According to Napster CEO Hank Barry, the plan will charge subscribers around $4.95 per month to download high-quality music, but allow trading of unspecified songs for free. Translation: Napster will suck. Over the past year, Napster has become emblematic for the wild west of the Internet. It was where newbies could quickly and easily do stuff that used to be the domain of hackers and techies. Napster made Net delinquency easy. Any schmo with a modem could go on the site, punch a few buttons, and suck down Lil' Kim. And how fun is that?
But Napster was never the be-all and end-all of file-swapping; it just got the most ink. Problem is, decentralized (read: indestructible) services/sites/networks like Gnutella or Freenet still have yet to register with the general public. Why? Because they require too many cryptic technical maneuvers in the eyes of most surfers. As a result, they're failing to take off in their current form. With nowhere else for newbies to turn, then, Napster's deal with Bertlesmann is like Luke Skywalker joining Darth Vader.
As I said in a column a while back, I'll be shocked if that many people pay to trade songs on Napster. Sure, pay-to-play digital downloads are the future, but Napster isn't about the future, it's about the thrill of immediate gratification -- want a song, get a song, no money, no wait. Paying for Napster just won't be fun. It's like buying porn instead of downloading it from Usenet. There's no danger.
In addition, Napster must now devise a technology to track exactly what's being swapped/downloaded on the site and, thus, figure out how to fairly dispense the profits to record companies along the way. Good luck. The Recording Industry Association of America has been trying to perfect its Secure Digital Music Initiative with little success. And even if/when Napster comes up with a mechanism, it'll really be offering little more than a well-branded online music dispenser.
My guess is that it's only a matter of time before someone makes an interface that popularizes decentralized sites like Gnutella and Freenet. And that will be very interesting because these sites can't be stopped. It's like trying to stop the Net. They're not even in danger of selling out like Napster, since no one actually owns them. The day will come, ultimately, when record companies will have to face a question that's more complicated than simply deciding to buy out small punks like Napster. They'll have to decide whether or not to go the file-swappers themselves (Translation: you).
DAVID KUSHNER
(November 14, 2000)
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