real people they represent, it is all going very well. Lots and lots of money that no one knows where it goes.
And an American populace deluded that that 9-11 wasn’t always about this. Just ask the MSM about conspiracy.
Less oil? Price goes up! A war that won’t go away? Need more stuff from the military suppliers. Shortages? Price goes up!
Don’t like the way its going wise-guy? Patriot Act and that’s the last we here from you!

I’m surprised that none of the panelists didn’t include in their worst case scenario a situation in which first Afghanistan and then a nuclear-armed Pakistan fall to the jihadists, leading to a nuclear exchange with India, something occurring in tandem with the collapse of Iraq and a broader Middle East war.

I find hard to believe that all “Experts” on the panel predicted such horrific bloodshed and chaos upon a U.S. withdrawal. This line of reasoning follows the same logic of the Bush Administration and the Democratic War Party. In addition, none of the Panelists are Iraqi, nor have they an in depth knowledge of Iraq. A better addition to your panel may have been Dr Munthir al-Kewther who was born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1965. Who studied Islamic and Western philosophy at various Western and Iraqi universities, and completed his PhD in Islamic philosophy at Iraq’s Kufa University in 1995. Dr. al-Kewther, was recently asked what would occur upon a U.S. exit and stated, “The American and British militaries are responsible for the sectarian conflict.” Speaking on the aftermath of a U.S. exit, “The reality is there might be a conflict for a few days “, “I don’t envisage the conflict lasting more than two weeks “. As for what he believes will become of the puppet government, “They will be swept away within hours once the occupiers leave Iraq.” I think your panels predictions are very wrong, and have little understandings of the Iraqis, the very people whose land is the “Cradle of Civilization”.

Great article, terrible news. Can the mess up the situation any worse? Oh, I forgot, they want Iran next.We need to impeach!

“Grim Truths and Bad Options” should be even more of a wake up call than the Iraq Study Group Report was.

It’s time for the Democrats in Congress to bite the bullet and cut off funding for this misadventure before it spirals out of control (even more).

I know for a fact that Iraq will become without an inhabitant. All you have to do is read your bible and believe what it tells you in the books of the prophets. DUUUHH. I also know that the new ASWAN HIGH DAM that was filled with water is now in jeaperdy because of all the silt coming down the longest river in the world, the NILE river. There is going to be millions of both shiite and sunni’s die when the tower of syene falls like the bible tells us. The lord told us in the book of Ezekiel that he would rend it, 1.With a strong wind, 2. Hail, 3. and rain. The lord is in control of all three. Believe it or not.

I actually think it’s gonna be great. We have already won. I give us an “A” for effort. Kudos to George W. Bush.

So, it turns out the Saddam knew what he was doing! Ha! I knew it. These guys have been fighting for 1,400 years. It took a guy like Saddam to keep them apart. GWB is no match for these guys.

I’m glad the experts have said that this conflict will last longer, because it gives me plenty of time to manke money off of it.

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Iraq = Poland 1939

All empires end. Mao did not worry about the US as a threat because he calculated that it would fall as fast as it rose, and it’s starting to look like Mao was right in this assessment.

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Impreach Bush and Cheney now, or prosecute them later when his term expired. American’s standing to the world is low enough and the people should act now to regain their respect. Bush is already the worst president in the American history (never mind about Nixon, Bush has done it 100x worst). Mainstream media should give equaly air time to show the plight and pain of Iraq instead of the daily White House press briefing. The Americans have the right to know what they have given Bush the carte blanche to do that has displaced millions, and caused 100s of thousands of civilian death and wounded from both sides. And Get out of Irag now and apologise officially to Irag and the world for making such monumental mistakes and disturbed the world order. Leave Iran alone. Debase all military presence around the world. Stop meddling with other soverign countries’ affair. Mind their own business. The world will be a better place.

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Worst case scenario-
after experianceing years of total and regular civil war and possible invasion of kurdish statelet by turkish forces to contain what they see as a kurdish insurgent stronghold, iran, the persian shiate(hope i spelled it right) and sunni nations such as syria will take sides and new conflicts will begin. If isreal is involved, things will become messy, yet another arab-isreali war. If they call for aid or saudi arabia becomes involved, the entire world is envolved, nato, the UN, my home country of canada. Terrorism will spread to these nations with strong power, any nation with islamist movements will see their once dead or small conflicts explode in ther faces, Americas war, backed by an allready weary people, will spread far to thin, nations like north korea will gain the upper hand over nations relying on US protection like south korea. Very scary stuff. I say its all the more reason why americans shud stay, not for ther country, but for iraq, they’ve caused the damage here by takeing the one thing that held the place together away (insert name of dictator here) even if they are doomed to failure, it is ther moral obligation to stay as long as they possibly can, what makes jimmie from arkansas life more important then the men women and children being killed by the thouasands before the war has really begun yet. murders and drunk driveing accidents have taken more lives in three major citites in america dureing a single year then all service men killed in iraq period. They must atleast try to make the war as quick and contained as possible!!!

Oh how I fear for my once great country!

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