It's in the air, people. As Oscar Sunday approaches, rumors are flying that No Country for Old Men is no longer a lock as Best Picture. Academy voters hate that damn ending and the fact that we never see the Josh Brolin character get his. Colossal stupidity, of course, but idiot thinking is part of the Oscar process. The hot skinny has it that Juno, the populist candidate, and Michael Clayton, the throwback to the 1970s when Academy voters were last comfortable with movies, are gaining ground. Suddenly, the Coen brothers are Hillary Clinton and Juno and Michael Clayton are on the Obama ticket for change. The Crash upset over Brokeback Mountain two years ago is being cited as precedent. But homophobia was the force that brought down Brokeback—no cornholing cowpokes for Oscar's old-guard, thank you very much. Before weighing in yourselves, take a look at the platforms each movie is running on:
Juno promises you a movie you'll take to heart, an Oscar nominated performance by new star Ellen Page and the only Oscar nominated screenplay ever written by a former stripper and phone sex operator. And Juno is raking in big bucks—$125 million so far. On the downside, the teen pregnancy issue is glibly sidestepped and the character of Juno is irritating the shit out of some people with her smartass patter set to a Kimya Dawson soundtrack.
Michael Clayton promises a movie with a moral center, a leading actor (George Clooney) who was just dubbed by Time magazine as "The Last Movie Star," Oscar nominated supporting performances by Tom Wilkinson and Tilda Swinton, a solid first-time director in Tony Gilroy, who also wrote the script, and—crucial point here—no bloody violence. On the downside, the movie is barely hitting $50 million at the box-office and, well, it actually delivers as a movie with a moral center.
I'd like to try an experiment on this blog and ask you to cast your vote for either Juno or Michael Clayton as a possible Best Picture winner. Let's see if an upset really is in the wind.
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joe | February 23, 2008 12:22 AM
Asking to pick against two movies in an upset will split the vote, leaving the field to "No Country," but, given your ground rules, Best Picture should be "Michael Clayton." The Oscar voters like to vote for the movie that will stand the test of time, and, with no offense meant to "Juno," "Michael Clayton" looks like the movie that will be remembered longer. Of course, by my own rationale, "No Country," with its great story line and the best villain since Anthony Hopkins, will stand the test of time better than the other nominees.
Sam | February 22, 2008 10:46 PM
I usually loathe the Academy's picks. Ridiculous decisions like "English Patient" over "Fargo", "Shakespeare in Love" over "Saving Private Ryan", and hell, if we're talking about the 70's why not "Rocky" over "Network" AND "Taxi Driver", for which Scorcese wasn't even NOMINATED! If Juno or Michael Clayton or even Atonement wins, I'll throw things at the screen, curse the oscars, and wait till next season when I can do it over again. Besides, they snubbed Zodiac and Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, so who even gives a shit. Give Jamie Foxx another oscar and put us out of our misery already.
ChristianH | February 22, 2008 3:44 PM
Here's the major difference between the scenario you've painted and the Crash upset: Crash stood alone as the only movie that could topple Brokeback that year. No other film had the emotional impact that those two had. And, frankly, though I love both movies, I think Crash was just a better film in which the plot moved much more easily.
This year, on the other hand, is something of a clusterfuck. We could see upsets from ALL of the other candidates. The door is jammed full of movies trying to push through. I think enough Oscar voters will shake there heads, say "I can't choose", and go with the safer vote, which is No Country For Old Men. Don't get me wrong: I liked Juno significantly more. I might say that There Will Be Blood was as good or better (though I probably won't). But No Country seems to have it. If it were No Country, Juno, and a bunch of movies without a shot in hell, I'd say "Yeah, Juno's probably got a chance." But it's like Ralph Nader running for office and taking the vote from the Dems...God I hope that doesn't happen again.
Julian | February 22, 2008 3:13 PM
I could probably think of about 5-10 other movies that would hold up much better in this category than "Juno". Although "Juno" was a good movie, to me it doesn't hold a candle to "Zodiac", "The Savages", "Before The Devil Knows You're Dead", and many others including the others nominated. Hands down, if there was an upset between "Michael Clayton" and "Juno" I would love to see it go to "Michael Clayton". I think if "Juno" wins, the Academy will lose all credibility in my eyes. Awarding a movie that in my opinion doesn't even deserve to be in this category.
Chris | February 22, 2008 2:56 PM
I think if there is an upset it will be Clayton. Michael Clayton features three actors that are loved by critics, one that is just loved by the liberal press all around in Clooney, and a director who really hit a homerun his first time out after years of succesful writing. Juno while also refreshing and great falls into a Little Miss Sunshine category. While Juno may pull off an upset or two just because it was so darn cute and made money I dont see critics screwing four movies that are obviously stronger picks. Critics want to award Clayton, I would say that if Tilda Swinton doesnt win best supporting actress, my personal big upset of the night, that a Michael Clayton best picture award could very well happen.
JasonTHX | February 22, 2008 1:24 PM
I admired both Michael Clayton and Juno but No Country and Blood are both examples of filmaking so good, it can make you cry.
Between the two, Clayton and Juno, my heart says Juno. Technically Clayton is the more polished movie but it also has an uneasiness that will probably make the academy members squirm. I'm reminded of the race in 77' between the whimsical Annie Hall and the sleek, shiny Star Wars. Heart won then, it could win again.
I'm still going with No Country, though.
Marty J | February 22, 2008 3:01 AM
If John Hughes rip-off, Juno, wins Best Picture when Zodiac wasn't even nominated, it will render the Academy Awards meaningless to me. They've made a million and one bad choices in the past (Shakespeare in Love??) but this would just be taking the michael.
Erin. | February 22, 2008 12:32 AM
I've seen all five nominated films and believe There Will Be Blood is the best, but of course that doesn't answer your question. Since the recent backlash of Juno I've felt slightly guilty that I liked it-- hell even found it funny, enjoyable and entertaining. So of course I should feel even more guilty for choosing this film in regards to your question....but I don't.
Do I think it think it should win? Probably not.
But do I want it to win? Yes. Every inch of my former teen angst ridden self says yes.
Shawn | February 22, 2008 12:10 AM
Pete, love your reviews and all, but I'm always puzzled by your views on the Academy for its Oscar choices. I mean - look at the Grammys! At least the big 5 movies were all outstanding selections, and even if the so-called 'lesser nominees' succeed, they'd still fall in the top 5-10 movies of the year.
For real, Herbie Hancock winning Best Album over Kanye and Amy Winehouse was like giving an 3 star flick like In the Valley of Elah the win over There Will Be Blood and No Country.
Andres Canella | February 21, 2008 10:34 PM
I'm jumping the gun here as I will only be seeing Clayton tomorrow evening, but I would not be upset if Juno won. One of the big failings of the Academy Awards is that, unlike the Golden Globes, it makes no distinction between dramatic and comedy/musical films, which is always to the detriment of the latter category. Of all the "comedies" nominated in recent years (this includes Little Miss Sunshine, Lost in Translation, Sideways), Juno is the most deserving.
timalex | February 21, 2008 10:32 PM
Since my last post, I went to see Juno at the theatre (now I've seen all five nominees) and I believe it does not live up to the hype. I was surprised by how good Micheal Clayton is. All I can say is "THERE WILL BE BLOOD" is the slap in the face movie goers should appreciate. If you don't see it on the big screen, you are sorely missing out! Drink it up!
David | February 21, 2008 9:23 PM
If it were between "Juno" Or "Michael Clayton." I'd definitely have to go with "Juno." It was such a funny, smart and entertaining film. It might nit be typical best picture material, yet it sure was a joy to see. "Michael Clayton" was powerful and well acted but my heart goes out to the smart-ass punk music loving pregnant girl.
Jim | February 21, 2008 8:04 PM
I still think No Country for Old Men is the best picture of the year (followed closely by There Will Be Blood, they're neck and neck in my mind), but if I had to choose an upset, it'd be Juno because it has most comedic elements out of all 5 nominees and comedies hardly ever get their due.
Rachel | February 21, 2008 7:42 PM
I know you requested a vote for either Juno or Michael Clayton, but I cannot vote for either. However, I wanted to chime in on your likening No Country to Hillary and Juno and Michael Clayton to Obama. Two films this year represent change and risks in movies and Oscar night. Those are No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. Neither is standard Hollywood fare and both expect a bit of thinking on the audience's part (The No Country ending? Think about it. It ties up the metaphor that runs throughout the entire movie.). Meanwhile, Juno and Michael Clayton, while daring at one time many years ago, are standard Oscar and movie-going fare now. They are the Hillarys.
DrJ | February 21, 2008 6:14 PM
"No Country For Old Men" is the most overrated piece of dreck since...well, basically everything Cormac McCarthy's ever written, so I'm sorry to see he's dragged the Coen brothers down with him.
Dan | February 21, 2008 5:51 PM
I was not blown away by "Michael Clayton" at all. I saw the ending coming the entire time, I don't think it deserves to win. "Juno" was wonderful in every sense of the word as was "There Will Be Blood". One of those two movies should win, unfortunately I don't think either of them will. The academy seems to be in love with the lackluster "No Country For Old Men", the movie with one of the worst endings I have ever seen.
timalex | February 21, 2008 4:32 PM
Probably the bext movie made in the last 15 years (since Pulp Fiction), 'THERE WILL BE BLOOD' will get the shaft like 'Pulp Fiction.' PTA is a GENIUS!
Hunter | February 21, 2008 4:19 PM
I just watched Michael Clayton last night and was utterly blown away! I would not be upset if this movie scores an upset victory over No Country for Old Men. Clooney, Wilkenson, and Swinton were all at the top of their game, and Gilroy is a talent to watch after delivering two of my favorite movies of the year (Clayton and the Bourne Ultimatum) I loved No Country, but thought it ran out of steam at the end (and this was the same thoughts I had after finishing the book this summer prior to watching the film; I know it is making a point about the state of the country and all, but come on!) Juno was equal parts sweet and sour for me; I loved Ellen Page and felt she made the script (which was slightly too smart for its own good) relatable. Hopefully she can pull out a Best Actress victory.
Savon | February 21, 2008 3:48 PM
I'll go with Juno. Maybe Juno will do what Little Miss Sunshine didn't last year.
JP | February 21, 2008 3:27 PM
I haven't seen "Michael Clayton" yet. It will be the next movie I rent. Having recently seen "Juno", I believe this movie is justified to be nominated for Best Picture. I think it should win, because I can't remember the last comedy to win Best Picture that made me laugh and feel as much as this movie did.
Justin Gillett | February 21, 2008 3:15 PM
If it was between Juno and Michael Clayton...well I'd have to go with Clayton. Juno is a good movie with an amazing script but I just don't think it is Best Picture material. Clayton is a solid movie with great performances (Tilda is once again an ice queen) and is a movie that seems to come full circle.
juner | February 21, 2008 3:09 PM
I'd pick Juno even when the full field is in play.