Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Narrowing the Field
That's easy. Everyone but Moore can go home. It's not that her fellow nominees are coasting. I thought Pike acted the hell out of her role as Ben Affleck's wifey nemesis, but the Academy clearly wants David Fincher's Gone Girl gone. And Jones? She'll grab the gold some day, just as Cotillard and Witherspoon did before her. Not now.
Everyone's bitching about the diss to Jennifer Aniston in Cake. Agreed. But I'm pissed about freezing out Scarlett Johansson for Under the Skin. Or what about Gugu Mbatha-Raw in Beyond the Lights? Oh, wait, she's black.
They nominated Cotillard in a French-language film, so they must really, really like her. But that much? Nah.
Should and Will Win
Moore. Sure, she's overdue (four nominations and no wins). She's also touching and vital as a Columbia professor exhibiting signs of early-onset Alzheimer's.